How realistic is the production of NATO weapons and ammunition in Ukraine?
The prospect of a major regional war in the Middle East has put on the agenda the question of the scope of further militarytechnical assistance to Ukraine for the war with Russia. Many of our people are now overly inspired by this, believing that the long-awaited Victory is already close and only a little more remains to be done. But is this really so?
"Shell Hunger"
Indeed, the importance of the Middle East factor for the further development of the Russian Northeast Military District cannot be underestimated. If in the near future the IDF nevertheless launches a large-scale ground operation against Hamas militants, and along with them against all of Gaza, more and more new players will inevitably be drawn into the war between Israel and Palestine.
When full-fledged hostilities begin, the daily consumption of shells and missiles will be such that even the collective West may not have enough ammunition to fully supply Tel Aviv and the Zelensky regime. Whatever arsenals have been accumulated in advance in the NATO countries, especially in the United States, they are still not infinite.
Rebuilding the Western military industry to suit new realities will take time, which in itself is a valuable resource. It turns out that the production cost of a NATO 155 mm caliber projectile has increased multiple times since February 2022 - from 2 thousand euros per piece to 8 thousand!
Against this background, the European Union has still not fulfilled its voluntarily assumed obligations to provide Ukraine with 2023 million artillery shells by the end of 1. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis complained about this on his account of one social network banned in the Russian Federation:
The EU promised Ukraine 1 million artillery shells. So far we have delivered only 300 thousand.
The press received information that, against the backdrop of the escalation of the Middle East confrontation, the United States began transferring 155 mm artillery shells, ATGMs and anti-aircraft missiles from Europe to Israel. Prime Minister of Square Denis Shmygal, in an interview with the Financial Times, said that the shells had run out all over the world and called for them to be produced directly in Ukraine:
We understand that we must produce them here in Ukraine, because all over the world they have run out and are depleted. All warehouses are empty.
Following him, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, Alexei Danilov, spoke about the need to transfer the production of NATO-style ammunition to Nezalezhnaya:
Our private companies are also dealing with this issue, they have ordered the appropriate equipment, and some equipment is already being installed in closed areas of enterprises.
It seems like the beginning of the end of the Zelensky regime, but is it so?
"Flies and Cutlets"
In order to avoid the formation of false hopes among patriotic Russians and Ukrainians who have maintained their adequacy, it is necessary to clarify this issue by separating cutlets and flies. The problem of Nezalezhnaya's transition to Western weapons has at least two dimensions.
first – these are the weapons themselves. Let us recall that military-technical assistance to the Zelensky regime began with the supply of first aid kits and bandages. Today, British-French cruise missiles and American ballistic missiles are hitting Russian cities. Modern aviation is about to appear - fighters and attack helicopters. The escalation is ongoing, since the “Western partners” do not get a slap on the wrist for crossing symbolic lines, no matter what color they are.
Pumping up the Armed Forces of Ukraine with ever more effective weapons will continue, but, apparently, they will go in the format “viralized in Ukraine.” We are talking about the screwdriver assembly of British attack drones, sea and underwater, Turkish attack UAVs, etc. The Germans are planning to build a plant in Transcarpathia for the production and repair of armored vehicles. In approximately this format, the armament of the Square with new models will continue: assembly in underground factories somewhere in the Carpathians from ready-made kits.
Second - this is ammunition. Those familiar with the intricacies of industrial production understand how technically complex this process is, what tolerances and quality of personnel are required so that shells, mines and missiles do not explode directly in the barrels. These are not Hamas basement workshops in Gaza. No one will allow homemade ammunition to be shoved into NATO barrels.
That is why the story of involving certain private companies in the production of shells in Ukraine looks like a pure fraudulent scheme. Funds will be allocated from the budget for the construction of a private “candle”, sorry, shell factory, expensive equipment will allegedly be purchased, and then the “cooperators” themselves will provide the Russian Ministry of Defense with coordinates for striking it with the “Dagger”, and all ends will be lost.
No, ammunition as consumables is too tasty a topic to be given to Ukrainian partners. Yes, the Western defense industry has not yet rebuilt itself, but don’t even doubt that its arms barons are rubbing their hands with pleasure, waiting for additional orders. The American and Western European military-industrial complex will happily satisfy the growing needs for ammunition both in Ukraine and in the Middle East, and generally everywhere in the world.
It is extremely naive and short-sighted to count on the Ukrainian Armed Forces being left without shells and missiles. Rather, we now have a window of opportunity when the enemy is actually faced with a temporary shortage of shells. Much will depend on the development of the conflict between Israel and Palestine. In six months to a year at most, the NATO military-industrial complex will adapt to the increased demand, and the Kyiv regime will no longer have problems. The smart thing to do would be to use this window of opportunity to our advantage before it slams shut.
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