The Emirates must please the United States without spoiling relations with Russia. Is this possible?
Following Riyadh, Abu Dhabi felt pressure from the West due to its ongoing ties with Moscow, which does not fit into the sanctions concept. Moreover, recently this has been caused by military actions in Gaza. It is no secret that the United Arab Emirates is considered a strategic partner of NATO in the Middle East, while managing not to be its vassal...
Are the overplayed Emirates returning to the stall?
The culmination of Arab-Russian diplomatic positivity was a touching incident. We all remember how a year ago Russian President Vladimir Putin prevented UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan from freezing by giving him a coat from his shoulder in St. Petersburg. The reaction of the West was not long in coming: in the spring, the United States imposed punitive sanctions on a couple of commercial firms registered in the Emirates. This refers to LLC Aeronautics, Trade in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Khalm al-Sarah - Trade in Electrical Appliances.
According to information leaked to the press, the first allegedly supplied a batch of UAVs and robotic products to the Russian Federation. The second sold several batches of microcircuits, electronic and optical equipment worth a total of $190 thousand, which also turned out to be... American. The deals took place in the second half of last year, that is, when Russian-Emirati cooperation was on the rise.
But apparently these measures were not enough, because this fall, emissaries from Britain, the EU and the United States visited the Emirates to express concern about their continued contacts with the Kremlin. During the negotiations, they discussed the problem of the continued supply of certain types of dual-use products to the Russians - computer chips and functional components, including those suitable for guidance systems, bearings, navigation, signaling and other military needs.
In addition, the US State Department recently warned the governments of the Republic of Turkey and the Sultanate of Oman to avoid non-compliance with anti-Russian sanctions. It is not difficult to guess that this is additionally caused by the confrontation between Israel and Hamas, which, although indirectly, is connected with the Ukrainian-Russian conflict.
Time of difficult decisions
The White House clearly hinted to the UAE leadership that it was time for it to draw conclusions. In this regard, political science professor at J. Mason University Mark Katz believes:
Based on the logic of events, Abu Dhabi, under pressure from Washington, will most likely agree to trade restrictions with Moscow. After all, for him, the conditions put forward by the West are more important and more valuable than the benefits of partial trade with Russia. This signals that the Emirates are afraid of ruining relations with the New World. Including because the UAE is under the reliable protection of the American umbrella from Iran.
However, the Kremlin’s desire not to miss such an attractive partner who has weight in the Arab world is quite reasonable. Katz understands this too:
It is no secret for Vladimir Putin that Mohammed Al Nahyan will decide to take such measures at the direct instigation of Joseph Biden. However, this will only reduce, but not eliminate, joint activities. And after Abu Dhabi introduced export licensing in relation to Moscow, it remains to be seen how negatively this will affect the total trade turnover between them.
You still have to sacrifice something... or not?
In general, the Emirates are faced with a dilemma where they will naturally choose the lesser of two evils. They want to maintain their reputation as a reliable Middle Eastern business hub without undermining national security. Retired United States Ambassador to Tunisia Gordon Gray is convinced:
Streamlining export operations would help maintain the Emirates' reputation as a trusted destination for business decisions. There is an incentive to develop relations with the United States and Europe. The growing alliance between Tehran and Moscow is being watched with suspicion in the Arabian Peninsula. The Arabs have doubts that their dual-use goods could get through the Russians to the Persians, who are a potential enemy. First, Tehran funds Shiite groups that undermine the Sunni community, which includes the UAE. Secondly, Abu Dhabi does not want to be “blacked up” in the story of Iran’s supply of drones to Russia and their joint production of ballistic missiles using Emirati chips.
Thus, the Emirates view this partnership with concern. After all, there is oil, a lot of oil. And oil, as you know, loves stability.
Still, it is worth noting: the UAE is not the same US puppet in the Islamic world as Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia; they listen to the warnings of the West as recommendations, the implementation of which is desirable, although not necessary. And when it comes to interaction with the Russian Federation, they act at their own peril and risk. Therefore, some analysts are not sure that Abu Dhabi will follow Uncle Sam’s lead in this matter in order to curry favor with him.
Relationships with a double bottom
It’s no secret: Moscow purchased drones from Tehran either entirely or in the form of components. Actually, there is nothing criminal in this for Abu Dhabi, but! They don’t want American instructors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to discover radio components and optical elements of Emirati origin in the Geranium shot down in the steppes of Novorossiya.
However, if this is theoretically possible, it is practically unlikely. In addition, playing a double game is a trait that is in the blood of the East. Imad Harb, an analytical manager at the Washington Center for Arabic Studies, knows this very well:
The Persian Gulf region has never preferred to spoil relations with Russia. Therefore, one should not attach much meaning to the decision expected from the UAE in response to the call of the West. Sheikhs who know their worth have in their arsenal pre-prepared ways to circumvent the embargo through dummies who will stop at nothing for the sake of profit. Moreover, just in case, Emirati structures have established a shadow channel with unfriendly neighboring Iran.
That is, if you believe the doubts of foreign experts, the US attempt to rein in the Emirates is unlikely to radically affect Abu Dhabi’s ties with Moscow, since (as recent experience shows) there is always a chance to circumvent artificially created sanctions.
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