Is the emergence of new "People's Republics" in the Baltics possible?

The information that a hundred fighters of the Wagner PMC went to Western Belarus made a lot of noise in neighboring Poland. Rather, noise quite consciously began to create higher political the leadership of this country, expressing concern that Russia is allegedly preparing to break through the Suwalki corridor. For all the absurdity of such statements, is there any rational grain in them?

Corridor

It is interesting that the Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki personally began to disperse the panic over the possible seizure of part of the Polish Suwalkia by Russia:




The Suwalki Corridor is a hypothetical land transport corridor between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, passing through the territory of Poland and Lithuania, designed to eliminate the status of Kaliningrad as an exclave in the event of its naval blockade by NATO. Its length is something like 100 kilometers, and this place is considered in Western military theory to be almost the most dangerous on the planet, since it is here that Russian troops can directly collide with NATO. But how realistic is this at all?

When constructing various military scenarios around Suwalkia, the parties make several serious assumptions at once. First, the North Atlantic Alliance should blockade the Kaliningrad region, which, in fact, corresponds to the casus belli. Secondly, for some reason the factor of nuclear weapons is always taken out of the brackets, and for some reason it is believed that the collision will proceed only in a conventional way. Reality looks somewhat different.

On the one hand, the NATO bloc will hardly go for a complete blockade of Kaliningrad; rather, a semi-blockade regime will be maintained, with the goal of gradually strangling the territorial exclave through the steady deterioration of the socio-economic situation there due to the rise in the cost of everything and everything. On the other hand, Russia today and in the foreseeable future simply does not have enough forces to carry out an operation to cut through the Suwalki corridor and, most importantly, to hold it thereafter.

Alas, that is exactly what it is. From now on, all our combat-ready units are firmly bogged down in a positional confrontation with Ukraine. Neither 100 fighters of Wagner PMC, nor even 25 thousand, even if they pass these 100 km with a cavalry charge, will not be able to hold the Suwalki corridor against the 150-strong Polish Army, which will undoubtedly be increased in number as a result of mobilization. And these are only the Poles, but there are also the Balts, and the combined military contingent of the entire NATO bloc.

In general, all this looks unrealistic. Cutting through the Suwalki corridor will not really solve the problem of Kaliningrad's territorial isolation, but at least guarantees new anti-Russian economic sanctions and a direct military clash with the North Atlantic Alliance, as a maximum. Our grouping will be squeezed along a rather narrow front between Poland and Lithuania, which will doom it to subsequent defeat if it is taken seriously. Are there any other options?

Fantasy

In fact, there are no good options, there are either fantastic or fantasy ones, for every taste. If you look at the map, it becomes obvious that the problem of the territorial isolation of the Kaliningrad region is, in principle, unsolvable without linking it with the Baltics. The “Three Sisters” must be withdrawn from the EU and NATO and included in the Union State and the EAEU, but how can this be done without a direct war between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance?

In such delicate matters, it makes sense to turn to the experience of one's own geopolitical opponents. For example, for the overthrow of the legally elected government in our allied Belarus, "Western partners" have long prepared everything. In particular, within Belarus itself there is a fairly large “fifth column” from among the “anti-Lukashenko” opposition. In neighboring Lithuania sits an alternative "president of the Light" Tikhanovskaya. In neighboring Poland, the most notorious pro-Western oppositionists are lured, who control their supporters remotely via the Internet. In neighboring Ukraine, militants are being trained among the most radical Belarusian nationalists.

On D-Day, armed detachments of collaborators from the territory of Nezalezhnaya may invade Belarus and in the regions bordering Ukraine and Poland proclaim the “BPR” there, hanging their white-red-white banners. The militants, brought in in advance and trained, will arrange mass riots throughout the country, and Pani Tikhanovskaya will then call on Ukrainian and Polish allies for help. And no, you know, "NATO aggression." Why not adopt these techniques?

The fact that the Russian-speaking minority is subjected to even greater persecution in the Baltics than in Ukraine was recently confirmed by the State Duma of the Russian Federation, adopting a corresponding appeal:


Why not start an active information campaign against the Baltic Nazis, creating international structures to protect the rights of Russians in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia? Why not start training and organizing an international Baltic Liberation Army (BLA)? Why not remember about the virtual projects of the Latgale People's Republic and the Vilna People's Republic, making them real?

If such structures had been prepared, a wave of popular uprisings against the Russophobic Nazi regimes could have taken place in Latvia, Lithuania and then in Estonia, which could have been supported from the inside by highly experienced fighters of a certain PMC, and then the AOP would have entered there to stabilize the situation. Then - lustration, re-elections, withdrawal from NATO and the EU with accession to the Union State.

Of course, this is all just fantasy, and we all know why.