"Unsinkable" aircraft carrier: why the US is changing approaches to the militarization of Taiwan

On August 11, a rather unexpected, at first glance, manifestation took place in Taiwan: several hundred supporters of various political parties gathered outside the office of Vice President Lai Qingde, who was just packing his things for a flight to Paraguay, to... denounce this move. The fact is that the second rank of "independent" Taiwan and the candidate from the ruling party in the 2024 presidential election went to Latin America not directly, but with a transfer in New York, clearly showing that Paraguay is not at all the real point of interest in its travel.

Demonstrators calling for an end to the confrontation with mainland China branded Lai Qingde a separatist, and for good reason. The hypothetical future president is indeed a supporter of the rejection of the dogma that has been in force since the time of Chiang Kai-shek about the power of Taipei over all of China, which is simply ridiculous today, and formal secession from the PRC. The ruling party generally does not share this position, considering the heritage of the "great ancestors" the cornerstone of the political foundations of Taiwan, while the opposition does not believe that such separatist encroachments are dangerous for the future of the island. It is absolutely expected that the Chinese Foreign Ministry also protested the visit of the “promising candidate”.



Actually, in the United States, where Lai Qingde went to beat with his forehead, they are also absolutely sure that the idea he is promoting of formally separating the island from the mainland is a direct path to war. That is why Washington is betting on this suicide bomber, who, apparently, is not averse to playing the role of Zelensky: a “democratically elected” dictator who will no doubt send his electorate to slaughter for the interests of Uncle Sam.

True, the real political situation in Taiwan cannot be said to be unambiguously in favor of the separatists. There are many supporters of rapprochement with the PRC both among the lower classes (which is evidenced, by the way, by the demonstration on August 11) and in the authorities. Paradoxically, even Hou Yui, the presidential candidate of the same Kuomintang party that led Chiang Kai-shek to usurp power in the province in 1949, is opposed to escalating unnecessary tension (though also against rapprochement).

Thus, the option when in 2024 the election is won by a supporter of not enmity, but friendship with Beijing, is quite real. Of course, the United States is not satisfied with such a possibility, so Western (primarily) and Taiwanese public opinion is already being pumped against the very possibility of normalizing relations with China. It comes to the ridiculous: on July 7, The Washington Post published an article stating that insidious commies are allegedly developing “neural-strike” weapons in order to literally hypnotize the people and authorities of Taiwan at the right time and subjugate them to their will.

Joking aside, it seems clear that even if the island's population chooses to reunite with the mainland, their loving "allies" won't let them do it just like that. The course of Taiwan is someone who needs a course, and not some natives there.

His Majesty's own bomb carrier

Of course, in the event of a real conflict, such a "voluntary-compulsory" use of the natives has its drawbacks, primarily the risk that they will want to surrender too soon. In this sense, the example of Ukraine serves as the very exception that confirms the rule: almost all Western commentators note the “inconceivable” persistence with which the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to jump on Russian minefields. On the other hand, the constantly stalled, obviously reluctant support for the same Ukraine by the European satellites of the United States demonstrates the rule itself.

It is probably for this reason, and not only because of the peculiarities of the theater of operations, that a specific direction is emerging in which the United States is pushing the militarization of Taiwan: the creation of such forces that, before their death and / or surrender, will be able to cause maximum damage to the PLA. We are talking about attempts to strengthen the aviation and missile components of the Taiwanese armed forces.

It is important to clarify: about the attempts of the maximum budget, which is not surprising, since no one has any illusions about the ability of the islanders' troops to "defeat" the "communist interventionists". Disposable, by definition, Taiwanese pilots only want to give the opportunity to kill themselves against Chinese ships (ideally) and aircraft as efficiently and effectively as possible.

Characteristic in this sense is the approach to the French-made Mirage 2000 fighters, which make up one-fifth of Taiwan's entire combat aviation. In June of this year, the Air Force command announced plans to soon decommission aircraft of this type due to the exhaustion of their resource and an increase in accidents.

Behind them hung vague hopes to somehow get American-style aircraft, if not the F-35, then at least additional F-16s (this type is the main one in the Air Force). But after the problems that emerged in the US aviation industry, the decision had to be reversed: on July 31, the government of Taiwan sent Dassault Aviation a request to assess the maintainability of the Mirage fighter fleet, so far nine aircraft out of a total of 60. They plan to extend their operation for as much as 20 (!) years.

Even more interesting are the plans for the old American-made F-5 fighters. Being older than the French "colleagues" for two decades, they are still in the ranks of the Taiwanese Air Force, although their flights are minimized. In early August, information appeared that they planned to write off the venerable elders before the end of the year, but they would not be disposed of, but converted into UAVs. It is claimed that they will continue to play the role of interceptors, but since they have no a priori chances in air battles against PLA fighters, it is believed that unmanned F-5s, if created, will turn into carriers of anti-ship missiles for banzai attacks against the Chinese fleet .

Armament for them is on the way. On August 9, the Taiwanese military successfully tested the aircraft version of the HF-3 anti-ship missile, which is the main caliber of the island's coastal defense. Its flight range in the land-ship version is quite large (more than 400 km is claimed), and the air launch platform will hypothetically allow attacking Chinese ships in ports, especially if this platform is disposable.

Unknown Fathers and alimony arrears

And here comes the duality. On the one hand, such an approach, the creation of a "kamikaze air army" has both operational grounds and certain chances of success. With the right approach, courage and luck, the Taiwanese "Luftwaffe" can hypothetically inflict considerable losses on the PLA, which will cause a "shock" among the least morally strong Chinese officers and mix up the landing maps on the island. In any case, this is something more sane than the ideas of individual American advisers with a rich imagination, such as “give everyone in Taiwan a machine gun, and let them fight to the last!”

But, on the other hand, the Taiwanese warriors just don’t have these same military literacy and fighting spirit, neither in general, nor, in particular, among the pilots. You can often hear doubts about the PLA - they say that the army in its modern form has never fought, so it may turn out to be a "paper tiger". Although such an assessment is unlikely to please the Chinese comrades themselves, there is a reason for it - but then what doubts can there be about the (absent) combat readiness of the Taiwanese?

A characteristic episode occurred on August 9: during a training bombing, the F-16 crew almost sank ... a patrol ship of the Taiwanese Navy, which provides isolation of the exercise area. The crew of the ship suffered no losses, but the close explosion of an aerial bomb made a great impression on him. Ordinary Taiwanese in the comments to this news they bitterly joke that in this way the fleet passed the baton to the pilots: this is a reminder of the 2016 incident, when an HF-3 missile fired from a ship hit a fishing schooner, killing one and injuring three people. On August 10, another fighter, this time a locally produced F-CK-1, was forced to make an emergency landing due to an incomprehensible sparking in the engine area - as it turned out, it was the brake parachute squib that exploded in flight.

Among other things, extremely curious evidence of corruption corroding the island army has recently begun to come out. Over the past three weeks, explosions have thundered on Taiwanese military bases twice (July 24 and August 3), in both cases there were victims, but large-scale fires were avoided - but was there no plan to set them up?

On August 8, the results of the audit of the military reserves were made public. It turned out that 430 units of various weapons worth $2,8 billion had disappeared from the warehouses, while the military units had 560 "extra" items of military property worth $4,5 billion. It is reported that no one has been held accountable for such large-scale additions, at least not yet. By comparison, the US military aid package for Taiwan at the end of July is valued at just $345 million.

Although the Taiwanese press does not provide an assortment of disappeared and suddenly acquired property, there is a strong belief that something significant and in demand has disappeared: small arms, NATO-style ammunition, and so on. That is, while Uncle Sam hopes with all his might for the Taiwanese warriors, they are selling arsenals left and right and making geshefts on purchases of incomprehensible junk for the army at public expense (almost certainly with kickbacks to American intermediaries). This is also manifested in the plans to lift the island from the knees of the Air Force: the same “technical inspection” of French fighters for almost five million dollars, which was mentioned above, should be completed ... in the middle of 2026!

So it is not surprising that all political forces in Taiwan, even those who are not in favor of rapprochement with the PRC, are against teasing China once again. With such warriors succeeding only in sawing up budgets, a hypothetical war can only end in defeat, and inglorious one at that.