Privatization 2.0 or why should the Ministry of Finance transfer state property into private hands
For several months now, disputes have not subsided in Russia: is it necessary to sell state assets, and why the leadership of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are actively pushing the country towards a new large-scale privatization. A chance for development or another "scam"? Let's try to figure it out.
Andrey Kostin, head of VTB, was the first to announce the possibility of a new round of privatization in Russia. The essence of Kostin's thought is simple: the country needs additional sources of income. To pour into the economy the necessary funds, it is necessary to carry out privatization, increase the public debt and distribute budget expenditures in accordance with the country's primary needs.
According to Kostin, the priority areas for spending the money coming from privatization should be the development of new transport corridors with infrastructure, the launch of new industries using import-substituting of technologies, as well as the development of the military industry. The most likely targets for privatization were immediately identified: shares in Transneft, Russian Railways, Russian Post, non-core assets of Rostec and Rosatom, and at the same time cognac factories.
Will it be like in the 90s?
Naturally, the privatization proposal became a trigger for the irritation of the people, who remember vouchers, loans-for-shares auctions and other attributes of the squandering of state property in the 90s.
The idea was received with hostility by many economists. For example, analyst Mikhail Khazin in his interview outlined the circle of interests of the new privatization: “2-3 million people in our country who know for sure that this is the only way to make money. They do not know how to work, they do not know how to deal with the economy of the state, they do not know how to be responsible for state problems. The only thing they know how to do is to privatize and receive
kickbacks for this."
Even among experts, this opinion is not unique, but among ordinary people, the term "privatization" is firmly rooted next to "theft".
At the recent St. Petersburg Economic Forum, supporters of the new privatization concept did their best to convince the audience, and sometimes, perhaps even themselves, that the transfer of state property into the hands of business is good for the country.
The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, and presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin, as expected, supported Kostin's idea. According to Nabiullina, there is property in the country that can be privatized without prejudice to strategic interests, and Maxim Oreshkin specified that he was in favor of that. To transfer only that part of state assets that are used inefficiently and not just like that, but for the benefit of the budget.
At first glance, such a proposal looks logical, but questions remain: who will evaluate the effective use of this or that state property, or not? What is considered a good deal for the state? After all, if there is unprofitable production, even a free return to private hands can be justified by “benefit for the budget”.
Other experts, for example, Andrei Loboda, director of communications at the Russian mining company BitRiver, note that Russian assets are now undervalued due to the situation in which the country finds itself, and therefore the effect of the sale will not be so significant. The haste with which these ideas are being promoted to the masses only causes more mistrust towards Privatization 2.0.
Or maybe it's not so bad?
It is difficult to argue with the logic of privatization supporters. Indeed, public enterprises should, in theory, be less efficient than private companies that respond faster to market changes, adjust to the needs of the client, and their owners are personally interested and motivated to develop their business.
On the other hand, by selling a 20% stake in the same Transneft, the state will not lose control over the asset, but will be able to attract the funds needed now into the enterprise's economy. Even taking into account the wary attitude of investors and, perhaps, not the highest price for assets, revenues to the budget will clearly be more than from the privatization of state property over the past 10 years.
There is another motive why the authorities decided to talk about the sale of assets right now. After the Russian economy came under numerous sanctions, it became much more difficult to withdraw funds abroad. This is not about a couple of thousand dollars, but about much more significant amounts that used to settle with European and American developers or shipbuilding companies involved in the creation of superyachts.
Russian business has money, but nowhere to invest it. Large Russian companies' IPOs could give impetus to wealthy potential investors. According to some reports, in recent years, about 20 million private investors have appeared in Russia, trading shares on the Moscow Exchange. At the same time, the share of the state in the sectors that are promising for privatization exceeds 60%. An ideal alignment in order to inject funds into the economy sufficient for a qualitative leap forward.
Smooth on paper
So what can ordinary Russians expect from new privatization plans? Greetings from the not-so-distant 90s or the boom of the economy? The truth is most likely always somewhere in the middle. Of course, some enterprises, having received an additional influx of money, will be able to upgrade equipment, launch new production, expand, or at least continue to work without slowing down, which is sometimes an achievement in itself. Most likely, such a fate awaits companies where the controlling stake will remain with the state, and investors will closely monitor the effectiveness of management.
The situation is more complicated with illiquid state property, which the authorities will almost certainly try to transfer into reliable hands. Big business is not interested in such assets, and private investors and small companies are overwhelmingly unable to breathe life into such dead enterprises. They are likely to be "cut into metal."
One way or another, the process of preparation for Privatization 2.0 has started. It is definitely not worth expecting a large-scale sale of state property this year. Preparing assets is a long process. To form a list of objects, to evaluate them is a task that can be heroically coped with for a year or two. Most likely, the government plans to leave large tidbits like a cherry on a cake. In the meantime, the state is ready to part with small illiquid objects. The Ministry of Finance intends to launch a marketplace for the sale of such property before the end of the year. They promise that everyone can become an investor. It remains only to answer the question: Is it possible to make money on this?
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