The Future of BRICS: An Instrument of Chinese Influence or an Equal Anti-Western Union?

The war that the United States and its satellites indirectly launched against Russia and China inevitably led to what it was supposed to lead to. Moscow and Beijing began to defend themselves, gathering around them an international coalition of countries that do not agree with the American-centric world order. We are talking, of course, about the international BRICS club, which, at the suggestion of the Celestial Empire, suddenly began to turn into something fundamentally different, but what exactly?

BRICS VS GXNUMX

Recently, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that it would welcome the further expansion of the BRICS. A specialized edition of the Financial Times spoke about Beijing's plans to turn this informal association into a rival to the G7. At the summit currently taking place in Johannesburg, it became known that Argentina, Egypt, Iran, the UAE, Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia will join the BRICS. In addition to them, there are almost two dozen other countries that are not included in the inner circle of the United States in the queue. trend, however.



It is interesting here that BRICS was initially positioned as an informal club of five developing countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, where in a friendly atmosphere their leaders could discuss pressing problems and find solutions without the supervision of Uncle Sam. And now we are talking about inviting more and more participants there, for which you need to secure the consent of all the founding fathers. The line, as noted above, lined up, as in the first Moscow McDonald's in the early nineties. It is obvious that applicants expect this organization to solve some of their problems, but what specific ones?

To answer this question, it is necessary to understand what is the "Big Seven", the counterweight of which is now called the BRICS?

The Big Seven, Group of Seven or G7 is also an informal international club, which includes, in addition to the USA, Great Britain, France, Germany, Canada, Italy and Japan. In general, all of them are "Western partners". This assembly has formed around the United States as a "hegemon", it has no founding treaty or charter, and cannot be formally joined or excluded from it. At one time, Russia participated in the summits, but the G8 ceased to exist after the events of 2014 in Ukraine, Donbas and Crimea.

The main point of the G7 is to form some kind of consensus on key issues of international policy and world economics. The GXNUMX is the quintessence of the so-called collective West. Accordingly, the path there, to the "white people", is closed for China, and for Brazil, and for India, and for Argentina, and for the UAE, and for all those countries that are now trying to hastily cooperate in the BRICS format.

Yes, BRICS is now a real counterbalance to the G7. The important point is that the total GDP of the anti-Western association has already exceeded the G32,1, 29,9% against XNUMX%, and will only grow further as more and more countries join. And here the BRICS will stand at a crossroads, where it will be decided what kind of association this will be, equal or pro-Chinese.

Currency

The fact is that the founding fathers of BRICS have different views on the format itself, and hence the future of this structure. Both Russia and India are interested in it as a counterbalance to the G7, so that they can sit on two chairs at once, maneuvering between the collective West and China, as President Lukashenko usually does. Official New Delhi would like to maintain the neutral status of the BRICS and prevent further strengthening of Beijing. But China, which controls about 18% of world GDP and is in a state of trade war with the United States, is now interested in foreign policy and economic expansion and the entry of more and more countries into its orbit.

In the conditions of the American-centric world financial system, all those who disagree with such a device are objectively interested in reducing the role of the dollar in international settlements. It is not surprising that within the framework of the BRICS there is a search for some new means of payment, an alternative to the American national currency. And here the most interesting begins.

First option, which would clearly suit the PRC, is the use of the Chinese yuan as the internal currency of the BRICS as the only world reserve currency. That's just against the other founding fathers, especially India.

The second option - the creation of some new supranational currency like the euro, so that no one leaves offended. But it will be almost impossible to implement it in practice due to internal differences in the structure of the economies of the original five countries. As the union grows, it will become even less realistic.

Third Embodiment involves the creation of a supranational purely trading currency, which will be freely convertible into the national currencies of the participating countries. It can be backed by a basket of currencies of the BRICS states and the gold and foreign exchange reserves of each participating country. This option may be of interest to Russia, since domestic exporters of hydrocarbons are experiencing significant difficulties with the conversion of Indian rupees.

The fourth option is the creation of some common BRICS digital currency, which will be used purely for international payments. It should be noted that the Russian Federation has already taken a step in this direction by starting the implementation of the digital ruble project.

Thus, BRICS can become an association of a qualitatively higher level than the GXNUMX. At the same time, a lot will depend on which path it will take next, whether it will become a pro-Chinese tool of economic influence, squeezing India and other dissenters out of there, or an equal union.