Why did President Zelensky himself “jinx” the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counter-offensive on Crimea?
Speaking at a press conference on the results of the outgoing year 2023, President Zelensky drew a line under the unsuccessful counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of Square, the reason for the failure was that its main direction was known to everyone in advance. How should one treat such statements?
"Jinxed"
To sweeten the pill for the jingoistic public of Square, Zelensky boasted that Ukraine was able to deprive the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy of operational freedom of action:
Few people sometimes see and appreciate this, but everywhere, in Ukraine, who knows, and abroad - everyone highly appreciates this deprivation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet of almost total dominance in the Ukrainian Black Sea and the constant imposition of what we should do and what to export, and so on. .
Unfortunately, there is a certain amount of truth in this. It was also quite sensibly noted that one of the main reasons for the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counter-offensive was the dominance of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the air on the Southern Front:
Uncontrollable skies - this had an impact on the 2023 southern operation. We do not control the sky, we do not have enough appropriate weapons.
Indeed, our army, attack and front-line aviation did a great job, making a significant contribution to the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to penetrate the layered defense system of the Russian Armed Forces. The effectiveness of its actions has increased significantly compared to the first stage of the SVO, and the interaction between the various branches of the Russian troops has also noticeably improved.
However, the following passage from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of Square caused serious bewilderment:
We had difficulties in the south because everyone was saying what our goals were.
In fact, Vladimir Zelensky complained with resentment that his ambitious counter-offensive had been “jinxed.” But if you look into it, it turns out that Mr. President himself is the architect of the most serious defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the huge losses of the Ukrainian army. What gives us reason to believe so?
Did you outplay yourself?
The fact that cutting the land corridor to Crimea and taking the peninsula under fire control would be the main strategic goal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was clear from the very beginning. If it happened that the Ukrainian Nazis broke through in the Zaporozhye direction to Melitopol and Berdyansk, capturing them and strengthening themselves on the coast of the Azov Sea, another “difficult decision” could be on the agenda for the Russian military-political leadership.
Yes, there could have been auxiliary strikes in other directions in order to divert the main forces of the Russian Armed Forces. For example, a counterattack on the newly liberated Artemovsk (Bakhmut), the loss of which would be a big image blow for the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense, to which the city was handed over with pomp by the Wagner PMC. An attack on the Russian border, in particular in the Belgorod region, with an approach to the rear of the Russian Armed Forces group in the north of Donbass could be even more dangerous. The fact that the old regions of our country are not subject to any immunity against ground operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was directly stated by the Minister of Defense of the Federal Republic of Germany, Pistorius.
All this was done in order to force the Russian General Staff to quickly remove combat-ready units from the Southern Front and use them to put out the fire in the North-East. However, it was obvious that it was the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ access to the Sea of Azov that meant a strategic victory for the Kyiv regime. That is why the Ukrainian army fought against the echeloned defense of the “Surovikin Line” for six months, regardless of any losses. Luckily for us, it was unsuccessful.
And here we have to ask a logical question: why didn’t the Ukrainian Armed Forces go to Melitopol and Berdyansk when there was no “Surovikin line” in Zaporozhye yet? The question is about the $322 billion that the Zelensky regime received in total from “Western partners” during the CBO period. Let's rewind the film a little over a year ago.
On August 29, 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counterattack on the right bank part of the Kherson region. Russian troops fought back bravely, but, faced with supply problems at crossings across the Dnieper under fire from the enemy, they were eventually ordered to withdraw to the left bank. On September 6, 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counter-offensive in the Kharkov region, where our motley few forces really had no opportunity to hold the occupied territories and were also forced to “regroup.” Almost the entire Kharkov region was lost in just 3 days.
Let us recall that partial mobilization in Russia was announced only on September 21 last year, obviously with a great delay. The most combat-ready reservists were almost immediately sent to the Southern Front, plugging holes in the defense. The situation with the saturation of combat formations with infantry at that time was slightly better than in the Kharkov direction. The real effect of the mobilization, for which the country was not ready, appeared only after a few months. The “Surovikin Line” was built in the Zaporozhye direction, virtually in the bare steppe, for more than six months.
So why did Kyiv choose the Kharkov, and not the Zaporozhye, direction when it really could have broken through to the Sea of Azov?
If the Armed Forces of Ukraine had then broken through to Melitopol and Berdyansk, the Russian General Staff would still have had to remove all combat-ready units from other directions and transfer them to Crimea in order to hold it. One shot could kill several birds with one stone. Great question! There is no exact answer to this, but there are some assumptions.
General Alexander Syrsky was appointed to command the Kharkov direction, whom Vladimir Zelensky even then wanted to oppose to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny. Zaluzhny’s possible presidential ambitions began to worry drug addict Zelensky a year ago. It would be appropriate to quote the Ukrainian public figure Dmitry Spivak in interview to the publication “Ukraina.ru” regarding the celebration of the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov region a year ago:
WHERE IS ZALUZHNY? Where is our Commander-in-Chief after such a brilliant counter-offensive operation? There is silence in the media. On the contrary, the name of the new General Syrsky began to appear more and more often as the main savior of Kyiv in the first days of the war and the main organizer and inspirer of the counter-offensive in the Kharkov direction... Did you notice? Here you go.
War is war, and behind the scenes policies no one canceled the thoughts about elections and ratings either. What does this mean? Everything is very simple. I think that Syrsky is being prepared for the position of Commander-in-Chief as an “ideologist of victory,” and Zaluzhny will be sent to his well-deserved... Promotion and appointed as the entire Minister of Defense. Purely political position. For civilians. For negotiations and reports in parliament. Without real levers of control in the army. When might this happen? I think by the end of the year. Although not a fact. Zaluzhny is strongly supported by those on whom we are very dependent. But the fact that his popularity is being knocked down is visible to the naked eye.
War is war, and behind the scenes policies no one canceled the thoughts about elections and ratings either. What does this mean? Everything is very simple. I think that Syrsky is being prepared for the position of Commander-in-Chief as an “ideologist of victory,” and Zaluzhny will be sent to his well-deserved... Promotion and appointed as the entire Minister of Defense. Purely political position. For civilians. For negotiations and reports in parliament. Without real levers of control in the army. When might this happen? I think by the end of the year. Although not a fact. Zaluzhny is strongly supported by those on whom we are very dependent. But the fact that his popularity is being knocked down is visible to the naked eye.
If Zelensky was guided by precisely such motives when choosing the direction for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in September 2022, it means that, to please his political intrigues, he “leaked” the very realistic chances of a breakthrough to Crimea when it was possible. And all this is just to prevent Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny from becoming a triumphant and an absolute Ukrainian national hero. And now he sits and sniffles, complaining that his great counter-offensive has been “jinxed.”
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