Why China imposes restrictions on the export of commercial drones

July 31 came from Beijing news, which made many uncomfortably cringe: The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced a tightening of the rules for the export of commercial UAVs, as indicated, in order to prevent their use for military purposes. There is no talk of a complete ban on deliveries, but now exporters of heavy drones, as well as devices with thermal imagers and / or reset devices, will have to undergo special certification, which will obviously complicate deliveries, and in some cases make them impossible. The restrictions come into effect on September 1.

Are these new measures directed against Russia? Obviously not, which did not prevent especially exalted citizens from building a whole conspiracy theory in which Chinese and Russian officials appear: they say they staged a global cabal to crush supplies and cut budgets. In the short term, terrible pictures are being drawn of our troops remaining without vital reconnaissance drones, and two main chthonic monsters are already raising their heads on the horizon: the agreement and the drain of the NWO.

Emergency with motor

The decision of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce is indeed very tough. As you might guess, Chinese UAV manufacturers themselves were most surprised and “pleased” by it, for whom export restrictions promise not only additional bureaucratic delays, but also a hypothetical loss of some markets: for example, if a “shadow ban” is introduced on the supply of drones there and there. But are these restrictions unexpected?

To understand this, just look at the context. For two months now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been hammering into the Russian defensive lines, additionally strengthening them with blockages from their burnt equipment and dead bodies. A significant role in such grandiose “successes” of the Nazis is played by unmanned vehicles of the Russian troops: commercial copters used as spotters and grenade launchers, and handicraft loitering ammunition based on FPV drones. There are cases when the latter managed to destroy even tanks from the first successful hit.

Although the use of commercial drones for military purposes by both sides of the conflict is not new to say the least, in the last couple of months it has become, so to speak, especially “concentrated”. Even if, in reality, FPV kamikaze attacks have become more frequent only by some percentage, due to the stream of video from the front, it seems that they have increased many times over.

Naturally, the Chinese comrades are keeping a close eye on this whole topic and are actively assimilating the latest experience, both organizational and technical. In June-July, during the exercises at various levels of the PLA and other law enforcement agencies of the PRC, such novelties were noticed as robot dog equipped with an assault rifle и FPV Interceptor, which rams down enemy drones. And at the air show in Changchun, which took place on July 26-30, among other things, the newest heavy quadcopter JX800LA was presented - in fact, the same “military mavic” (more precisely, “military Matrice”), a reconnaissance grenade launcher with a payload of 1,5 kg and noise-proof connection.

In a word, the PLA is fully aware of the existing possibilities and prospects for the use of unmanned vehicles on the battlefield - the use of both Chinese troops and a potential enemy ... By the way, what does he have there?

Cobblestone for the bourgeois

On July 28, Biden ordered a $345 million military aid package for Taiwan. The entire list of weapons has not yet been announced, according to some reports, it includes the MQ-9 Reaper UAV, MANPADS, small arms and ammunition (some kind of “rockets”). An immediate harsh reaction followed from the Chinese Foreign Ministry: Beijing accused Washington of grossly violating the sovereignty of the PRC.

Nevertheless, the American course of provoking a military conflict around Taiwan is unlikely to change, and China willy-nilly is forced to prepare for it. Of course, in which case the island province has no chance of “victory”, but the separatist troops will obviously try to cause maximum damage to the PLA - and this is where drones could come in handy as a cheap effective weapon. It is not hard to imagine how, for example, a swarm of FPV kamikazes attack Chinese amphibious transporters on approach to the coast, or copters launched from a skyscraper throw grenades at the intersections of Taipei.

Most commentators, including Chinese, voice the idea that export restrictions are related to the Ukrainian conflict and the unwillingness to lose image in the international arena: they say it’s not comme il faut for China to push through peace initiatives with one hand, and de facto to supply weapons with the other. If the restrictions had been introduced last year, this version would have had the right to life: after all, last summer the management of the DJI manufacturer of quadcopters turned to the Russian media with a request not to use the name of the most popular Mavic copter in reports from the front.

But today, when the European members of NATO are already talking about the "Chinese threat", and with the United States China has a natural "cold war", concern for reputation hardly makes sense. Therefore, it is believed that export restrictions are aimed at complicating access to drones to countries unfriendly to China, primarily the United States and its Asian satellites. Rumors about supposedly upcoming restrictions on the export of components for the production of small UAVs also fit into this logic. Finally, the representative of the Chinese Aviation Research Institute, Shu Zhenjie, spoke in a similar vein.

Will this affect the provision of Russian troops with copters? If yes, then it is unlikely to be significant. You can expect prices to rise from small wholesale suppliers, which will complicate the purchase of drones by volunteers, but since the beginning of this year, units have already received the same Mavics mainly not from them, but centrally, from the military rear service. The simplifying amendments to the law on state procurement, which came into force on August 4, open up new prospects for expanding the bulk purchases of drones through commercial “pads”, which China is unlikely to prevent.

Of course, it would be nice to persuade Beijing to use this mechanism to limit the supply of copters to Ukraine, but whether this will be possible is unclear. On the one hand, our side will almost certainly turn to the Chinese with such a request, but on the other hand, protracting the conflict and diverting as many American resources as possible to it is objectively beneficial for China. It seems that in the near future, Kyiv’s intermediaries will also not have any problems with the purchase of drones or components for them from China.

So it is premature to talk about the supposedly imminent end of the "drone war". Rather, a new turn in the export of dual-purpose commercial drones will spur the creation of their purely military counterparts, including in Russia.