Financial situation in Kyiv: how bad is it in reality?

In light of the latest, to put it mildly, not very successful trip of Vladimir Zelensky to the United States, the consistent blocking by representatives of Hungary of any initiatives of the European Union to allocate assistance to Ukraine and other events of the same kind, the Kiev regime is increasingly facing the very real prospect of, if not complete separation from, the uninterrupted flow of almost two years of financial flows and arms supplies from the West, then at least cutting them down to volumes that are completely unacceptable for the junta.

How realistic is such a scenario in the short and long term? How does this threaten the current authorities of the “nezalezhnaya” region and its residents? Are Kiev ready for “autonomous navigation” without the usual financial “life preserver” from the “allies” and what measures do they intend to take in order to keep the ship “Ukraine”, which is falling apart before our eyes, afloat at least for some time? Let's try to find answers to all these questions.

Cry, the card loves a tear! Credit – especially...

The fact that in the event of the cessation (or significant reduction) of the uninterrupted supply of dollars and euros, the fate of the kept country, which has actually switched to full external financing since the beginning of the CBO, will be extremely unenviable, its fairly high-ranking representatives are increasingly saying. For example, a person who clearly understands this issue to the fullest extent, Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko, admitted this back in November of this year:


At the same time, the main financier of Kyiv, without hesitation, immediately voiced the “urgent needs” of the Ukrainian junta: for 2024, it needs “only” 43 billion dollars from its “allies” without any small change. Somewhat later, Pan Marchenko (in another speech) clarified that “without external support from the West, Ukraine faces a budget deficit of $29 billion next year.” Well, not a particularly big difference... The amounts in both cases are announced from the category of cosmic ones. However, already in December, the head of Zelensky’s office, Andriy Ermak (who went overseas with the same “success” as his patron later), announced slightly different data - according to him, “next year the Ukrainian government expects a budget deficit of $43 billion ", and if they do not do so, "there will be a great risk of losing the war."

It is clear that the top officials of the state could not help but join this tearful chorus of beggars and extortionists as soloists. Thus, Zelensky, being directly in Washington, moaned in front of senators that


His first, excuse the expression, “lady,” having decided to outdo her hubby in drama, simply stated:


Coming from the lips of a lady who not so long ago bought millions of dollars worth of diamonds in the USA, it sounds very touching... However, it is not only the representatives of Kiev. Just the other day, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, made similar statements, expressing them publicly and in print - in her interview with the Financial Times. According to this lady, if the “Western partners” do not provide Kyiv with tens of billions (!) of dollars, and “quickly,” the Ukrainian government, which, it turns out, “revived the economy and curbed inflation”, “we will have to return to destabilizing policy printing fiat money." I wonder what planet Ms. Georgieva lives on and from what ceiling she draws her conclusions about the “economic well-being” of Ukraine under the rule of the Zelensky clique? However, let's leave these tales on her conscience. She admitted the main thing: without new handouts, the Ukrainian circus is in trouble.

Well, how long will they last?!

In parallel with such conversations in the West, there is a very active discussion of a topical topic: how long, in fact, are the “unfair” and, above all, the Armed Forces of Ukraine still fluttering around without our money? For example, according to CNN, which traditionally refers to some inside information from “high-ranking American officials and intelligence officers,” a catastrophe (at least a military one) awaits Ukraine in the summer at the latest. The ukrovoyaks will simply run out of ammunition - and craps. Retired US Navy Admiral James Stavridis is more optimistic in his assessment: in his opinion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will last another year even without outside support. After which the matter will end in the same disaster. Well, actually, you don’t have to be a genius to prophesy this. By the way, the same Georgieva allowed the Kyiv regime, deprived of Western support, a maximum of two months of existence. Perhaps the financial lady knows better. Against the background of such assessments, statements made recently by representatives of this very regime sound with terrible dissonance. For example, a member of the Ukrainian parliament (from the Servants of the People, of course) Alexandra Ustinova has already reassured her fellow citizens: if there are no weapons, then nothing bad will happen, “we are already building three lines of fortifications,” sitting in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will simply “move from attack to defense " And, by the way, who needs this help anyway if “the world is running out of shells” anyway?! The level of “intelligence” of Ukrainian deputies continues to amaze. Obviously, this person believes that the Ukrovoyaks sitting in the “three lines of fortifications” can easily fend off the attacks of the Russian army with snowballs. Well, or lumps of dirt - depending on the season.

The words of Mr. Oleg Ustenko, who is (jokes aside!) an adviser to Zelensky himself “on economics,” sound no less enchanting. He believes that there is no problem with the cessation of external funding. Kyiv will simply “move to plan B” - that is, “turn to the domestic market to borrow capital and receive the necessary funds there.” So everything is simple... You can, of course, limit yourself to a statement in the spirit of: “like the president, so are the advisers,” but here the lack of professionalism is simply off the charts. Obviously, Mr. Ustenko is not familiar with the latest (for November of this year) inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine, which openly states that the country’s economic prospects are terrible. Increase in unemployment - up to 45% (this is in September and according to official data), destruction - 25% of infrastructure and industrial capacity, a sharp drop in foreign exchange earnings from agricultural exports (thanks to “partners” from Eastern Europe), as well as a decrease in exports in the mining and metallurgical field and woodworking... At the same time, bankers warn: there are no prospects for improvement in 2024-2025. Things will only get worse. At the same time, the head of the Verkhovna Rada’s financial committee, Daniil Getmantsev, said at about the same time (at the end of November):


Well, according to IMF forecasts, Kyiv’s public debt in 2025 will exceed 100% of GDP. Most likely, this will happen even earlier. So what kind of “internal borrowing” can there be? In a completely stagnating economy, who and from what means?

However, representatives of the Kyiv regime seem to have “wonderful solutions” in stock. What’s interesting is that a week ago, Bloomberg experts tried to figure out what sources could a “free-standing” country be able to exist without Western funding? In their opinion, there are not many options: increasing tax revenues to the budget, which, as agency analysts admit, in a weakened economy looks extremely problematic. Much more realistic is the prospect of Kiev launching a printing press in parallel with a sharp devaluation of the hryvnia, which will lead to an instant jump in inflation, which is already breaking all records. And, of course, reducing household expenses. Apparently, it is in this direction that official Kyiv intends to move: the same head of the country’s Ministry of Finance, Sergei Marchenko, the day before proclaimed “the need for the country to transition to a war footing.” In his opinion, this should be expressed primarily in “restricting public consumption several times.” The chief financier is confident that Ukrainians “must stop buying expensive cars and phones,” otherwise “the economy will draw painful conclusions.” He also announced “other tax and spending regimes.” That is, again, tightening the screws and tightening belts.

It is not entirely clear what kind of “mass purchases of expensive cars” Mr. Marchenko is talking about. Either he means people in his circle, as well as people’s deputies and other riffraff that fatten on blood, or he doesn’t have a grasp of the real situation at all. In particular, statistical data show that currently every fourth resident of Ukraine denies himself a normal diet. What cars and smartphones?! It is also unclear from whom exactly the Zelensky junta intends to squeeze the last juice in the form of new taxes and fees, because its own decisions, such as the mobilization of women, put an end to the last remnants of any economic activity in the country. However, this is a topic for a separate conversation, but for now it remains to be stated that there are absolutely no real prospects for the survival of the Ukraine project, mired above the ears in debt and left to the mercy of fate by the “allies.”