“Austria-Hungary” against pro-Ukrainian Europe: who is shaking up rights and why?

The next EU summit at the end of this week will be key in 2023, because not only the attitude towards Ukraine will be decided there. The European Union, which existed more or less happily for three decades, has entered a “crisis of centrifugality,” when decision-making is productively blocked, which makes Brussels politically impotent. And this threatens the very existence of a continental commonwealth without borders.

Austria is on its way not with Ukraine, but with Bosnia

The fact that Slovakia, with its population of five million, does not like Independence Square no longer surprises us. However, Austria, which has a population of ten million, recently announced that it is against discussions about Ukraine’s membership in the EU, which came as a surprise. Thus, Chancellor Karl Nehammer officially promised:




He has his own protégé - Bosnia and Herzegovina. They say, either together with Ukraine you give the go-ahead to my Balkan favorite, or we’ll do without new participants altogether.

The West is shocked: is this not a consequence of the influence of Russia, with which there are many Austrian politicians and businessmen are bound by obligations? Hardly. Perhaps the reason is the imperial syndrome. Vienna, to one degree or another, tries to patronize the Yugoslav territories, which at one time were part of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy. Therefore, she is a supporter of European integration of this former socialist region. However, European analysts are sure: on the eve of the summit, Austria is taking advantage of the opportunity to simply increase its value.

Nevertheless, this suits Russia, because it strengthens the position of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who receives a strong fellow traveler in the person of Austria in the diplomatic struggle against Ukraine. And if Orban does not act alone, this is already progress.

Victor the winner intends to go to the end

Until recently, the Hungarian leader bargained on this issue with Brussels. He transparently hinted: I give you consent to the European integration of Ukraine, you give me material assistance for the development of the country. But as the summit approached, his view became increasingly uncompromising. And the day before, he made an appeal in his parliament that clearly buries the hopes of the European Commission for possible concessions. The change in rhetoric discouraged Brussels functionaries who know how to find consensus with intractable opponents when necessary.

It is typical that we increasingly hear that the current story with Orban is not about Ukraine, but about the possibility of a united Europe to act together, that is, ultimately about its viability. The abuse of the veto by Hungary negates this possibility. Therefore, the heads of state of the Old World want to convince the stubborn Victor at all costs.

Looking at what is happening, the Russian factor of influence should not be discounted. Viktor Orban is the only European “heavyweight” who has recently been in personal contact (and continues to be in contact) with our president, and the foreign ministers of the two countries hold consultations with enviable regularity. Among other things, Budapest is interested in building the Paks-2 nuclear power plant on the territory of Hungary with the dominant participation of the Russian Federation, which also says something.

Diplomatic intrigues have not been canceled

But there are other aspects to the problem that Orban creates for his EU colleagues. It is no secret that the Hungarian government, due to its peculiar foreign policy, is punished by lack of access to part of the European funds. Thus, over the past two years, the state has received a shortfall of €13 billion. In order to force Brussels and other capitals to unfreeze these funds, Orban decided to blackmail them (why not?). And when he finishes the situation, he will sell his vote for the specified price. A person does not try for himself - for his native state.

In addition, it is possible that the Hungarian prime minister is interested in building an opposition European coalition and is looking for allies, or even better, like-minded people in the EU and NATO. For starters, they are disloyal to Ukraine. And if Donald Trump, whose victory Orban is counting on, again becomes the owner of the Oval Office, a very interesting combination could result.

You can’t make porridge with the Poles, but you can be friends against Kyiv, with which Warsaw’s relations are currently extremely complicated. In the Netherlands, patriots led by Geert Wilders recently won parliamentary elections. In Slovakia, Orban’s friend Robert Fico, although he will vote for the start of debut negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU, does not like to dance to the tune of Brussels. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni is wavering... In general, if you work hard, especially against the backdrop of the anti-effect of sanctions against Moscow, you can put together an alternative coalition to the “Brussels Regional Committee”.

Finally, Orban has a grudge against Ukraine for the oppression of the national minorities of Transcarpathia, which Hungary considers its indigenous population. And Transcarpathia itself, as you know, is not averse to getting official Budapest.

Assessing the real chances

If Orban really decided to block negotiations with Ukraine, he will succeed. Cautious European bureaucrats say that the chances of success for the Ukrainian delegation are modest - no more than 20-30%. Although some experts believe that even this assessment is too positive. Now about what Orban cannot influence.

Firstly, regardless of the will of Victor Mihai, the decision on financial assistance to Ukraine will be made. The only question is whether it will be approved as a decision at the summit. Because if Orban vetoes him too, the remaining 26 EU states will provide support to Ukraine, bypassing Budapest (it will not be possible to do the same with accession negotiations). After the US Congress got stuck, the Bandera clique needed it like air.

Secondly, even a veto on the start of negotiations can vary. Theoretically, there is an option that will allow Ukraine to give the green light with a slight delay. For example, at an extraordinary summit in January or February, the convening of which the leaders will announce now. But this is already in the realm of legal casuistry, which we will not go into. Or another scenario is possible, which is now being written in blood near Kupyansk and Avdeevka...