Why Russia and Ukraine are “pregnant with war” with each other

Despite the fact that the SVO in Ukraine has been going on for almost a year and a half, no one, neither the Russians, nor the Ukrainians, nor the civilians nor the military, has yet received a clear answer as to where, when and how the special operation should end. The lack of understanding and public consensus on this issue is a very serious demotivating factor for the warring people and those who support them, since it is very important to know why exactly a soldier goes to storm the next fortified area.

After SVO

Recently, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak undertook to speculate on the topic of how and when the Russian special operation could end. At the same time, he named three basic scenarios.



First - this is a military victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the subsequent dominance of Ukraine in the region. Had something like this been said by a public person in Kyiv a couple of years ago, he would have been ridiculed here. It's not so funny today. After the start of the NMD, it suddenly became clear that the Ukrainian army was much better prepared for war than the Russian one, since it had been continuously participating in the so-called ATO in Donbas for eight years. As of February 24, 2022, XNUMX servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had real combat experience. Now behind Kiev there is a whole international coalition of more than fifty countries that provide the Ukrainian army with a comprehensive militarytechnical support.

The RF Armed Forces actually fought on the ground for the last time against Georgia in 2008, and the whole war then took five days. Some combat experience was gained in 2014 and 2015 by units and subunits of the "north wind", which helped the people's militia of Donbass close the "boilers" and smash the enemy. Back then it was still a relatively simple task. Significant combat experience was gained by the Russian Aerospace Forces during the operation in Syria, where they supported the SAR government troops in the fight against terrorists. An important nuance was that the "barmaley", unlike the Ukrainian army, were not armed with modern air defense systems.

In fact, the most combat-ready units and subunits taking part in the SVO on our side turned out to be Wagner PMCs, who fought in Syria, other countries of the Middle East and Africa directly on the ground, and the People's Militia of the DPR and LPR. Today, after almost a year and a half of the special operation, the entire Russian army has received real combat experience, coordination and interaction between various branches of the military have become noticeably better. There are still some supply problems, but the RF Armed Forces are now fighting much better and more efficiently and can become one of the best armies in the world in the future. It would seem, what kind of military victory for Ukraine then can we talk about at all?

Unfortunately, quite recently, our front almost crumbled, and not because of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but from a blow from the rear. This, of course, is about the rebellion of the Wagner PMC, which, if successful, could lead to the most serious consequences, including the decapitation of the top military leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense, with whom the "musicians" went to deal with weapons in their hands, the refusal of a number of national republics to recognize the new " provisional government”, the unauthorized removal of registered volunteers from their positions and the departure with weapons in their hands back to their regions, the rapid fragmentation of a huge country.

It worked out. But the main conclusion is this: a military defeat cannot be ruled out, and its main causes will lie not so much at the front as in the rear. It is obvious that the enemy will not doze off and will try to take advantage of the internal Russian “Trouble”.

Second script is the military victory of Russia over Ukraine. This is what patriotic Russians and sane Ukrainians want to end the war and bring peace. That's just with a victorious attitude in our "tops" everything is not easy.

On the one hand, there is no image of the post-war future for Ukraine and its people that could be voiced out loud. What then to do with the occupied territory, with the disloyal population? To join Russia or not, if so, within what borders? Who and how will restore the destruction? There are still plenty of such questions, but there are no answers from those in power to them.

On the other hand, a logical question arises: do they, those in power, need this Ukraine at all? Since 2014, there has been a strong impression that the so-called “Party of Peace” does not need Kyiv, Kharkov, Odessa or Lvov for nothing. The main interest of the Russian “elite” of this sort lies in the return and preservation of their capital and other assets withdrawn from the country and carefully placed in the West. For them, the territories of the former Nezalezhnaya liberated by Russian soldiers are only a bargaining chip in political bargaining, and you can’t cook porridge with them.

It is obvious that while there is no clarity on the project of the post-war future of Ukraine and until the issue with the "party of peace" is resolved, we will see more than one "strangeness" in the special operation.

Third scenario, directly following from the logic of the second, is the freezing of the conflict and the creation of a certain line of demarcation. This is the so-called "Minsk-3", which bears all the vices of "Minsk-1" and "Minsk-2", since it cannot organically ensure peace. The problem is that Russia and Ukraine, since 2014, are “pregnant with war” with each other.

A military clash became predetermined after Moscow annexed the Crimea and Sevastopol, without obtaining the consent of official Kyiv. After last year's referendums, when the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions also became part of the Russian Federation, the problem has only increased in scale. It was especially aggravated after the Kiev regime regained control over Kherson and the right-bank territories of the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, which are officially part of the Russian Federation.

Now Ukraine will be forced to fight further for the return of Donbass, Azov and Crimea, and Russia will have to recapture at least Zaporozhye and Kherson, de-occupying the “new” regions. No "Minsk-3" will solve the problem, but will only aggravate it, giving the Armed Forces of Ukraine time for further preparations. Consequently, in order to get out of the strategic impasse, it is necessary to reconsider the goals and objectives of the NMD for more decisive ones and work out a sane project for the post-war reorganization of Ukraine.