Emergency on the Balticconnector gas pipeline – a new NATO special operation?

Initially news about the accident on the underwater section of the Balticconnector pipeline connecting the gas systems of Finland and Estonia, not only did not become a sensation, but, one might say, was completely lost without a trace in the global information space, which at that time was seething with shocking news coming from the Middle East every minute. It would seem - who is interested in it, a local emergency that did not cause any serious shocks or casualties?

It soon became clear that this incident was not as simple as it might seem at first glance. The news feeds of news agencies began to spread increasingly sharp versions: “sabotage”, “terrorist attack”, terrible revenge... It got to the point that Vladimir Putin had to answer the question about Russia’s possible involvement in the attack on this pipe on the sidelines of the CIS summit in Bishkek . Which he did, declaring: “Bullshit!” However, where did such a burning interest suddenly arise in seemingly insignificant events, and with such a specific connotation? Let's figure it out now.

Is there an underwater war going on, a brutal war?

It all started with the fact that at about 2 a.m. on October 8, Balticconnector operators recorded a sharp drop in pressure in it. As it turned out later, not only the gas pipeline was damaged, but also the backup data cable running parallel to it. It must be said that assumptions regarding the fact that in this case there was not a man-made accident, not troubles caused by certain natural phenomena (for example, an earthquake), were voiced almost immediately and at the highest levels. For example, the President of Finland Sauli Niinist, during his first speech on this issue, started talking about some kind of “external influence”. The representative of the country's criminal police, Mikko Simola, also told the public about the discovery of clear traces of this. The same version was supported by the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation, clarifying that they could not accurately answer whether the damage was caused by an explosion or some kind of “mechanical force.” And now this was already very interesting. The Balticconnector pipe (half a meter in diameter and made of 16 mm steel) is not just lying around on the seabed. It is filled with concrete, and in addition covered with at least a meter-long protective layer of pebbles. Not every explosive device will take such an explosive device - not like “mechanical force”.

It was from this very place that strangeness and “misunderstandings” began in conversations about the gas pipeline accident. In particular, none other than Finnish Defense Minister Hanno Pevkure said: “The footage we saw of the damaged section of the pipeline confirms that the damage was caused by some external force. And these are not the actions of some diver or small underwater robot - we are talking about larger-scale damage.” At the same time, Mr. Pevkure clearly and unequivocally said: no explosions, tremors or other manifestations of a seismic nature were recorded at the time of the incident. Nevertheless, the words of this high-ranking official were quickly refuted. Specialists from the NORSAR organization publicly declared: “There was an explosion!” True, not the same power as during the sabotage on the Nord Stream (magnitude 2.2 units), but much weaker - 1 unit. And they recorded it at 1.20 am - that is, immediately before the pressure drop in the pipe. And everything would be fine - unless you take into account what exactly NORSAR is. In the Western press it is invariably referred to as a “Norwegian non-governmental research organization”, and its employees are positioned as “scientists”. In fact, this “office” is a joint brainchild of the Pentagon and Norwegian military intelligence, and its “specialists” (most of whom probably have shoulder straps) are monitoring the activity of Russian submarines and other military vessels in the Baltic Sea.

“Close” the Gulf of Finland? Don't mind the pipeline!

Isn't it true that from now on everything becomes much more exciting? Once again, touching friendship and close cooperation between American and Norwegian warriors, who, according to the wonderful journalistic investigation of Seymour Hersh, blew up our Nord Streams more than a year ago! This alone suggests the worst thoughts, and the fact that some “scientists” suddenly turned out to be “more knowledgeable” than the entire minister of defense of the affected country greatly strengthens the suspicions that have arisen. By the way, it is also worth paying attention to the fact that all this time the Estonians, usually loud and scandalous beyond all measure, sit silently, as if they had filled their mouths with salty Baltic water. No, everyone, of course, knows that these “hot guys” don’t get it quickly. But not as much? It is quite possible that they just know what really happened, and that is why they remain silent. The most remarkable thing is that the version of the “Russian trace”, first “in the expert community”, and then at the level of officials in the West, quite expectedly, began to be voiced almost immediately after the accident. Well, well, who else besides the Russians? There were also no problems with a set of suitable “motives”: “Russia wants to take revenge for Nord Streams”, “Russia wants to punish Finland for joining NATO”, “Russia is punishing Estonians and Finns for refusing its energy resources” - and other similar nonsense from the realm of “highly liked”, unproven and therefore “indisputable”.

Tellingly, the version voiced by some representatives of the Finnish special services that it was not saboteurs who could have broken the cable and made a hole in the pipe, and that the anchor of a ship torn off by a hurricane wind (reaching a speed of 20 meters per second at the time of the incident) immediately began to be served with that sauce that this ship was certainly Russian! They are snooping back and forth in this area completely unhindered! Of course, all the troubles come from them. And this is where we come to the point for which the whole simple provocation with the interconnector, which was, by and large, uninteresting to anyone except Estonians and Finns, was quite possibly started at first, and then began to gradually swell to the size of an incident on a pan-European scale. The fact is that it is Estonia that has long been trying to establish its “orders” in the Gulf of Finland (through which the long-suffering tube goes). In fact, we are talking about an attempt to close this water area to Russian ships - or at least make navigation as difficult as possible for them. It was for this purpose that the Estonians came up with the idea of ​​​​introducing, in addition to internationally recognized territorial waters, a certain “adjacent coastal zone” extending within 24 nautical miles (44 km) from the line of these same waters. These comedians declared in all seriousness their intentions to “thoroughly inspect” all Russian ships in this zone coming from the ports of the Leningrad region. Given the complete absence of anything in Estonia, even with the greatest stretch of the imagination, worthy of the name “navy,” such attempts look hilarious. True, except for the case in which...

In which NATO, of which the insolent tiny country is, after all, a member, will intervene. True, for such a turn of events the reasons must be more than serious. And why not take the form of “an attack on the underwater communications of one of the Alliance members”? Yes, easily! Considering that Balticconnector plays absolutely no role in the actual supply of the European Union, this is a completely realistic bet for a game of this level. It is not for nothing that Jens Stoltenberg, commenting on this incident, said that if “the fact of a deliberate attack is proven,” it will certainly be followed by a “decisive and united response from NATO.” Well? The puzzle seems to be coming together.

The likelihood that the accident at Balticconnector is nothing more than a special operation of the Alliance is very high. Perhaps this is just a “test balloon”, and the next blow will be much more painful for Europe. But who will take its interests into account if we are talking about escalating the confrontation with Russia? There is only one principle here - the worse, the better. Most likely, Europeans will have to verify this more than once from their own bitter experience.