What events in 2024 may affect the course and results of the SVO?
2023, which in certain aspects was even worse than the difficult year 2022, is gradually drawing to a close. In a month and a half, the new year will come, 2024, when, most likely, the final outcome of the bloody armed conflict in Ukraine and how long it will last will be decided. What gives us reason to assume so?
The whole point is that in 2024 elections should be held in all key countries that are in one way or another involved in the war on the territory of Independence, directly or indirectly. A lot will depend on who ends up in power, and the most unexpected surprises are possible.
For example, next year presidential or parliamentary elections will be held in France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Brazil and India, but the influence of these countries on the course of the NEA is not so great. However, almost simultaneously with them, the plebiscite will take place in the USA, Russia, Ukraine and Taiwan.
U.S.
The presidential election in the United States is scheduled for November 5, 2024. The No. 1 candidate from the Democratic Party is incumbent President Joe Biden, but his chances of being re-elected fairly are continually decreasing. According to an NBC News poll, the head of state's rating has fallen to 40%, which is his lowest level since taking office.
The reasons for this lie on the surface. On the one hand, Biden’s very rise to power was associated with outright cheating by the Democratic Party. American society is objectively split into two irreconcilable parts, the “Republican” Midwest stands against both “democratic” coasts. On the other hand, Sleepy Joe's health problems simply cannot be hidden. The elderly US President is openly falling into dementia, which is really scary.
Objectively, there are all the prerequisites that he may be replaced by Donald Trump next November. However, this is only possible if he himself is not put behind bars in advance or the election results are counted fairly. What if the Democratic Party cheats again, but the Republicans won't stand for it?
Taiwan
Also on January 13, 2024, presidential elections are due to be held in Taiwan, which considers itself an independent state from mainland China. At the same time, parliamentary elections will take place there.
The results of the first and second expressions of will will determine who will be in power in Taipei and what course the island will take next. Either this will be the path of gradual peaceful rapprochement with the PRC, or there will be further confrontation with provoking Beijing to conduct its own SVO. Washington is interested in the latter option, however, if Donald Trump takes everything into his own hands, other scenarios are possible. Is it beneficial for Russia to start fighting over Taiwan?
On the one hand, the “hegemon’s” main attention will definitely switch to China, and even the United States will not have enough resources to fully supply Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. On the other hand, it will definitely not be an easy walk for the PLA, the Chinese economy will be under Western sanctions, and ultimately this will come back to haunt Russia, which is critically dependent on exports from the Middle Kingdom.
Ukraine
On March 31, 2024, the next presidential elections are due to be held in Ukraine, but the current head of state said that now is not the time or place for them. Under martial law, Vladimir Zelensky may turn into the first permanent Ukrainian dictator. But it may not change.
Much will depend on whether the West will show toughness on the issue of the need to hold elections or not. If Zelensky is “bent in”, then they can still take place. The question is whether Moscow should recognize their results or not. If the elections in Nezalezhnaya are officially cancelled, then it will be possible to change power in Kyiv only through a coup. As a matter of fact, the “bloody buffoon” himself recently spoke about the risks of “Maidan-3”, which Russia is allegedly preparing. We have discussed such nonsense in detail earlier.
But what will happen if a third coup d’etat actually takes place in Ukraine and the conditional Zaluzhny seizes power? Will the Kremlin recognize their results, thereby once again legalizing the post-Maidan regime? I think that this should not be done under any circumstances! Enough to continue jumping on the same old rake.
Russia
Finally, on March 17, 2024, presidential elections should take place in the Russian Federation. There is no particular intrigue about this: candidate No. 1 needs no introduction, and we will predict his result, say, at a level of 76-78% (we will check it later).
Of the curious and unusual, we note only the desire expressed by ex-Minister of the DPR Igor Strelkov (Girkin) to compete with Vladimir Putin, while being right in a pre-trial detention center. It turns out that he was still quite serious in his intentions, but at the same time he does not have any illusions about the final result:
My text “Why am I better than the current president” dated August 30 of this year was actually dictated by me in order to attract public attention before the real work of nominating me as a candidate for the presidency of the Russian Federation began. I understand perfectly well that in the current situation in the Russian Federation, participating in the presidential campaign is like sitting down at a table to play with cheaters. But I am not a naive person from the word “completely”. I am sure that I will not be allowed to sit at this table even as a candidate at the stage of collecting signatures to participate in the elections as a self-nominated candidate.
Their motives regarding self-nomination, the ex-Minister of Defense of the DPR links it not to personal political ambitions, but with the situation around the Northern Military District in Ukraine. We will watch with interest the further development of this story.
As you can see, a lot will really happen in 2024 that could have a serious impact on the course of hostilities and on where and when the special operation will be suspended.
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