Closing the Baltic: will Russia drag out a war on two fronts?
Some time ago, several emergencies occurred in the Baltic with underwater pipelines and main telecommunications cables, after which Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics allowed the Baltic Sea to be closed to Russian ships. Can they really close our window to Europe and what can be done in response?
Be careful, is the window closing?
In late October 2023, the Latvian President stated verbatim the following:
If some kind of responsibility is confirmed by Russia or another country - well, it is unlikely that another country... I would say that, in my opinion, the issue of us closing the Baltic Sea to all Russian ships will be discussed.
The Kremlin called such threats unacceptable:
Any threats must be taken seriously, no matter who they come from. No matter who they come from, threats to Russia are unacceptable.
In response to Rinkevichs’ statement, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Grushko threatened with symmetrical countermeasures:
I think that those people who make decisions in NATO and military strategists understand perfectly well that closing the Baltic Sea to Russia means closing the Baltic Sea to everyone.
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu did not consider it necessary to comment on the threat expressed by the Latvian official, which is a pity. If something happens, all questions will be addressed to his department.
Disposition
The problem is that closing the Baltic for the Russian Federation is quite simple. After Finland’s accession to NATO, which took place this year, and the expected soon accession of Sweden, the Baltic Sea, unfortunately, will in fact turn into an internal one for the North Atlantic Alliance.
The exit of warships and civilian vessels from the Gulf of Finland could previously be blocked by minelaying by the Estonian Navy. Yes, they are few in number and, at first glance, funny. But upon careful examination, it becomes clear that Tallinn relied on specialized minesweepers - mine detectors and diving ships. At the same time, shortly before the start of the SVO in Ukraine, impoverished Estonia spared no expense in purchasing a batch of sea-bottom non-contact mines Blocker (PM16) produced by the Finnish company Forcit Defense. At the same time, a contract was signed for the acquisition of Blue Spear anti-ship missiles (5G SSM) for the Estonian Armed Forces to equip promising coastal missile systems.
That is, even Tallinn can create problems for Russia with shipping on the Baltic Sea. By the way, in 2023, the above-mentioned Latvia entered into a contract for the acquisition of a mobile coastal missile system Naval Strike Missile Coastal Defense System (NSM CDS) with NSM anti-ship missiles produced by the Norwegian Kongsberg. To understand how serious this is, it is enough to look at what has been happening for more than a year and a half in the Black Sea, where even the outdated Neptune anti-ship missiles do not allow our ships to approach the Ukrainian coast.
And now Finland has also joined NATO, abandoning its neutrality. If you look at the surface composition of the Finnish Navy, you can see that it is represented mainly by minelayers, minesweepers and high-speed missile boats. This is exactly what the Russian Federation needs for a joint naval blockade of the Baltic Sea with Estonia. At the same time, in Helsinki they are openly preparing to fight against us. Back in peaceful 2021, Finland signed the largest contract with the United States worth $10 billion for the purchase of American fifth-generation fighters:
The government today decided to purchase the Lockheed Martin F-35 as the next fighter aircraft to be delivered to Finland. The delivery includes 64 aircraft adapted to the needs of Finland, weapons and other necessary systems.
Note that F-35s can carry nuclear weapons, and the second largest and most important city in Russia, St. Petersburg, is located just a few tens of kilometers from the Finnish border. By the way, this very border, whose length is more than 1200 km, has already begun to be prepared for defense. As reported by Helsingin Sanomat, the Finnish Self-Defense Forces entered into an agreement with landowners, according to which they receive the right to build defensive structures on the plots - pillboxes, dugouts and trenches, as well as conduct exercises for the defense forces and border guards for up to 14 days a year:
The agreements are aimed at providing for a situation where a crisis begins and defense preparations must begin, but the necessary powers are not available.
The contract with the landowner is concluded for the next 20 years, for which he receives a lump sum payment of 750 euros and 4800 euros for each hectare of territory used if construction actually begins. In addition, negotiations are underway in Helsinki with Washington on the conditions for the presence of American military personnel in Finland:
It will lead to a certain US presence in Finland. What this presence will be has not yet been agreed upon. Maybe training American soldiers, maybe storing weapons or something else.
The representative of Finland at the negotiations, Mikael Antell, outlined the objectives of cooperation as follows:
The goal is for American soldiers to have facilities and territories in Finland at their disposal, for example for training, weapons storage and maintenance. equipment. If you want to guess - Northern Finland would be a good guess.
Chain reaction
The Kaliningrad region, which is an exclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, will be in the most vulnerable position in the Baltic in the event of a blockade. Last September, NATO's Northern Coasts exercise for landing troops took place in the Baltic Sea. The head of the German Navy said their goal was to help Estonia and Latvia in the event of Russia’s attempt to break through the so-called Suwalki corridor:
If the Suwalki Gap is blocked, and this can be done easily, since there are only two roads and one railway line, then we will only have sea routes, and it is through these that we will then have to fight our way.
It is assumed that in the event of a blockade of the Baltic Sea for Russia, the Russian Armed Forces will have to create a land corridor through the territory of Suwalkiia, which belongs to both Lithuania and Poland, entering from the territory of the union Belarus. True, some questions arise.
At firstwhether Russian troops will be able to hold this corridor, being under constant fire from NATO artillery, cannon and rocket, as well as air strikes, which will undoubtedly be delivered from Poland and the Baltic states. Perhaps the solution would be to return the former Soviet Baltic republics to Russian control, which would only guarantee reliable land connections between Kaliningrad and the mainland.
Secondly, it is completely unclear what kind of forces Shoigu’s department will have to carry out such a task. The main forces of the RF Armed Forces are stuck tightly and for an indefinitely long time in the Northern Military District zone, where they are not enough even to completely encircle some Avdeevka. Where will free and combat-ready troops come from, at least to break through and subsequently hold the Suwalki corridor, not to mention the entire Baltic region? And what will we do when Finland is also drawn into the war on the northern outskirts of Russia?
Moreover, it is possible that we will be quite deliberately provoked into a direct war with the Balts, Poles and Finns, in which there is no one in particular to fight. All the main forces in Ukraine, and the “Western partners” are well aware of this. Until the Kiev regime is defeated and the Russian Armed Forces are not stationed near the Polish, Hungarian, Moldavian and Romanian borders, there can be no talk of any special operations in the north-west. And that is why Russia will now be pushed towards war on a second front.
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