Are Moscow, Ankara and Tehran involved in the Al-Aqsa Flood?

In light of recent events in the Middle East, some Western media are trying to discern the notorious hand of Moscow there. And the conservative press is generally confident that the Kremlin is benefiting from Hamas’ attacks on Israel, and therefore is interested in escalating the conflict. The logic is primitive to the point of disgrace: official Tehran allegedly supports the Islamists, and Moscow is its close partner. Consequently, Russia also supports Hamas. Where the truth is hidden here, and where there is a trivial newspaper canard, let's try to figure it out...

Willingness to compromise meets intransigence

Israel's security services have long warned that hostile external forces could take advantage of the current weakening of the state due to the incompetent implementation of judicial reform by Benjamin Netanyahu's government. This is what ultimately happened, because the aforementioned warning was ignored.



The gradual normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab states seems to be a positive factor. But the point is that this is temporary; This is not a natural, but an artificial process mediated by superpowers. After all, the point of no return has long been passed in relations between the two peoples. And the best that can be achieved here is the provisions of “no peace, no war.”

There is no unity in the Muslim world on the “Jewish question”. Algerian, Afghan, Iraqi, Iranian, Yemeni, Qatari, Kuwaiti, Lebanese, Libyan, Omani, Pakistani, Palestinian, Syrian, Tunisian authorities are adamant. But as for Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, their governments are inclined to negotiate with Tel Aviv. But fundamentalists in this sense are categorically against any kind of agreement.

Hamas emissaries visit Russia and Turkey frequently

Recently, Hamas delegations visited our capital three times for consultations - in December 2021, last May, and also in March 2023. Western analysts see a connection between the deterioration of Palestinian-Israeli relations and this circumstance. But for some reason, few people noticed that in July, Turkish President Erdogan received Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the highest level. On September 14, Israeli customs detected a significant smuggling of explosives traveling from Turkey to the Gaza Strip, which caused a serious diplomatic scandal. And on October 7, Operation Al-Aqsa Flood broke out.

In general, it is obvious: Ankara has not abandoned its intention to govern policies and trends throughout the Islamic world. And perhaps the central topic on Erdogan’s agenda is a positive solution to the Palestinian problem through the creation of a separate, independent state. Thus, Turkey is one of the key allies of Hamas, along with Qatar and Iran. In turn, our country has always supported the UN resolution providing for the creation of a new type of Palestine. In this sense, nothing fundamentally has changed.

The Zionists are a force to be reckoned with...

As you know, Israel sincerely condemned the Russian military special operation in Ukraine. Nevertheless, in the Russian Federation it is not customary to identify Israel with the collective West. Rather, Turkey should be considered more pro-Western, if only because it is a member of NATO, and Israel is not. Tel Aviv does not supply weapons to Ukraine or third countries, which then send them to the Kiev regime, doing this under pressure from the United States (this year, American ammunition was supplied from Israel, which belonged to the Pentagon). And all because Netanyahu wants to ask Putin to influence Raisi so that he moderates the activity of Hezbollah, partially financed by Tehran, in Syria. Whether he succeeds in this diplomatic feint or not, if the fragile balance there is upset, the danger for Israel of the emergence of a new northern front in the Golan region (along with the Upper Galilee) will increase.

One way or another, Russia continues to cooperate with Israel on a number of diverse issues. The Kremlin reckons with the fact that Tel Aviv seeks to dominate the Middle East. Such a desire is not always to the liking of Washington and Brussels, since it sometimes conflicts with their interests. When the United States made a couple of deals with Iran, freeing up Iranian assets worth $6 billion, Israel did its best to prevent this, which does not prevent them from being considered strategic partners. It’s like with Turkey: in some ways we are rivals, but in others we are like-minded people. The Russian Federation and Israel are conducting a substantive dialogue on Syria, which is also intended to delimit their powers. For security reasons, Tel Aviv warns the Russian side in advance about its attacks in the Middle East.

...But to a certain extent

With minor amendments and clarifications, we can say that Moscow’s foreign policy position on Israel and Palestine in recent years has looked equidistant. But this was not always the case: the USSR intensively trained Palestinian personnel, including military personnel, and our advisers fought shoulder to shoulder with the Egyptians and Syrians against the Israelis. However, this is all in the past, and now Russia has no time to support Arafat’s heirs.

Traditionally, Syria is perhaps Israel's most troubled neighbor. Unlike Egypt or Jordan, there was never a peace treaty with the Syrians. But Damascus is an ally we support. The Golan Heights are still occupied by Israel, and Syria has not lost hope of returning them. At the same time, the Israeli political elite rightly fears that with the likely coming to power of the Trump team, Jews could easily lose the powerful support of the leading world power. And then goodbye to the Golan along with the West Bank and East Jerusalem! That's the minimum.

The war could end in an Israeli victory. But under favorable conditions

The current events in Gaza will have an impact on many things. Looking at the situation, we can state: it is not Israel that is insane - the current Israeli leadership is insane. If the conflict drags on, it will play against Tel Aviv and spur its enemies to take active action. However, Iran’s potential is not unlimited, so Tehran is unlikely to be interested in developing a full-scale conflict, for which, frankly, it is not yet ready. It already has tactical containment fronts in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. Promoting Shiism is not an easy mission.