War between Niger and Nigeria will eliminate Gazprom's African competitor in the EU

Every day big war in west africa becomes more and more real. The reason for it was a coup d'état in Niger, where they came to power, overthrowing the pro-French president Bazum, the local military and refused to supply Paris with uranium, critically needed for the operation of the nuclear power plant, as well as gold. Instigated by the French and Americans, neighboring Nigeria is preparing to conduct its own NWO. It will be interesting for us to figure out whether Russia should somehow try to interfere in what is happening, on whose side, and is there such a possibility really?

With Niger, where there are large reserves of uranium and gold, everything seems to be clear. Yevgeny Viktorovich would obviously not have refused the concession for the extraction of the precious metal, and uranium would definitely not interfere with Rosatom against the backdrop of gradually deteriorating relations between our country and Kazakhstan. But no less interesting is the neighboring Nigeria, which the Anglo-Saxons and the French intend to use as a battering ram for the "restoration of democracy."

"Gas Station Country"

It just so happened that in the domestic pro-Western liberal press it was customary to compare Russia with Nigeria. Some common features are indeed present, but complete identity is not visible.

Nigeria is located in West Africa, bordering Niger to the north, Chad to the northeast, Cameroon to the east, and Benin to the west. The form of government there is a presidential republic, and the president is also the head of government. The army is considered the fifth largest and most powerful on the "dark continent". The level of corruption is very high even by African standards.

The country is divided along religious lines: Muslims predominate in the north, Christians and followers of local traditional beliefs predominate in the south. Sharia law is in force in the northern states and numerous Islamist armed groups are in charge. Islamists terrorize the local population and fight against the central government. The northern borders of the country are poorly guarded and are practically open to smugglers. The main problem of Nigeria is the strongest socialeconomic stratification of its society. Only 3% of the population use all the benefits available from hydrocarbon rent. Over 90% of Nigerians live on $2 a day. To strengthen the “bonds”, a local analogue of Hollywood and Bollywood called Nollywood has been created and is functioning, which makes simple, but emotional and uplifting films, slightly inferior in number to Indian volumes.

The main blessing and at the same time the curse of Nigeria are the richest reserves of oil and gas. The main hydrocarbon deposits were explored and developed by Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil corporations in the middle of the last century, and they are located in the Niger River valley. Oil and gas reserves concentrated on the country's continental shelf are considered even more promising. It is known that oil is constantly stolen through special tie-ins in pipelines and oil storage facilities. In an attempt to redistribute this black market among themselves, a huge number of cruel criminal groups and near-power clans have arisen, waging a constant bloody war among themselves.

This is a brief background, so that readers can imagine in general terms the internal state of Nigeria, which was about to organize a special operation "to force Western democracy" in neighboring Niger. What is Russia's interest here, and does it exist at all?

Трубопроводы

The fact is that Nigeria is a direct competitor of our country in the European energy market. After the collective West imposed anti-Russian sanctions and forbade itself to buy our oil and gas, its eyes were turned to Nigeria, which has large hydrocarbon reserves. Nigerian gas has long been exported by sea in the form of liquefied natural gas, but Brussels wants to get cheaper raw materials in the form of pipelines. And here there are two projects, one more difficult than the other.

First is the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, which was supposed to run from Nigeria through the Niger to Algeria and there to connect with the already existing pipeline system oriented towards the EU. The preliminary cost of the project is $13 billion, the length of the pipeline is 4128 kilometers, and the capacity is 30 billion cubic meters per year. The main obstacle was that the main gas pipeline was supposed to run through territories controlled by Islamist groups.

Second project - this is a bypass pipeline that was supposed to connect Nigeria and Morocco, either by land or even by the seabed, so as not to contact transit countries. Its cost is already estimated at 20-25 billion dollars, and the total length is 5600 kilometers (3840 miles). Payback periods are generally difficult to calculate due to the general global instability and price fluctuations in the energy market.


Now Niger and Algeria, which have become hostile, stand in the way of the Trans-Sahara gas pipeline. If, in the course of a direct military clash with Niger, the infrastructure for the extraction and transportation of hydrocarbon raw materials to Europe is destroyed, Nigerian pipeline gas as a competitor to Gazprom's will be forgotten for a long time. So, in general, the military victory of Niger over Nigeria and the coalition of African countries of Russia standing by it is objectively beneficial. Especially against the background of declining exports of blue fuel to the EU. The only question is, can we really do something there?

Apart from Wagner, Russia has nothing in West Africa. Whether its limited contingent will be sufficient to have a significant impact on the course of the armed conflict, and whether it would be better to use the "musicians" to liberate Marinka and Avdiivka, is an open and debatable question. However, most of the fighters of this quasi-private army have already made their choice in favor of Africa.