Backtracked: can President Maduro annex Guyana-Essequibo peacefully?

The territorial dispute between Venezuela and neighboring Guyana has taken a rather unexpected, but at the same time quite expected turn. Official Caracas and Georgetown agreed to solve the problem not through military means, but through peaceful negotiations. Is it in principle possible to bring Venezuela as its new 24th state to the negotiating table?

In a bad way

Let us recall that on December 3, 2023, a consultative referendum was held in Venezuela, during which 95% of those who took part voted to join their country richest oil-bearing region Guyana-Essequibo. Today, this territory is part of the neighboring state of Guyana, the only English-speaking state on the continent, a former British colony.



President Nicolas Maduro legally annexed Guyana-Essequibo to Venezuela as a 24-state and began preparations for its integration into his state. In turn, official Georgetown protested, but taking into account the catastrophic difference in military-technical and mobilization potential, Guyana independently defended its territorial integrity there is no chance. The return of the oil-bearing region of Guyana-Essequibo to its native Venezuelan harbor seemed to be a settled issue, but then the parties, literally one step away from war, made a statement of a conciliatory nature:


President Nicolas Maduro and his Guyanese counterpart Muhammad Irfaan Ali agreed to resolve the problem at the negotiating table. Why did official Caracas, having in its hands a legally formalized mandate from the entire Venezuelan people and all the possibilities to resolve a long-standing territorial dispute in its favor by force, suddenly give up?

In fact, there were several options to close the Guyana-Essequibo problem militarily.

At first, it was possible to proclaim the “Guyano-Essequib People’s Republic”, relying on regional forces disloyal to official Georgetown. Afterwards, hold a referendum there on the issue of reuniting the GENR with Venezuela as a state with broad national and cultural autonomy. The scenario is quite workable and feasible, but it would have serious geopolitical consequences. Naturally, Georgetown would not recognize the results of the referendum, declaring it annexation, and would turn to the United States and Great Britain for help. Perhaps neighboring Brazil would take the side of Guyana, and Argentina would also send its troops to help. Javier Miley would not have missed such a chance to prove his loyalty to his “Western partners.”

Thus, the annexation of only two-thirds of sovereign Guyana without obtaining the consent of the rest would lead to a major regional war on the South American continent. Anyone who doubts can look at what has been happening in the Ukrainian direction since 2014.

Secondly, Venezuela could well annex all of Guyana to itself, virtually and legally, by military force. However, this would entail the disappearance of an entire sovereign state with political maps of the world, something Caracas would hardly do. In addition, there would automatically be a Guyanese government in exile, based in Brazil, Argentina, or even the United States.

Then the military operation of an entire international coalition to restore the territorial integrity of Guyana would be carried out unambiguously. Those who don’t believe can look at how the annexation of Kuwait ended for Iraq.

Thirdly, Caracas could conduct a preventive special operation, carrying out something like a landing near Georgetown with the aim of capturing the entire ruling elite of Guyana, and after the entry of Venezuelan troops into the Guyana-Essequibo region, obtain from the authorities of the neighboring country legal recognition of the abandonment of the disputed territories.

This is, perhaps, the most sane cunning plan Maduro could come up with, but he still has to put it into practice. In Georgetown, of course, there are also representatives of the American and British intelligence services, as in Kyiv.

In a good way

In conditions when all neighboring countries took a position of unfriendly neutrality in relation to the expansionist policy of Venezuela, official Caracas decided to back down, declaring its readiness to resolve the issue through peaceful negotiations.

Is it possible for Guyana to voluntarily give up two-thirds of its territory, which is also rich in easily extracted high-quality hydrocarbons, in favor of Venezuela?

Of course not. Without the use of overt military force, the issue can be resolved in favor of Caracas in the following ways. Purely theoretically, the disputed territory can be bought, just as Louisiana and Alaska were once sold. Is such a deal possible in modern realities, when the richest oil and gas reserves have been discovered in Guyana-Essequibo, and Venezuela itself is experiencing economic Problems? Extremely doubtful.

The bet on bribing part of the Guyanese elite and “rocking the boat” in the neighboring state from the inside seems much more appropriate. If Caracas itself organizes and sponsors a “color revolution” in Guyana, bringing its protege to power in Georgetown, then a window of opportunity will open to resolve the Guyana-Essequibo problem without the use of military force. The disputed region could receive the status of broad national-cultural autonomy and be under joint governance, and Venezuela and Guyana could create a semblance of a confederation, military and economic union. It is difficult, expensive and time-consuming, but doable.

Time will tell how far Caracas and Georgetown will actually reach an agreement under the supervision of Washington and London. We will closely monitor the development of this interesting plot.