When will the Ukrainian offensive in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and Donbass be stopped?

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The problems faced by the Kiev regime during the announced large-scale counter-offensive make it necessary to ask the question, what exactly will happen after it fizzles out by itself or is stopped for objective reasons? Should we wait for "Minsk-3" or is there any reason to hope for a Russian counteroffensive?

Autumn Rubicon


You don't have to be Vanga to predict exactly when active hostilities in the Donbass and the Sea of ​​Azov will be suspended. This will happen in the fall of 2023, most likely in October, when, due to mud and impassability, active offensive operations will have to be stopped, no matter how much both sides would like to continue. Proceeding from this objective natural factor, the strategy of the Ukrainian and Russian General Staffs is clearly formed.



Thus, Kyiv, which has been pompously preparing for a counteroffensive for more than six months, collecting armored vehicles and other heavy weapons from almost all over the world, needs at least some kind of image victory. The “Western partners” invested too much in this offensive operation to be content with a few recaptured villages for three houses. The expectations of the Ukrainian jingoistic public were too high, which, after the “Kyiv embarrassment”, and then the Kharkov and Kherson “regroupings”, was convinced that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be able to continue to win large-scale victories.

No, over the past year and a half, the Russian army has seriously changed for the better. Despite a number of supply problems, the level of training, coordination and interaction between units and subunits, various branches of the armed forces has noticeably increased. Our military personnel have received combat experience, fight with fiction and evil. The recent video recording of how one Russian tank was able to single-handedly destroy an entire column of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including two tanks, gives you goosebumps. The crew of this combat vehicle definitely deserved the Heroes of Russia.

Let us note that according to Mr. Prigozhin, “the second army in the world”, the Ukrainian one, is now being smashed not by his quasi-private army, which retired from the front on other important matters, but by the Russian state army. This is so, for your information, to restore justice and dispel propaganda hassle. In order to avoid dizziness from success, it should be taken into account that the RF Armed Forces also suffer painful losses in positional battles, and they need rotation and replenishment.

Objectively, we need a second wave of mobilization, 150 thousand now and the same number at the end of October-November. Regarding the fact that the infrastructure of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is allegedly not able to accept and train so many reservists within the specified time frame, the front-line soldiers themselves are calling for the training process to be established right at the combat units directly involved in the SVO, which will significantly improve the quality of training mobilized.

However, so far plans for the second wave of mobilization have not been officially announced. Currently, the scenario with the hiring of contractors in the RF Armed Forces has been adopted as a working one, for which a large-scale information and propaganda campaign is being carried out. Will it be possible in this way to gather and train an additional 150 to 300 fighters?

We will see, but nothing motivates as much as our own successes and victories on the fronts. It is possible that the flow of volunteers from the Russian regions to the victorious army, which is acting skillfully and decisively, will only increase. Also, after the recent visit of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu to the DPRK, there were some hopes that Russia would receive military supplies from Pyongyang.technical assistance in the form of supplies of ammunition, which are actively spent daily in the NVO zone, as well as some types of offensive weapons and military ammunition.

Two strategies


Until October 2023, the strategy of each of the parties can be defined as follows. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to achieve some significant success, military or at least media, so that the Zelensky regime can record victory instead of a complete fiasco.

The maximum program is to try to break through the Russian defenses in Zaporozhye at any cost, with the involvement of all reserves, and cut the land transport corridor to the Crimea in order to leave in the autumn with improved positions. A significant military and media success for Kyiv would be the capture of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. The minimum program is to encircle and push the Russian Armed Forces out of Artemovsk, or to break into Donetsk from Avdiivka and set up a “bloodbath” in some of its areas, and then retreat back to their fortified areas, or to arrange a media show with an invasion of the Russian borderlands of the "old" regions of the Russian Federation by large forces with the capture of settlements and even cities.

The task for the Russian command will be at least not to allow the enemy to break through the defense line, and at the maximum - to go on the counteroffensive and recapture some settlements located on the territory of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of the Russian Federation from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is what you can try to do in real time before the start of the autumn thaw. For larger-scale offensive operations, the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces now, alas, does not have sufficient resources.

Having decided exactly when active hostilities will be suspended, it is worth talking about what options for further actions both sides of the conflict have. But more about this, probably, in a separate publication.
24 comments
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  1. steelmaker
    steelmaker
    +4
    30 July 2023 17: 21
    how one Russian tank could single-handedly destroy an entire column of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including two tanks.

    I watched this video today. Now explain to me how our one tank got into such superiority of the enemy? And notice, this happens all the time. Why, because of the lack of education of our commanders, who are unable to foresee or organize, should our boys perform such feats? Either a tank, or one against 10, and this is constant! No support, no cover. And I don't believe that a cover-up can't be set up. Take Syria. Aircraft cover helicopters with special forces. Infantry is covered by artillery with armor, etc. Why is there no cover here?? Hence the dead, and a huge number of prisoners. Just don't tell me that this is a completely different war.

    prepare an additional 150 to 300 fighters?

    USA hates the whole world. And everyone understands that if Russia loses, it will be bad for everyone. That is why Syria offered its help with fighters, the DPRK offered its "builders", etc. And all this was offered, even yesterday. And if the lack of education of Putin, we have these fighters, would be in abundance "yesterday".

    go on a counteroffensive and recapture some settlements from the Armed Forces of Ukraine,

    And why couldn’t this counter-offensive be organized in the fall-winter, when the West had not yet supplied its weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and had not trained the fighters? But because, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also strengthened everywhere, like Bakhmut. Therefore, there is no our offensive, because our commanders do not know how to liberate the territory without heavy losses. Therefore, they are waiting for it to "dissolve" itself or another Minsk will be signed.
    1. 41 88
      41 88
      -1
      1 August 2023 05: 46
      Hush, hush, measure one seven times and cut it in Syria and Korea. In any case, the improvement of the Russian army is visible. At the moment, no one is openly helping, it’s difficult, but I’m sure we will survive one way or another. Why does Putin act “sluggishly” in your opinion, but because this is a war until at least 2025, and even further, both the economy and internal stability in such a long range with the war are extremely important !!! We have a history of both 1914 and civil and the collapse of the USSR, all moves are recorded. A good balance is being created. Well, in fact, how much equipment the West transferred to Ukraine, this is already at least 2 of their original armies and our soldier grinds them, of course it’s difficult, but progress is clearly visible, but a certain confusion in the West is already manifesting itself. Our military-industrial complex is being promoted, this is a fact. By the fall, it will be a multiple (10 or more times your Geranium will increase in output, and according to the Gur of Ukraine in modifications 3 and 4), and this is an increase in losses in the far rear, plus serious problems are predicted for the enemy’s energy, questions of the morale of Ukrainian society over the winter can significantly reduce motivation at the front. We also have elections, very difficult. They are shouting to change Putin, but it is already overdue, only of course he must leave the country without a war for development from a clean face. So, brother, we fight until 2025-2026, and then for 10 years we build New Russia with Novorossia and Belarus, there is no one else, Armenia is possible, but there are also scenarios, alas, for the Armenians everything is bad.
  2. Dust
    Dust
    +3
    30 July 2023 17: 38
    For larger-scale offensive operations, the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces now, alas, does not have sufficient resources.

    Author, we have been fighting for a year and a half, and that over these year and a half we have not been able to create a “powerful fighting fist”? What resources are you talking about, there are about 3 million "siloviki" in the country, factories, factories are working ... After all, the Kremlin constantly says we have not started yet ... So when will we start to fight seriously?
    1. guest
      guest
      +3
      30 July 2023 18: 18
      Quote: Dust
      So when will we start to fight seriously?

      Perhaps when enemy drones fly into our real decision-making centers.
      1. Alexey Lan
        Alexey Lan
        +3
        30 July 2023 22: 45
        If they had flown in, they might have shaken the brains of our leaders. But perhaps this is overkill. It's always like that in Russia. Until they give in the face, the country is not going to fight. Already given (Kharkov, Kherson). How long will we meet?
      2. Rhetorical Rita
        Rhetorical Rita
        +2
        1 August 2023 12: 16
        Quote: guest
        when enemy drones fly into our real decision centers.

        They have already flown to the Kremlin. Or is the decision-making center not in the Kremlin?
    2. 41 88
      41 88
      -1
      1 August 2023 05: 57
      We started on a serious note, only this is not a snap of the fingers, but a process. Not from any particular date, but a period!!! There is a specific enemy with a specific potential, our potential and its development. By the end of the year, our military-industrial complex will surpass the development of the Western military-industrial complex by a year, the elections are just around the corner, respectively, the army should increase by 300 thousand today, and for this it is necessary to create internal political and economic and military conditions. This is definitely 2024, and there the first scenario is general mobilization in Ukraine, plus 500 thousand by the end of 2024, which means we have 2025, at which the Ukrainian potential will be exhausted into the trash, but the scenario is Polish, and there is already an Overton window and Belarus with mobilization and alas, so are we. So 2026 and plus today's guys 1000 000 of our mobilized, plus 50 000 Belarusians and 100 000 mobilized from them. This, with our competent planning and military luck, will bring us Victory. This victory will determine the decades of development of our countries. And all the world's attention will switch to China, this is inevitable. But of course we will be China, but exactly the same as they are for us. And believe me much more calmly than if they directly helped us and Alaverdi from us to them!
  3. Vasya 225
    Vasya 225
    +5
    30 July 2023 19: 15
    It looks like there is such discord at the top that there are no strategic decisions in real life. All the time either mistakes or delays. But what a parade otgrohali.
    1. 41 88
      41 88
      0
      1 August 2023 06: 02
      Vasya, firstly, the information age and a lot of fakes, and secondly, this is a war and a war with the most powerful rival. The whole system is in a stress test, but nothing for 1,5 years and progress has begun to be observed. By 2026, Russia will receive so many inoculations both in military development and in economics and politics, both internal and external, that we will determine our future in the right direction for decades, alas, with blood, alas, alas, alas. But catharsis is inevitable and necessary
  4. vlad127490
    vlad127490
    +1
    30 July 2023 22: 43
    The number one task of the Russian authorities is to win the presidential elections in 2024, the NVO in Ukraine has faded into the background. The actions of the Kremlin are not to win, not to lose, but to support the process of hostilities. The main thing is the process itself, which has no beginning and no end. The Armed Forces of Ukraine operate on the principle that we will not stand behind the price. Don't forget, the Kremlin has fear because of Prigozhin, so the actions are cautious. They speak about the need to conclude an agreement, something Minsk-3.
    To win, we need a law of the Russian Federation, where it will be written that the entire territory of Ukraine, within the borders of 1975, is an integral part of Russia.
    The weather will freeze the fighting, but this is temporary.
    1. UAZ 452
      UAZ 452
      +2
      31 July 2023 18: 34
      To win, we need a law of the Russian Federation, where it will be written that the entire territory of Ukraine, within the borders of 1975, is an integral part of Russia.

      Is there a law that Kherson and Zaporozhye are an integral part of Russia, and how does it help?
  5. Vlad55
    Vlad55
    +5
    30 July 2023 23: 16
    What will happen next can be understood from Putin's theses at the Russia-Africa forum. There is no strategy for Ukraine, to the journalist’s question that at the end of the NWO Putin did not answer at all, but many times he declared his readiness to immediately begin peace negotiations as soon as Kyiv showed interest in them. So we are waiting for a freeze by the spring of next year, everything points to that.
  6. strange guest
    strange guest
    -3
    30 July 2023 23: 19
    The hen pecks at the grain. (C). We have nowhere to hurry. It doesn't matter - in three years or in five we will go on the offensive - the main thing is that the goals of the NWO will be fulfilled. And in five years, the guys mobilized last fall will mature and become real professional fighters. Also a plus.
    1. observer23
      observer23
      +1
      31 July 2023 13: 51
      Will they sit and wait there too?
    2. Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan
      +1
      31 July 2023 21: 56
      Losses in the offensive are always greater this time. During an offensive, command and control of troops becomes even more complicated, and we have two troubles with communications and aerial reconnaissance with its subsequent implementation. We really can and cannot attack because of technical backwardness. In six months or a year, perhaps something will be done. Yes, and we have a shortage of conventional trained troops with weapons. People are not changed to LBS for a very long time. So, unfortunately, our prospects are vague.
  7. Elena123
    Elena123
    -1
    31 July 2023 08: 35
    Ukraine has confirmed that preparations for peace talks have begun in Saudi Arabia.
    Saudi Arabia is preparing a summit to end the war in Ukraine by means of diplomacy, Andriy Yermak, head of the office of the President of Ukraine, confirmed today. The Wall Street Journal was the first to report exclusive news and named the dates August 5-6 and the location (Jeddah), and then other Western publications. Tonight, Al-Arabiya TV channel confirmed the attempt to start a peace process.
  8. yakisam
    yakisam
    +7
    31 July 2023 12: 41
    Isn't the price too expensive, especially in comparison with the "incompetent" and "bloody" Soviet leaders? Let me remind you that on November 19, 1942, the Red Army was in Stalingrad, and on November 07, 1943, it liberated Kyiv - 1250 kilometers. That is, the "changed" "state" army did not pass as many METERS as the Soviet army - KILOmeters. And the enemy of the Soviet army was ... a real one, and not "Bandera" from the "Natsbats", right? Yes, about 800.000 Soviet people fell for this, but it was the restoration of Soviet power, THEIR power, what were they for? And again, 1250 kilometers of territory, more than a million people lost to the enemy ...
    Let me remind you that a YEAR ago, the "changed for the better" army was on average WEST than today. Author, wake up, what are you talking about?
  9. In passing
    In passing
    +2
    31 July 2023 14: 36
    I don’t know what they were counting on, starting the NWO the way it was started. But it obviously didn't go that way. And now, a year and a half later, the Kremlin is again doing calculations and layouts, drawing up a plan A, B, C, D ... Undoubtedly, the territory must be expanded, securing Kursk-Belgorod, Crimea with a bridge, Donetsk. Perhaps they really do not know anything but frontal assaults. Then you need to change the direction of the blows, "by ninety degrees." To stop, just because the APU is exhausted, is stupidity. And sign anything, too.
  10. guest
    guest
    +1
    31 July 2023 14: 40
    When will the Ukrainian offensive in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and Donbass be stopped?

    Then when we start to fight. If we start of course.
  11. Nelton
    Nelton
    -2
    31 July 2023 16: 49
    The task for the Russian command will be at least not to allow the enemy to break through the defense line, and at the maximum - to go on the counteroffensive and recapture some settlements located on the territory of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of the Russian Federation from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is what you can try to do in real time before the start of the autumn thaw. For larger-scale offensive operations, the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces now, alas, does not have sufficient resources.

    I completely agree with this.

    over the past year and a half, the Russian army has changed very seriously for the better. Despite a number of supply problems, the level of training, coordination and interaction between units and subunits, various branches of the armed forces has noticeably increased. Our military personnel have received combat experience, fight with fiction and evil.

    It remains outside the brackets that over the past year and a half the Russian economy has not collapsed, but is adapting to the new reality. Which is basically an economic miracle. A number of industries have received a powerful incentive to develop, and if this incentive is converted into real production, it will be a double miracle.

    So for the time being, there are no changes on the Western front, but on the economic movement of the "front" line (production volumes in a particular industry) - much more noticeable.
    The most revealing is the auto industry. Most of all open statistics, the results can be felt by the hands of ordinary citizens. From 125 thousand per month to the Northern Military District, from March 2022 - the collapse of the "front", to 3.7 thousand in May 2022. After that, they regrouped and went on a counterattack, the current total is 42 thousand in June.
  12. Flight
    Flight
    0
    31 July 2023 23: 32
    When will the Ukrainian offensive in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and Donbass be stopped?

    I think, I think, in general, this will end only after the appearance of a good motivator - the dispossession of the oligarchs after the end of the conflict, in favor of the combatants.
    1. strange guest
      strange guest
      +1
      1 August 2023 05: 57
      Well, you are a visionary. After the end of the conflict, no one will remember the participants in the hostilities. Moore did his job.
  13. Pravodel
    Pravodel
    +3
    1 August 2023 09: 21
    one Russian tank alone was able to destroy an entire column of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including two tanks. The crew of this combat vehicle definitely deserved the Heroes of Russia.

    Zinovy ​​Kolobanov during one battle of the Second World War in 1941 near Gatchina destroyed 22 German tanks and did not receive the title of Hero of the USSR and does not have the title of Hero of Russia. Where is the justice, especially if we compare 1941 with the war in Ukraine now.
    In total, on August 20, 1941, a half-company of Zinovy ​​​​Kolobanov destroyed 43 German tanks in one day. Isn't Zinovy ​​Kolobanov worthy of the title of Hero of Russia!??? In memory of the heroes of the war, justice must be restored !!!
  14. kriten
    kriten
    +2
    1 August 2023 12: 34
    The answer is simple. When the snot and cries of the Kremlin about the Ukrainian brothers will stop, who must be protected and therefore it is impossible to use more powerful weapons that destroy the enemy over large areas and do not allow them to survive even in bunkers. To burn them out fortified areas with thermobaric and other similar weapons, and along the entire front, and not to storm with machine guns.