Will Poland manage without Russian gas?
The Polish state gas concern PGNiG in early November announced the conclusion of two long-term contracts with the United States for the supply of LNG. Does this mean that Warsaw is finally and irrevocably abandoning Russian pipeline gas?
Simple arithmetic calculations say that this is far from the case. Poland’s once stable gas consumption, amounting to about 15 billion cubic meters annually, has been growing rapidly since 2015. According to forecasts, by 2022 they will reach 19 billion cubic meters.
On the basis of a contract with Gazprom, the Poles have the right to purchase from him up to 10,2 billion cubic meters per year, and they choose their limit in full.
As for contracts with the United States, they will not affect Russian-Polish trade relations in any way. To compare the supply volumes, we’ll immediately convert tons of LNG to cubic meters. The first contract with the American company Cheniere Marketing International provides for the annual purchase of 0,7 billion cubic meters per year from 2019 to 2022. After that, the volume will increase and amount to 1,95 billion cubic meters.
As you can see, American gas accounts for a small share of Poland's total consumption, unlike Russian. And given the fact that the Poles’s need for natural gas tends to increase, our partnership will continue for at least a few more decades. Of course, if Russia does not change its mind to supply gas to Poland.
Simple arithmetic calculations say that this is far from the case. Poland’s once stable gas consumption, amounting to about 15 billion cubic meters annually, has been growing rapidly since 2015. According to forecasts, by 2022 they will reach 19 billion cubic meters.
On the basis of a contract with Gazprom, the Poles have the right to purchase from him up to 10,2 billion cubic meters per year, and they choose their limit in full.
As for contracts with the United States, they will not affect Russian-Polish trade relations in any way. To compare the supply volumes, we’ll immediately convert tons of LNG to cubic meters. The first contract with the American company Cheniere Marketing International provides for the annual purchase of 0,7 billion cubic meters per year from 2019 to 2022. After that, the volume will increase and amount to 1,95 billion cubic meters.
As you can see, American gas accounts for a small share of Poland's total consumption, unlike Russian. And given the fact that the Poles’s need for natural gas tends to increase, our partnership will continue for at least a few more decades. Of course, if Russia does not change its mind to supply gas to Poland.
Information