Washington says it can handle a two-front war, but Asian allies don't believe it

At the moment, the military partners of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region are seriously concerned that Uncle Sam has stopped paying attention to them, focusing on Gaza and Donbass. And indeed, has America weakened its Chinese-North Korean flank in this regard and should it support Canberra, Manila, Seoul, Taipei and Tokyo as zealously as it has done so far?

Narrow-eyed politics

The chiefs of the Pentagon and the US State Department, respectively, Lloyd Austin and Antony Blinken, will soon pay visits to India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan. They will have to convince the governments of these countries that Washington’s involvement in conflicts at the intersection of the West and the East is fully consistent with the problems of Southeast Asia and the Far East.



As if on cue, the Asians urgently needed American weapons, and obviously Australia, Taiwan, Japan will experience delays in military supplies equipment, which the Yankees promised. Retired Taiwanese Defense Minister Andrew Nien-Tzu Yang is concerned:


Meanwhile, half a month after the Middle Eastern events on October 7, a patrol ship and a Chinese Navy vessel blocked a Philippine caravan heading to resupply the disputed second Thomas Atoll in the South China Sea, which the Celestial Empire considers its territory. The result was a rather acute incident between the two countries in the more than 20-year history of confrontation related to the rights to this maritime zone.

And on October 26, a Chinese Air Force J-11 fighter (a Chinese copy of the Su-27) almost collided with an American B-52 during a night maneuver over the South China Sea. As a result, the US military described the actions of the Chinese pilots as an “unprofessional interception.” But Beijing is a little short on humor, so it took such words literally and harbored a grudge. It’s not without reason that the commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific region, Admiral John Aquilino, quite seriously said the other day:


Who knows! Sir John boasts of the presence in the region of two aircraft carriers, the George Washington and the Ronald Reagan, but it is well known that the aircraft carrier fleet is an excellent target for enemy cruise missiles. So aircraft carriers today rather act as a deterrent, and even then not always.

The Chinese will not tolerate dictate and will insist on their own

It must be said that cases of dangerous approach of fighters of the People's Liberation Army of China with USAF aircraft in neutral airspace have recently become common practice. Suffice it to say that over the past two years, more than 180 such incidents have occurred, which is more than in the entire previous decade. And if we take into account the aviation of American allies, there are up to 300 critical flight incidents.

By the way, the Americans are seriously considering the possibility of China starting hostilities against Taiwan in 2024 in order to divert resources and attention from the conflict in Donbass. Teme political challenges and economic risks taking place today in the Asia-Pacific region were even devoted to the First Sydney International Strategic Forum, which took place in early November. However, nothing really concrete or interesting was said there, so there is no need to dwell on it in detail.

Let's go a little deeper into the story. I remember that George Walker Bush promised during the 2000 election race:


A month after a series of historical terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the next owner of the White House, as if nothing had happened, went to Beijing to meet with Jiang Zemin, where he was as quiet as water. Largely at the instigation of China, the outbreak of the war in Afghanistan brought the United States closer to India’s main rival, Pakistan.

This is how it happens: stupidly ruined relations with the Chinese were established, but ruined with the Indians out of the blue. And all because the narrow-minded Bush Jr. did not study history well at school, forgetting about the Vietnamese and Korean lessons that were bitter for America.

“We run and chew gum at the same time.”

It is no secret that the Chinese avoid direct negotiations on military issues with the United States because they do not trust them. But they don’t trust because the Yankees don’t keep their word. Why China, here the angry public of its loyal vassal - Indonesia - is holding anti-American protests in connection with the events in Gaza! Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore Chong Ja Yang remarks on this matter:


Tokyo is perhaps the one suffering the most from the Asian capitals in the current crisis situation. Not only have some of the weapons destined for it been redirected to Tel Aviv, but the Japanese are also experiencing an increasing oil hunger due to shortages of Middle Eastern hydrocarbons. And if before the Land of the Rising Sun was engaged in organizing demonstration military maneuvers with its allies, and together with America it sought to get ahead of Chinese technologies, now it has to solve more pressing and prosaic problems.

Eloquent in this sense is Blinken’s response to the question of whether the Ukrainian-Russian and Arab-Israeli conflicts will overshadow the Asian agenda:


Couldn't have said it better. And Ukraine seems to be fading into the background. They say, why should we, smart and beautiful, break apart now?