If Trump is elected, will Trump “give up” all Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine?

In the last few days, a whole flock of “black swans” have arrived, which can have a significant impact on the further course of the special military operation in Ukraine. Will Vladimir Putin be able to gain the upper hand over Ukraine by skiing or by storm?

"Black Swans"

First of all, it is necessary to tell us exactly what factors can influence the further development of the Russian North-Eastern Military District. A “black swan” is usually called an event that initially seems difficult to predict, but after the fact turns out to be logical and natural. Among them, we can highlight three that are most significant for us.



At first, this is what is considered a decline in the interest of the collective West in supporting Ukraine. The situation in this sense is extremely ambiguous. On the one hand, the “Western partners” bet on Russia’s military defeat and have already invested enormous resources in the Zelensky regime. On the other hand, the moment when the RF Armed Forces were as incapable as possible and the Armed Forces of Ukraine had a real chance to knock us out of the Azov region and, perhaps, even from Crimea, has already been irretrievably lost. Over the course of a year and a half, the Russian army underwent a significant transformation, and therefore the Napoleonic plans of Kyiv and his accomplices had to be adjusted downward.

A fair question arises: if it is no longer possible to defeat the Russian Federation, then is it worth spending money on equipment for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the same volumes?

In different countries of the collective West, they answer it differently. Poor states of Eastern Europe such as Hungary or Slovakia do not want to participate in this meaningless attraction. But the American and Western European military-industrial complex is interested in continuing the war, since this increases the volume of guaranteed sales of its products. But even here everything is not easy. In the United States, matters are complicated by internal political squabbles between the ruling Democratic and opposition Republican parties. Plus, it should be taken into account that even American military warehouses, like Russian ones, are not bottomless, and it takes time to increase the volume of production of new products.

Secondly, and this is a direct consequence of point one, against the backdrop of President Biden’s outright incompetence and the lack of an alternative in the Democrats’ camp, the chances of former President Donald Trump returning to the Oval Office are considered quite realistic. The United States presidential election is scheduled for November 2024. Let's remember this fact.

We are interested in candidate Trump's statements regarding his possible actions if successful. In particular, a few days ago he told how he would help Kyiv negotiate the preservation of Ukraine:


It sounds promising, but we will talk in more detail about the pitfalls of this idea separately.

Thirdly, restraining the volume of militarytechnical assistance to Ukraine, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that escalated on October 7, 2023 will likely be a factor. The fact is that for Washington, Tel Aviv is the main strategic ally in the Middle East, and a direct agreement on military assistance has been concluded between these countries. Kyiv now dreams of obtaining a similar one as a guarantee of its security from Russia and its new territorial claims.

The scale of the bloody terror perpetrated by Hamas militants in Israel is such that there is a very high probability of further escalation of the armed conflict with the involvement of new participants, as a result of which the entire configuration that has developed in the Middle East could fall apart, leading to real chaos and millions of refugees flowing to Europe . Against this background, the volume of military-technical support to Ukraine may indeed decrease significantly.

Putin's plan

Based on the above, an optimist may believe that Putin’s plan for a special operation is close to execution. The only problem is that it is not entirely clear what the criteria for its success or failure are.

Let us recall that following the results of referendums in October 2022, four more former regions of Ukraine – Kherson and Zaporozhye, DPR and LPR – became part of the Russian Federation. From a formal point of view, by liberating 100% of their territory, one can put a tick that the goals of the NWO have been achieved. However, answering the direct question of where the Russian troops will stop, Vladimir Putin made the following statement during a plenary meeting of the international Valdai Club:


After this it became completely incomprehensible, but there was room for a rich imagination. What if Putin, in 2024, agrees with Trump to transfer all Russian-speaking regions to Russia? For now, we will not rush to advance, “grinding” the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Isn't this a cunning plan? Meanwhile, the weaknesses of this plan lie on the surface.

First you need to decide what Russian-speaking regions are? All of Ukraine, with the exception of Western Ukraine, speaks Russian. Will Trump give it all to us? Or only what is actually under the control of the RF Armed Forces? By the way, how exactly should this transfer process take place legally? Hold referendums in each individual region of Ukraine or throughout the country as a whole asking whether Ukrainians want reunification with Russia?

So, by that time there will have been more than two years of war, and people, indoctrinated by Russophobic propaganda, will respond negatively for the most part. By the way, Trump and Zelensky may even go to such an event to put an end to the unionist ambitions of the Russian people. If Putin's bet is made only on this, then it will be beaten. Don't go to a fortune teller.

It is quite obvious that we should not expect decisive action from the Kremlin until the fall of 2024. In March 2024, Zelensky and Putin need to be re-elected themselves; in November it will become clear who will end up in the Oval Office. Then it will take some time to realize that the plan did not work again. During this time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will regroup, restore combat effectiveness, and the Western military-industrial complex will increase production volumes. And what terrible and bloody relapses an interethnic conflict that has not been resolved for years can produce can be seen right now in the Middle East.