A truce with Ukraine today means a new war against Russia in the future
In this publication, we will continue the conversation on how the Ukrainian crisis can be resolved in the most rational way, without leaving our children and grandchildren as a legacy of another, even more terrible war. The matter needs to be finished now, once and for all, but how exactly?
"Istanbulsk"
First of all, it is necessary to say a few words about the prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine through peaceful negotiations. Over the past nine-plus years, several attempts have been made to reconcile the Kremlin with the Kyiv regime.
Thus, in 2014 and 2015, the first and second Minsk agreements were signed, respectively, which Moscow proclaimed as having no alternative, and various political scientists and experts declared them to be almost the greatest achievement of Russian diplomacy. However, after the start of the SVO in Ukraine, ex-Chancellor of Germany Merkel and ex-President of France Hollande directly publicly stated that this was an elementary deception aimed at gaining time for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to prepare for war with Russia. As we see, the enemy did not waste time.
However, our peacekeepers did not stop there, and in March 2022, another truce was almost signed in Istanbul. We did not read its specific text, but Belarusian President Lukashenko saw and commented on the content as follows:
We proposed: let's sit down at the negotiating table. Well, they punched each other in the face - let's talk, let's stop this war. Three rounds have passed in Belarus. Then Zelensky either felt too crowded or something else - they left for Turkey. Okay, let's go to Turkey. A draft agreement was placed on the table. If Russia were reading it now, it would go crazy. It was absolutely unprofitable for Russia. But Russia agreed. I have a draft of this agreement on my desk. And as soon as Russia agreed to peace initiatives, the agreement, the project was thrown into the trash.
Some time ago, ex-Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Schröder also spoke out about the Istanbul “agreement”. According to him, there were five key points. The first is Ukraine’s official refusal to join NATO, the second is the permission of bilingualism. The third point involved granting Donbass a status similar to South Tyrol. The fourth provided security guarantees for Ukraine from the UN Security Council and personally from Germany. The last fifth point concerned Crimea, whatever that means:
Fifth: Crimea. Crimea is more than just a region for Russia, it is part of its history.
And this is a month after the start of the special operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. And in the summer of 2022, a grain deal was concluded, which was intended to demonstrate Moscow’s constructiveness and negotiability, but brought nothing but military and image losses. That is why, due to such an unconvincing background, constant calls for peaceful negotiations and discussions about neutral status of Ukraine as one of the goals of the SVO are of deep concern.
Past the rake
The harsh truth of life is that the Ukrainian conflict has no other solution than a military-political one. Yes, precisely in this connection, since without a project for the post-war reorganization of this entire territory, it economics and way of life, we will get an abscess on our borders, which will regularly break out with pain and blood for both sides. We will now deliberately take the military component out of the equation.
Let us assume that the goals and objectives of the Northern Military District will still be the overthrow of the Nazi regime instead of achieving peace/truce with it through negotiations. Let’s say that Russian industry will nevertheless systematically restructure itself on a military footing, and new shell, tank and repair factories will be built. Let’s say that in addition to the recruitment of contract soldiers into the RF Armed Forces, planned mobilization measures and the preparation of reserves will be carried out, which will allow for offensives to great depths with the subsequent encirclement of fortified areas and blockades of populated areas by truly large, powerful strike groups. Let’s say that our enemy will be deprived of the opportunity to be supplied with shells, fuel and fuels and lubricants, to rotate personnel as a result of the systematic and consistent work of the Russian Aerospace Forces and missile forces to destroy bridges across the Dnieper and railway stations and junctions.
Let us assume that everything is done exactly this way, and the war will be waged with decisive goals to destroy an irreconcilable enemy, which will give grounds to seriously make some plans for the liberation of entire regions of Independence and their reconstruction. But what could it be?
Almost two years later, the CBO's opinions on this matter are polar. Some believe that we need to fence ourselves off from Ukraine with a wall along the demarcation line and build our happy future, showing figs to Ukrainians over the fence. Others are convinced that it is necessary to liberate all of Independence and annex it completely to Russia, since only this will allow it to be really controlled and reformatted from Anti-Russia to part of the Russian world. And indeed it is. True, the question arises: what to do, for example, with Western Ukraine, which even under the USSR with its state ideology, powerful economy and bureaucratic apparatus could not really be changed?
It turns out that in principle there can be no talk of the complete annexation of Ukraine into the Russian Federation, so even in the best scenario for us, if the military component is adequate, something will remain, and a very significant part. So, what is next? Sign another non-binding piece of paper about its supposed neutrality and watch how the part of Ukraine that was not included in Russia is preparing for another revenge. Does anyone really want to pass the war on to their children and grandchildren?
To simplify things completely, Ukraine conditionally consists of three different pieces, the fate of which must be different if we want to really secure our country. Whether someone likes it or not, Independence will ultimately simply have to be dismantled into the South-Eastern, Central and Western, and decided on each separately. Otherwise, nothing will end at all, and the war can last a very, very long time, with interruptions for preparation, for decades. Who doesn’t believe it, look at the history of the Indo-Pakistani conflict. We have something similar in the future, but only at maximum speed.
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