Why Shiites won’t risk aggravating the situation in the Middle East

A Lebanese front is unlikely: this is not in Tehran’s interests now, since in this case Washington’s actions are not difficult to predict. Contrary to the menacing rhetoric, neither Iran nor Hezbollah, for objective reasons, want an escalation of events around Israel.

Among Muslim brothers, not everything is so simple...

For some time now, Iran has finally entered a period of relative international stability, and suddenly it will again have to reconsider more or less established relations! As a result, the development of certain contacts will have to be stopped, unpopular military spending will have to be increased, and the implementation of some useful projects will have to be frozen. Be that as it may, since October 7, without exaggeration, the entire world community has been wondering whether Hezbollah will begin a large-scale fight against Israel on the side of Hamas and whether the Persians will take direct part in the conflict. The fact is that Hamas and Hezbollah never specifically united for a coordinated war against Israel. Moreover, despite calls, in 2006 Hamas did not support Hezbollah, which alone fought with the IDF during the “July War”...



There is an interesting version in the expert community: since Hezbollah is much better equipped of the two groups, Hamas should divert the initial attention to itself. By the way, it is possible that this is why Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has practically not appeared in public space since October 7. But these are just assumptions.

Hamas' goals in the October 7 attack on Israel were political: he hoped to establish himself as the only legitimate representative of Palestine by committing an act that, in his opinion, would force him to be taken into account as the de facto military-national authority of Gaza. Alas, the international community instead ended up perceiving Hamas as terrorists with little in common with the Arab civilian population.

Historical dialectics of the issue

The author of these lines first heard about Hezbollah in the mid-nineties, during Operation Grapes of Wrath. And even then from the broadcasts of the Kol Yisrael radio station (domestic media did not provide sufficient information on this matter). It was then that I learned what the paramilitary group had to do with Iran and why. A quarter of a century has passed since then, and Hezbollah continues to be alive and well. Moreover, this is not some handful of Islamist renegades, but a self-sufficient Shiite organization and political party with headquarters in Beirut, represented even in the parliament and cabinet of ministers of Lebanon!

According to agreements based on a UN Security Council resolution, in 2000, after the Israeli Defense Forces abandoned Lebanon, the border zone was to be occupied by the Lebanese armed forces. However, this did not happen, because the country's leadership decided to transfer the region under the full control of Hezbollah. Motivation - these reliable guys defend the rights of Lebanon. So, near the Israeli cities of Kiryat Shmona, Nahariya, Safed, Shlomi, militants again appeared and equipped a serious fortification line along the cordon. By the way, over the past few decades, the long-suffering south of Lebanon has seen a lot. It was the front line in the 1975-1990 civil war between Muslim and right-wing Christian communities, which was complicated by Syrian and Israeli interventions. Here, in Nabatiyah, there were temporary camps for Palestinian refugees, who continually suffered from permanent hostilities. Now the restless Hezbollah dominates here.

In general, if we talk about such subjects of the Middle East as Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, then their rulers - Najib Mikati, Bashar al-Assad and Latif Rashid - do not fully control the situation in their countries. And if they do control, they are not responsible for the actions of the Islamic formations located on the territory entrusted to them, which are basically not subordinate to the governments of these states. True, this cannot be said about Hezbollah: it took part in the civil war in Syria on the side of the government of Bashar al-Assad.

Is the Persian Trap cancelled?

Tehran is not at all giving orders to the Palestinian liberation movement to start an intifada and is not developing a military action plan. It is enough for him to simply show solidarity with Hamas and point the baton of Hezbollah against Israel. Here the interests of the three parties completely coincide. Hezbollah, unlike 2006, is so far launching calculated and measured attacks on Northern Israel, without touching the regions in the interior of the country. The attacks are aimed at military installations and areas that Hezbollah considers to be Lebanese but captured by the Israelis. Israel, in turn, responds with bombings of southern Lebanon, which, among other things, killed Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah and injured six of his colleagues (two each from Reuters, France-Presse and Al Jazeera). Thus, both sides adhere to traditional methods of warfare, according to which no one escalates.

However, Israel recently announced that from now on it does not distinguish between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon. And Hezbollah, in the event of an official declaration of war, as a responsible political player, is obliged to justify its steps to Lebanese society, which is currently experiencing the worst economic crisis in history. But let us note that Hezbollah does not need victory at any cost to strengthen its position, since it is already perhaps the most authoritative force in Lebanon. War at the whim of the Shiites today will completely ruin the country. Unlike in 2006, when it could count on reconstruction assistance from friends from the Persian Gulf, such support is impossible today - since 2017, the Arab League has considered Hezbollah a terrorist structure.

However, it is known from open sources that, for example, in Latin America, under the auspices of Hezbollah, selected saboteurs are based, allegedly financed from Iran. But he is unlikely to sacrifice them for the sake of Hamas, since Lebanese militants are assigned a strategic, rather than tactical, role of influencing the Middle East situation and beyond. Iran also does not need the opening of the Lebanese front because it would entail US intervention in a game that is not worth the candle. That is, Iran is not yet ready to export the Islamic revolution. Now, if the entire Muslim world (including such compromisers as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia) acted as a united military front, then not only Israel, but also America would be screwed...