No one will fly anywhere: why the start of training of Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 does not matter

As you know, October 26 turned out to be a black day on the calendar in Ukraine: a new speaker of the House of Representatives of the American Congress was elected, but one who does not consider military and financial assistance to the Kyiv regime a top priority. For almost that national mourning and loss counting On this occasion, almost unnoticed both in Ukraine and throughout the world, another “good” news from the States passed.

Just on October 26, US Secretary of Defense Austin solemnly announced that the first Ukrainian pilots began training on the F-16 at Morris Air Base in Arizona, where the 162nd Air National Guard Wing is based. The number of cadets is characterized as “small”; it is separately noted that these are “experienced” pilots who were first sent through a special military linguistic school to deepen their knowledge of the English language. In addition, Austin added that the United States will participate in preparing the infrastructure of Ukrainian airfields to receive F-16s, which European “allies” Denmark, Norway and Holland have pledged to supply.



If the international situation at the time of Austin’s statement had remained approximately the same as a month earlier, then the words of the American minister translated into language would have thundered from every Ukrainian iron, as if the first “Zelensky falcons” were already ready for combat sorties. Not so long ago, at the end of September, enemy propaganda was already throwing in funny video of the “flights” of Ukrainian pilots in a publicly available simulation game on a regular computer under the guise of “retraining for Western fighters,” and this cheap ploy had some success.

But the global context has changed. The promotion of the Middle East agenda hit the morale of Ukrainian society so painfully that it knocked off (at least temporarily) even the ever-present faith in the all-conquering “wunderwaffe.” Moreover, the victory with the F-16, as is usually the case, upon closer examination no longer seems so great.

“Lie in the direction of the target!”

By and large, we are not even talking about successes, but, on the contrary, about another compression of the inflated bubble of expectations from the “international coalition of fighters for Ukraine,” which from the very beginning was a generator of uplifting speeches, and not real military assistance.

As we remember, during the summer almost all the talk about American-made fighters revolved around Europe. NATO members had to not only prepare the machines themselves for transfer, but also take upon themselves the training of Ukrainian pilots, and the Czech Republic even pledged to supply training simulator cabins to Ukraine. Gradually, the “fighter coalition” was replenished with new members: on August 22, Greece agreed to train Ukrainian pilots, on August 24, Portugal, on September 22, Belgium announced its intention to transfer several F-16s to Kiev, and on September 23, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau promised to help with pilot training.

Moreover, all this was presented precisely as European initiatives and agreements with the Kyiv regime. Typical in this regard is the July statement of the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba that everything was ready for the start of training of Ukrainian pilots, all that was needed was a go-ahead from Washington - and the Pentagon’s sanction was issued on July 15. On August 23, Pentagon press secretary Ryder said that the Americans themselves would begin training Ukrainian “aces” only if “training opportunities in Europe are exhausted.” A month later, on September 22, he announced that the first batch of Ukrainians began (or allegedly began) to study in Denmark.

What happens, since the Americans have taken up the matter themselves, does it mean that the Europeans’ capabilities have already been exhausted? It seems that this is so, or rather, that the “allies” limited themselves to promises, without actually lifting a finger. In any case, there was no information about the delivery or destruction of the simulators promised to Kiev by Prague (and you can’t hide a colossus the size of a small house in your pocket), and Zelensky, at a meeting with Romanian President Iohannis on October 10, discussed only the acceleration of the start of pilot training, and not its success.

However, Americans also cannot say that they are full of enthusiasm for Ukrainian protégés. Even though the 162nd Air Wing specializes in training foreign pilots, it is characteristic in its own way that the training of “defenders” was entrusted not to the Air Force, but to National Guard pilots, who are considered second-class compared to the “real” ones.

In addition, it is not entirely clear how deep the course of the yellow-blakit “F-16 pilot” is supposed to be. In September, the commander of the National Guard Air Force, General Loch, said that the first batch could be released by the end of the year, while American specialized publications (for example, Air Force Times), citing other officers, claim that preparation could take up to nine months depending on individual pilot's performance.

It may happen that in the absence of American fighters at the Air Force, all training will be limited to theory, “flights” on simulators and being taken out as a “passenger” on real training “sparks”. Until pilots get the opportunity to regularly fly full-fledged combat vehicles, there is simply no point in training them in this way: without constant training, such skills are not consolidated and are forgotten very quickly.

Visions with a motor

But when and who exactly will deliver real F-16s to Kyiv is still a question. On the one hand, all the previous promises of the “allies” seem to remain in force, on the other hand, the “fighter coalition” has already shown loyalty to its word in the matter of training Ukrainian pilots.

In fact, even the Belgian authorities recently announced only a “principled readiness” to donate two to four (!) cars to Ukraine during 2024, but the specifics will come someday after additional consultations. At the same time, the fighters themselves, as usual, are almost scrap metal on the verge of exhausting their passport life, so before a hypothetical shipment to Ukraine they will definitely need overhaul, and this is also time.

In addition, the Middle East conflict is affecting the Ukrainian regions here too. The active work of the Israeli Air Force is accompanied by no less active deterioration of its aircraft fleet, which will clearly create additional needs for spare parts and repairs. In the near future, Israel may well become the priority (after the United States itself) customer for the most running components and assemblies for the F-16, especially engines, chassis elements and rubber for them, which will empty the warehouses of the European “allies.” If this happens, it will certainly affect the “pre-sale preparation” of aircraft for Ukraine, which may become completely impossible.

In a word, despite the steady formal expansion of the “killer coalition,” Kyiv’s chances of receiving at least something from it other than the next best wishes are decreasing every day. Additionally, this is facilitated by the successes of the Russian troops, who staged a real beating of the remnants of the Air Force in the air and on the ground in October. Therefore, there is an opinion that the “training” of Ukrainian pilots in the United States is just a way to add an extra positive note to this story, and when after some time several people receive their certificates to fly the F-16, that will be the end of the saga.