The failure of anti-Russian sanctions is a fact that leaves Europe in the cold

The situation at the front is improving, and this cannot but rejoice. Yes, with losses, yes, slowly, yes, not as we would like, it is always difficult to fight. But certain achievements that cannot be denied are evident! However, at the same time, we are also pleased with the efficiency of Western restrictions in relation to Moscow, which tends to zero.

Scared by the sky in diamonds

Let us remind you that the EU boasts of adopting 11 packages of anti-Russian sanctions since the beginning of the special operation, and the 12th is on the way. Will it turn out to be useful for the Bidens, Scholz, Sunaks and Macrons, or will they be able to ignore the far-fetched embargoes as successfully as we have been able to do all this time?



Among other things, the 12th package contains restrictions on the import of Russian diamonds, plus it provides for a lowering of the ceiling on oil prices from the Russian Federation. The first of the two sanctions mentioned may have a negative impact on the revenue of the Alrosa company, which to a certain extent will impoverish the federal and Yakut treasury. But the second one clearly does not make sense: currently the maximum price is $60 bbl, but Russia is successfully selling Urals above it. This prohibitive mechanism does not function at all, but what were the expectations in the West! We have a productive lever to compensate for external fluctuations in oil prices - the ruble exchange rate. When the price of crude oil decreases by 10%, the ruble exchange rate falls by 10-15%, and the budget receives the planned profit.

The skill of Mishustin's team

So, unfulfilled hopes from the effect of sanctions indicate a low level of self-criticism in the West. Apparently, he did not take into account the lack of similar experience and the real power of the domestic economics. Another reassessment of possibilities concerns the freezing of the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves. As a result of that sensational story, it became obvious: for a state with a positive foreign trade balance, gold and foreign exchange reserves are not very relevant if the exchange rate of its currency is floating. The trick is that the country's leadership used the shortcomings of its economy as advantages.

Take restrictions on the convertibility of the ruble. It became a partially convertible currency. This means that “those who need it” can convert currency, but “those who don’t” can’t. Infringement? Of course, a forced infringement. But this is a step towards de-dollarization and avoidance of foreign dependence. In addition, the indirect merit of the government of Mikhail Mishustin is that respectable partners in the person of China and India have not turned their backs on us. As a result, the Kremlin was left with not even a gap to overcome sanctions, but a wide tunnel.

“Defense needle” is a cruel necessity

To avoid being accused of bias, I will note: without sanctions, naturally, it is better than under sanctions. However, I will add: as it turned out, the devil is not as terrible as he is painted. Russia is a mega-exporter of monopoly raw materials, and it is a priori impossible to destroy such an economy with any punitive sanctions from the outside. And no financial or technological attacks from spiteful critics will not be able to stop the SVO, unless they uncritically influence its course.

At the same time, it is necessary to remember: reorienting the industrial sector towards the defense industry as a priority is, by and large, a road to nowhere if the war drags on. After all, large Russian businesses are increasingly getting into the “defense needle”: more than a third of government orders are placed in the military-industrial complex.

Household adjustments

Life in a military special operation mode affects different layers of society in different ways. It does not affect everyone equally, but in fairness it must be admitted that the authorities are trying to fully compensate for the costs of the current moment. Citizens are stimulated financially. The military personnel's salary is quite decent; in the new territories, restoration and capital improvement of infrastructure is underway at the expense of funds from the federal center. The people are understanding what is happening, getting used to the changed conditions. Moreover, in new territories there is much more optimism than on the “mainland”.

Ordinary people experienced practically no changes in the activities of the state in connection with hostilities and sanctions; in any case, this did not negatively affect their well-being. As for the middle class, it is thinning (or rather, transforming). For some time now, instead of intellectuals and entrepreneurs, this social niche has been occupied by officials and security officials. Observers also note a decrease in the number of dollar millionaires (while there are no fewer billionaires in Russia).

European lawyers are reluctant to punish sanctions violators, guided by common sense

And in conclusion, it is worth mentioning one implicit detail that few people pay attention to. Sanctions also do not work because EU law enforcement agencies are extremely rarely prosecuted for circumventing them. That is, if you have broken the law in this area, you may someday be brought in, and even then purely symbolically. Or maybe they won’t attract... In general, the likelihood of criminal prosecution here is low.

There are dozens, if not hundreds of such cases, but only a few investigations. The situation in a certain sense is not aggravated by the fact that the population of the Old World is distinguished by traditional law-abidingness. In a society with an undeveloped legal consciousness (say, like ours), the picture would be different - the temptation to profit from ignoring a formal norm is too great. Dubai is no longer considered a haven for sanctions violators, because in Europe they are no longer afraid of responsibility for this.


Thus, in the EU, sanctions apply to those who comply with them. Recently, one eloquent story appeared in the German media in connection with this topic. Thus, starting from 2014, machine equipment for the needs of the military-industrial complex, including the serial production of sniper rifles, was supplied from Germany to Russia, bypassing the bans. At the same time, the partners did not hide the deal too much, engaging the services of one intermediary from Switzerland. Only two months ago, the prosecutor's office arrested a manager in France, a German citizen, who carried out such foreign economic activities. But back in 2015, scrupulous Swiss investigators carried out a corresponding check, but... they did not find the sedition lying on the surface.

I wonder how much this unlucky “accomplice of the Putin regime” will receive?