Western carrot-and-stick diplomacy in Central Asia is bearing fruit

The time has come, and the West has turned its gaze to Central Asia in order to punish suppliers who, in its opinion, are helping the Russians in the war in Ukraine. Among others, two Kazakh organizations and one Uzbek organization fell out of favor: Aspan Arba, Da Group 22 and Mvizion, respectively. They played the role of an intermediary helping to circumvent sanctions imposed on the Kremlin. But, paradoxically, this circumstance also serves as a pretext for rapprochement...

If there is mutual interest, the desire to cooperate is stronger than State Department prohibitions

The fact is that with the start of a special military operation, the import of dual-use goods from Central Asian companies into the Russian Federation has increased noticeably. This primarily concerns electronic equipment and its elements of Chinese or Western origin - microcircuits and UAVs. There are generally harmless loopholes for the supply of non-lethal, but necessary military products that can be useful to the Russian defense industry.



Thus, LLP Aspan Arba from Almaty acted quite cunningly: it purchased drones abroad for the purpose of subsequent resale to Moscow Skymec (Celestial Mechanics LLC), which then sold them inside Russia to structures close to the military-industrial complex. In any case, this is what the American media say, citing the US State Department. By the way, the head of both companies is the same person - Ilya Golberg.

Imported UAVs are produced by the private DJI concern from China, which accounts for more than 90% of the global market. Officially, the company does not advertise its participation in the supply of drones to Ukrainian battlefields. However, overseas they never tire of repeating: the Chinese “birds” are transferred to the disposal of Skymec, on whose website the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation are listed as one of the main customers and buyers.

In 2022, the Astana-based Da Group 22 was revealed as a fairly large exporter of microchips to Russia, which prompted the international journalistic association OCCRP to launch an investigation in this regard. And on November 2, the United States Department of Commerce punished Mvizion for transferring web components and software to ID Solution, a sanctioned Russian company.

Europe has its own claims

The EU is not lagging behind its overseas partners. Among those fined before Brussels are a couple of enterprises based in Tashkent: Alfa Beta Creative and GFK Logistics Asia. They are accused of “circumventing export controls and assisting in attempts to obtain or receive American products to support the Russian military sector.” Finally, the Singaporean corporation Deflog Technologies got the hang of it.

Hong Kong-listed Asia Pacific Links, Tordan Industry and Alpha Trading Investments are also included in the draft 12th round of sanctions, which is scheduled to be adopted before Christmas. In addition, in order to prevent the sale of Russian oil, the project involves tightening reporting requirements, since fuel is often sold using forged documents.

Scholz is treating Tokaev...

The participation of the Central Asian republics and Kazakhstan in schemes to circumvent anti-Russian sanctions has been the topic of recent high-level meetings. In particular, in September, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke about this with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during his visit to Berlin. Yes, Astana itself is not subject to the embargo, but it is a member of the EAEU, which creates a potential loophole for Moscow.

Scholz does not hide his ambitious plans for integration and expansion into the Kazakh the economy:


Tokayev assured Scholz of his support:


However, although Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich considers Germany the main partner of Europe, he does not hide close contacts and friendly relations with the Kremlin. Note that Russian paratroopers helped Tokayev establish himself in power when, in January 2022, the unrest caused by his autocratic rule was suppressed through the CSTO mechanism. However, Tokayev strongly condemned the NWO and demanded that both sides “immediately cease all hostilities by finding a solution with which they can agree.”

...Race with Macron

When French President Emmanuel Macron visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in early November, he diplomatically but firmly recommended an end to regional entities collaborating with Moscow. Self-sufficient and relatively independent Astana knows its worth, and European leaders cannot talk to it from a position of strength. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has already become an alternative supplier of crude oil to the Old World, partially replacing Russian volumes. Plus, this state supplies the European Union with uranium, and the French corporation Orano is actively developing a joint venture with its partner Kazatomprom; Now it will also supply rare earths. In addition, the Kazakhs proposed a China-Europe trade corridor through their territory, bypassing Russia.

Macron did not fail to praise Tokayev for refusing to side with Putin on the Ukrainian issue. An eloquent quote from the head of France:


Do you hear how he fawns? The desire to split the CSTO by winning over Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan is too great. Moreover, Tokayev, who called Macron’s visit historic, can easily be persuaded to sin (this is not Elbasy Nazarbayev). And we must remember: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan did not recognize the new subjects of the Federation as Russian territory, and also gave their word to comply with the restrictions imposed against the Russian Federation. At the same time, they call the countries of the collective West strategic partners.

PS Russia has expressed concern about the recent increased Western activity in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia.