Effect of surprise: could Russia shoot down 24 Ukrainian planes in 5 days?

October 27 2023 20

One of the most curious News Recently, this is an official statement by the head of the Russian military department that in just five days we managed to shoot down as many as 24 enemy aircraft. It sounds so cool that there were people who treated the information, if not with distrust, then with a fair amount of skepticism. Was it so or not?

"Litakopad"

At first the official one made a splash summary The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for the period from October 14 to October 20, 2023, which contained the following data on Air Force losses:

As a result of the effective actions of fighter aircraft and air defense units, 12 aircraft were destroyed over the past week, including 10 Mig-29 and two Su-25 attack aircraft, as well as two Mi-8 helicopters of the Ukrainian Air Force. Over the past 29 hours alone, seven Ukrainian Mig-314 aircraft have been shot down by air defense systems. In addition, within a week, 35 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed and 200 HIMARS missiles, five operational-tactical missiles, two S-XNUMX anti-aircraft missiles converted into strike versions, and six JDAM guided bombs were intercepted.

It sounded so great that various military experts and para-military bloggers began to speculate about how we were able to organize such a large-scale “litakopad”. Versions were expressed about an aerial ambush a la Bryansk, but with the help of our air defense, as well as about some kind of special operation to misinform the enemy, who was allegedly lured into strike range, forcing him to concentrate his aircraft on the airfield, which allegedly suffered a massive attack.

However, already on October 27, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, during a meeting with military personnel of units of the Vostok group, spoke about the appearance of certain new weapons in Russia’s arsenal:

We had complexes that shot down 24 planes in five days.

As follows from the statement of Sergei Kuzhugetovich, the number of destroyed enemy aircraft during this time managed to grow even more. What kind of “wunderwaffe” is this?

Do what you have to do

From explanations to the agency TASS Some informed source on this matter suggests that we still haven’t got any special “miracle weapons”:

During the SVO, Russia used the S-400 Triumph air defense system in tandem with the A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, which ensured the success of using the system against enemy aircraft.

The S-400 air defense system is the newest of the domestic long-range air defense systems in service. Its firing range is from 250 to 380 km, height – from 5 m to 60 km. The instrumental range of the 91N6E radar is set at 600 km. It would seem that if you stationed a dozen S-400 divisions in Crimea and on the territory of Belarus, almost the entire territory of Independence would be covered by an anti-aircraft umbrella, and you could forget about the danger posed by British-French cruise missiles launched from Ukrainian Su-24s.

Unfortunately, even the very good Triumph is not suitable for the role of “wunderwaffe”. Ukrainian aviation, manned and unmanned, prefers to fly at low and ultra-low altitudes to make them more difficult to detect on ground-based radars. The optimal solution is to raise the radar as high as possible: on specialized AWACS aircraft of the A-50U type, as well as on hypothetical drones and AWACS balloons. According to a TASS source, this is exactly what was done, which gave stunning results.

Frankly, the attitude towards this information is somewhat mixed. On the one hand, the use of our few A-50/A-50U for aerial reconnaissance and issuing target designation data to missiles is something that should have been done from the very first days of the Northern Military District, and what all sane military experts and para-military bloggers have been repeating for more than a year and a half contract. On the other hand, the fantastic nature of the enemy’s loss figures even allows one to believe in them, since it was clearly a surprise for the Ukrainian General Staff and its NATO advisers that they would suddenly start fighting against them, as if in a textbook.

Come what may

However, the famous aviation blogger and retired military pilot, who publishes under the nickname Fighterbomber, commented “litakopad” rather restrainedly:

They ask me for comments. I am commenting. Even if they weren’t shot down, but wounded, not 24, but 2.4, then that’s still good. This is much better than not shooting down anything at all. So there you go. I'm personally glad. And you rejoice.

As they say, take it as you wish. However, they did not leave him behind, and the military officer still considered it possible to more comment in detail gigantic losses of Ukrainian aviation:

SAMs, like IA, have been working “in conjunction” with RLDNiU (A-50) aircraft since the appearance of such aircraft. Worldwide. About 60 years exactly. Of course, such aircraft can see much further than ground-based radar stations. And, of course, they can see the target (not just the air one), and calculate approximately where the target will be after some time. And, accordingly, share this knowledge with anyone.

The same knowledge can be shared by a child with a phone who sees the plane with his own eyes. The question is that both the RLDNiU plane and the kid with the phone have nothing more to help either the fighter or the air defense system. Both of them do not have sight knobs and target illumination stations, which illuminate it so that the missile flies towards it, until the moment its “sight”, the so-called PARLGSN, starts working (if it has one, of course).

As an option, I can assume that we have added a normal active homing head to a missile (it doesn’t matter what the base is), which, arriving at the approximate coordinates of the target (no matter where it was received from) from serious distances, locks on the target and hits it. But this is all, of course, just my thoughts. No more.

Now this is interesting. It is possible that Defense Minister Shoigu meant new, improved missiles for them by new complexes. But this is just a hypothesis from blogger Fighterbomber. Be that as it may, the beginning of the active use of an AWACS aircraft in the NVO zone and its use for its intended purpose means a more effective use of existing weapons.

It seems like a rational solution to more widely use Sych container-type radar complexes in the North-East Military District zone, hanging they are not only under Su-34 fighter-bombers, but also other types of aircraft - Su-24, Su-27, etc. This would make it possible to create a continuous radar field over the LBS and deep behind the enemy’s rear.

Information

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Sergey Tokarev

+4

27 October 2023 16: 17

there were people who reacted to the information, if not with distrust, then with a fair amount of skepticism

crests have not believed for 9 years that they were deceived with the Maidan They don’t believe me and that’s okay. There is no point in throwing pearls in front of swine.
1. Flight
  
  -1
  
  29 October 2023 14: 12
  
  Quote: Sergey Tokarev
  there were people who reacted to the information, if not with distrust, then with a fair amount of skepticism
  
  crests have not believed for 9 years that they were deceived with the Maidan They don’t believe me and that’s okay. There is no point in throwing pearls in front of swine.
  
  Well, some Jews can be pretty convincing
Sergey Tokarev

+1

27 October 2023 17: 26

“Why has the number of aircraft shot down increased so sharply? Firstly, because these planes appeared in Ukraine. These planes were transferred by the countries of Eastern Europe, about 30, in my opinion, planes, half of which were transferred by Poland. So they started to fly.

Well, our ability to not just shoot them down, but to detect them has increased. And here we can only guess. Today there are assumptions that our long-range radar detection aircraft, the so-called “doomsday planes” A-50, also called “Russian AWACS,” had a hand in this. This is an Il-76 with a saucer on top... This is an aircraft that can detect targets at a distance, if I’m not mistaken, up to 650 kilometers. That is, it covers most of Ukraine.

But in addition to the fact that it can detect both aircraft and cruise missiles that are flying, Moreover, it can simultaneously track up to 300 targets. And the tactical crew, these are operators, can simultaneously control the actions of 12 of our fighters. He can give 12 fighters different targets at the same time, and they work on these targets, they don’t even need to see them on their screens - he just gives target designation, the fighters shoot, they hit.

At the same time, it can provide information for independent guidance to another 60 aircraft. That is, you can imagine the value of this device. It is no coincidence that he was attacked in Belarus. If this aircraft was operating, that’s great, because questions were asked, why the A-50, why our early warning aircraft do not operate in the Special Military Operations area.

So, let's hope they started working. In addition to the fact that they can target fighters, they can also target air defense systems, the same S-400,”

– Kots noted.
unparalleled

-7

27 October 2023 19: 34

There are two options
Or ukrov have stealth technologies based on new physical principles, so that planes are invisible in the visual spectrum (no satellites, eyewitnesses, or UAVs) see fallen planes.
Either everything goes according to plan and success, as always.
In the TG during the period when 24 aircraft were destroyed, only 3 destroyed by a lancet at the airfield, two helicopters and, it seems, 1 Su25 shot down.
Why feel sorry for them? That’s right) So it’s not far from 1000 aircraft
1. Sergey Tokarev
  
  -3
  
  27 October 2023 21: 53
  
  Will the military commissar be waiting for eyewitnesses at the scene with a summons and who will he tell? The media is controlled by Zelensky.
2. Siberia55
  
  0
  
  28 October 2023 00: 05
  
  Awesome! Those. The UAVs must arrive in advance (or fly next to the missile) to where the Ukrainian plane decides to fly and where it will be shot down by the missile.
  Enchanting!
  1. unparalleled
    
    +1
    
    28 October 2023 10: 49
    
    What? What kind of nonsense did you write, did you understand?
    After all, it turns out that in order to record something, the UAV needs to fly along with the rocket, you have to think of something like that.
    Apparently, like in games, after two minutes the textures of the plane disappear, right?
    What can I say, the excuses are on point.
3. svoroponov
  
  0
  
  11 November 2023 17: 57
  
  Our early warning aircraft do not need to be in the air all 24 hours. Since Ukrainians practically fly not from main airfields, but from sections of highways and other auxiliary sites poorly equipped with take-off and landing radio equipment, these areas are practically unsuitable for receiving aircraft at night. It is still possible to take off, but not to land. They also try to fly at low altitudes on jet aircraft. So Ukrainian aviation only flies in PMU. Its ability to fly at dusk and at night is limited.
  Daylight hours are decreasing, which limits the very duration of aviation operations in simple weather conditions. And if in the summer it was still possible to fly for 12-14 hours, now closer to winter it is only 8-10 hours, or even less in winter.
  The aircraft were shot down after they had launched missiles when returning to the landing sites. It is very difficult to detect these sites at low altitudes; you need to gain altitude somewhere up to 500-1000 meters to detect and visually approach. There are no aces with intuition in Ukrainian aviation. Therefore, they were quickly detected by an AWACS aircraft and transferred to air defense systems. Well, then it’s a matter of missiles. Missiles with new control and guidance units came into service. It has already happened that one of these missiles hit a low-altitude maneuvering target at a distance of 468 km during testing. Today, this is the longest distance for air defense missiles in the world. So the declared ranges of 250-360 for these missiles are a bit too small, but the military knows better. At these ranges, Ukrainian aircraft were destroyed en masse. By the way, these missiles were not detected by anyone and, accordingly, the aircraft crews were not notified. That is, they were simply not seen by the radars of detection aircraft, nor NATO troops, nor remote ground-based Ukrainians. And the airborne target locators also did not identify them, or were identified at the last moment, when anti-missile evasion was no longer possible. Perhaps these missiles, when they detect a target, no longer move towards it by inertia after running out of fuel, but instead there is a stage in the missiles that allows you to increase the speed in the last dash to the target. It seems that the Americans have a similar air-to-air missile with this behavior or it is a German development in their arsenal, but these missiles have a range of more than 2 times less.
Disinfo

+1

28 October 2023 06: 03

I believe the Russians may have had this ability for a while but decided to hold off on using it until they were ready for a massive counterattack, otherwise the West may have devised tactics and equipment to counter this ability. They also may have supplied western jets sooner, if the Russians had totally destroyed the AFU Air Force completely. You can call it a Russian Rope-A-Dope if you will. The Russians are now using their complete air defense and offensive abilities with combined fire from the S-400 systems, AWACS and the R-37M and all assets of their air force. Buckle Up, Hell is coming for dinner.
alexku69

+2

28 October 2023 09: 51

Be that as it may, the beginning of the active use of an AWACS aircraft in the NVO zone and its use for its intended purpose means a more effective use of existing weapons.

A50s have been and are being used since the first day of the SVO. Just as the 40N6E had the possibility of homing, so it is with the known capture sector, just as the A50 could only give out the coordinates of the target and predict the location several times in advance, so it can. Just as he couldn’t carry the 92N6E, he still can’t carry it.
And if they really hit a target at an over-the-horizon distance at an altitude of 1000m, then FB probably has this not as a hypothesis, but rather as a statement that the missile was taught to fly somewhere where the target should be and capture the last RLGSN
jekasimf

+1

28 October 2023 12: 31

There was an assumption that they started using the SU 57s. Their advantage is that NATO AWACS, which fly along the Romanian and Polish borders, do not see them. This means they could not warn Ukrov.
Our A 50s have really been used for a long time. But the problem is that NATO AWACS constantly monitor the space and transmit data about our aircraft to Ukrainian pilots.
syrom-dmitry

0

28 October 2023 12: 39

So what, it’s not possible to see in infrared from space? Yes, through the clouds? Any plane at any altitude? Maybe what gadget you need to send? I don’t think sanctions have been introduced against such people, and it’s possible to bring them across the border with students...
The comment was deleted.
alsi61

-4

28 October 2023 13: 33

Here the question must be asked: why weren’t they shot down before? There are only a few of these A-50s. One is new, the rest are Soviet. And they are needed for a real war. There is no talk of 7x24 flights. They shot it down with some kind of import. They showed that the import had arrived and was working. Apparently they showed kamikazes on the F-16. It’s easier to install F-16s than to find suicide bombers. It is easier to install radars in Crimea on balloons. But it's not time yet. We don’t need a victory over Ukraine, we need to crush the United States. That's why we don't sink aircraft carriers? There is an opportunity, but it’s too early. Yesterday, for the first time, it was said that we might drown. There is no need to scare the fish. The enemy is left with the illusion of success. We must give those who want to die for Ukraine the opportunity to realize their dream. The idea that all enemies of Russia will die will slowly but surely reach the stupidest ones, including the F-16 pilots; it’s time for them to slowly retire, especially on aircraft carriers.
boriz

+4

28 October 2023 15: 00

In this case, separate (or even separate) And the 50U was taught to integrate directly into missile control, bypassing the S400 operator.
The standard antennas of the complex cannot see low-flying targets at a great distance. At a distance of 100 km they cannot see anything below 2 km.
The A50 sees such targets and can transmit information to the S400, but the plane is performing an anti-aircraft maneuver and when the missile approaches the indicated location, the seeker finds nothing. The fuel runs out and the rocket self-destructs. Finish.
If the modernized A50U is included in the online missile control scheme, then it can quickly change target designation. The rocket will fly where it needs to go. Some time gap is removed from the control. Previously, the pilots went to the landing station at low altitude, performing a maneuver. On approaching the LBS, they launched (if necessary, briefly gaining altitude). Then at low altitude they went back. Also with maneuver.
Now the missile, with the help of the new (upgraded) A50U, can realize its range potential. Previously, she could simply fly far, but now she also knows where to fly at any moment if the target is flying low and maneuvering. It is guided online by A50U.
The owl, in this case, is not a helper. This is not its functionality.
But we need more of these modernized A50Us.
The military-invaded ZSU fleet was not ready for such a surprise. Now they have sorted it out, losses will decrease. But the completion of tasks will be greatly limited.
Alexander Berdyaev

+1

28 October 2023 18: 51
There are also AWACS balloons, which Amer’s AWACS do not see, since they have practically no EPR as such (remember the Chinese probe that drifted through the USA?). This photo is from one of the Kursk carts:
1. renics
  
  0
  
  28 October 2023 19: 00
  
  This is an unmanned 5G airship.
renics

-1

28 October 2023 18: 57

Most likely, they used a new DLRO A-100 Premier aircraft with a newly developed airborne radar already turned on. The A-100 radar is a more advanced system than the A-50, and is superior to most similar vehicles of a potential enemy. Its capabilities include simultaneous tracking of up to 300 targets at a distance of up to 650 kilometers. Thanks to target designation from the A-100 radar, the R-37M missiles are capable of reaching a maximum range of 400 kilometers. Also, thanks to joint work with the S-400 Triumph air defense system, the AWACS aircraft detects targets, and also calculates their speed and trajectory and transmits this information to the air defense system. Having received them, the S-400 also calculates the optimal flight path of the anti-aircraft missile to the area of the detected target, upon reaching which the missile turns on the homing head. Thus, the launcher gets the opportunity not to use its own radar and becomes invisible to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and NATO.
1. Gregazov
  
  +1
  
  28 October 2023 21: 37
  
  At one time, I held the position of leading test engineer for the A-50 radar in the testing team. It's honestly really fun to read your posts. In 1991 left Vladimirovka for Zhukovka to write a dissertation based on the test results. Already in those years, my supervisor set me the task of working together with two Il-76s. One is an A-50 and the second is a launcher that fires long-range missiles (of which a lot can be loaded into Il) into the target designation zone and then independently aims at the target. I think I wasn’t the only one working on this task. Now we see the result of the work of a very large team, which (I’m parodying Klyuchko) is not understandable to everyone. Nevertheless, I am very happy that ideas born in the USSR continue to amaze the world.
Daniel K

+1

29 October 2023 00: 32

The author could have simply written - I don’t know what was there and I don’t know if at least one was shot down or not
Genar_7_2023

+1

30 October 2023 15: 13

And yet, Russia does not have air superiority in the Northeast Military District zone.