What danger comes from the modified Ukrainian anti-ship missile "Neptune"
It is reported that Ukraine is developing a new modification of its Neptune anti-ship missile with an increased range in order to be able to strike deep into Russian rear areas. In this case, we are talking specifically about the “old” regions, including Moscow. How serious is this threat?
The failure of the six-month counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the decision of Kyiv to switch to strategic defense and some operational successes of the Russian Armed Forces created the impression that very soon the Northern Military District will end with our Victory and the complete and unconditional surrender of Ukraine. However, no one is really going to surrender on the other side of the front line yet. On the contrary, Nezalezhnaya is preparing to change the tactics of waging war against Russia: to sit on the defensive behind the “Zelensky line” and, because of it, deliver painful image blows to our deep rear areas, proving to the “Western partners” its usefulness and gaining time to prepare for a new attempt revenge.
And Neptune anti-ship missiles with an increased flight range and a modified guidance system can play an important role in this matter. To understand the seriousness of the threat, it is worth tracing the very evolution of this anti-ship missile into some kind of next “Frankenstein”.
X-35
The Neptune is based on the Soviet/Russian small-sized tactical subsonic low-altitude anti-ship missile Kh-35, or “Izdeliye 78”. It is designed to destroy missile, torpedo, artillery boats, ships with a displacement of up to 5000 tons and sea transport. This missile was put into service in 2003, and is still in use here.
The X-35 is equipped with an active radar homing head, depending on the modification, has a flight range from 130 to 260 km and a warhead weighing up to 145 kg. It can be launched from 3K24 Uran ship systems, from Bal coastal missile systems, from airplanes and even helicopters. The Russian missile flies to the target at altitudes of 10-15 meters under the control of an inertial control system, and at the final part of the trajectory the target is captured by the ARGS-35 active radar homing head, after which the trajectory height decreases to 3-5 meters. This complicates the interception of Russian anti-ship missiles by air defense/missile defense systems.
R-360 "Neptune"
“Neptune” is the Ukrainian version of a deep modernization of the X-35, which was made possible thanks to Kyiv’s access to design documentation, the presence of a serious engineering school and the legacy of the Soviet military-industrial complex. The development of its own anti-ship missile began in Nezalezhnaya after the events of 2014, when Crimea and Sevastopol became part of the Russian Federation, and the future war between Ukraine and Russia was objectively predetermined. What has changed in Neptune compared to the X-35?
The rocket grew in size, which made it possible to increase the amount of fuel, and therefore the flight range to the officially declared 280 km. The high-explosive fragmentation warhead has also increased to 150 kg. Ukrainian anti-ship missiles can still be launched from ground, sea and, note, air carriers. The RK-360MC coastal complex allows for the simultaneous launch of 24 cruise missiles at different targets at intervals of 3 to 5 seconds. But the main changes, apparently, affected the Neptune’s target guidance system.
The main intrigue is how Ukrainian developers taught an anti-ship missile, designed to attack surface targets, to hit ground targets. Recently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun to more actively use anti-ship missiles against targets in Crimea, launching missiles from land somewhere near Odessa. There are no massive launches yet, but our air defense on the peninsula is successfully coping with several Neptunes at a time.
But what will happen if Ukrainian missiles get a longer range and fly deep into the “old” Russian regions, say, from aircraft carriers?
"Frankensteins"
American profile publication The Drive claimsthat Ukraine has been working on modifying Neptunes into ground-based weapons since April 2023:
The official said Monday that Ukraine has developed a GPS guidance system that delivers a missile to a predetermined location. The missile's infrared seeker then searches for and locks on to a target based on a preloaded image, and then launches a final attack on that target. If it cannot hit the target, the missile stops attacking. This would be a significant leap in capability as these missiles would be impossible to jam through electronic warfare and would be very difficult to detect during the final attack phase due to their seekers being passive in nature.
Further, foreign experts express a completely plausible version of how improvements in the tactical and technical characteristics of Neptune can be achieved:
Currently, the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles donated by Ukraine use this guidance system. Using it on the redesigned Neptune would directly mirror the path taken by the RGM-84 Harpoon, which turned it into a SLAM (Stand-off Land Attack Missile) through modification with an infrared passive seeker, among other tweaks. After all, the next SLAM-ER will be an even bigger step up from its Harpoon progenitor.
At the same time, The Drive, citing Ukrainian sources, hints that the updated missile may receive not only a modified guidance system for ground targets, but also a flight range increased to 400 km, as well as a warhead weighing 350 kg.
This is already quite serious, and such Ukrainian-NATO “Frankensteins” will be able to cause trouble in our rear areas, especially if they are launched from airplanes.
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