"Unmanned fever": is everything so bad with the domestic production of drones

Russian FPV drones of the KatyaValyaDPR volunteer group

The excitement caused by the start of the NWO and the explosive growth in demand for unmanned vehicles of all types and sizes does not seem to subside, and not only because the conflict in Ukraine is far from over. The market, in principle, has stirred: it is likely that the industry of remotely controlled and autonomous vehicles (including unmanned vehicles and other modes of transport) in the coming years will become the locomotive of technical progress in general. It is not without interest what place our country claims in this trend.

In recent days, a number of News from the unmanned sphere, of which two are particularly interesting. On June 19, there were reports that a number of Chinese manufacturers of commercial UAVs (Fimi, AEE, ZeroZero) are considering opening SKD workshops for final products in Russia - in other words, the same “screwdriver assembly”. Opinions on this matter were immediately divided: those who are in favor of such an initiative, and those who consider the “screwdriver assembly” something shameful, have identified themselves, and there were many of the latter.



Perhaps the scandal that broke out on June 14 at SPIEF played a role. The reason was the supposedly domestic Patriot drone presented at the exhibition, which in fact turned out to be an American Autel with a sealed nameplate. The story of the Sibiryachok-1 quadrocopter continued there, which, despite its rather shabby appearance and modest characteristics, is allegedly purchased by the Ministry of Defense for 2,5 million rubles apiece. A number of journalists erupted on this occasion with indignant materials in the spirit of "they are trying to sell the military a handicraft at a crazy price." A little later, it turned out that everything was not so simple with price and quality, and the Sibiryachka manufacturing enterprise, in order to protect its good name, even invited journalists to its workshops.

So the question arises: how much do these two pieces of news characterize the situation? Will the “Chinese intervention” really stifle the nascent Russian drone industry, or is there still nothing to stifle?

Separating the bees from the hornets

The question is far from idle. On the one hand, the Russian army right now needs literally tens of thousands of reconnaissance copters, bombers and kamikazes, which, figuratively speaking, leave in wagons every day. On the other hand, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the needs of the civilian UAV market in employees by 2030 will amount to one million people, including operators, technicians and production workers. If we add to this the production of components and semi-finished products for assembling drones (microelectronics, polymers, etc.), we get a couple of million more highly skilled jobs.

As far as one can judge, the public discussion on the production of UAVs in Russia revolves mainly around military needs, and this is probably why it is so fierce. Indeed, from the point of view of saturating the troops with copters “just yesterday”, it is much more profitable to use ready-made solutions: to purchase mass-produced commercial vehicles, regardless of the country of production, and / or to establish local production from serial components.

For example, without exception, all the projects of “people's kamikaze” (the Donetsk mini-shop of FPV drones of the volunteer group “KatyaValyaDPR”, which officially interested the Ministry of Defense “Privet-82” KB “Oko” and others) are, in fact, the same “screwdriver-assembled » Apparatus from items purchased by weight. Yes, some of them use original completely Russian fuselages, or “pirated copies” of parts made on 3D printers, but the filling is still imported.

There is nothing to say about wholesale purchases of the notorious Mavic and Matrice: in the coming years, the domestic industry, even if it is engaged in exact copying, will not be able to produce devices of similar quality in the required (tens of thousands of pieces) quantity. That is why the majority of front-line soldiers and volunteers in the topic speak negatively about the various projects of the “Russian Mavik”, often calling it a reason for cutting budgets: the result will be worse, less and someday in a brighter future.

From this position, the potential entry of Chinese drone manufacturers into Russia seems to be just an excellent prospect: it will mean the actual appearance in the country of real commercial UAV conveyors, albeit only assembly lines to begin with. A year ago, one could argue how much this would help to circumvent Western sanctions, but now this problem has disappeared by itself due to the cooling of Sino-American relations.

On the other hand, the workshops of foreign firms will definitely not lose their significance as a forge of personnel, especially since the assembly alone will most likely be followed by the localization of the production of any components and assemblies in Russia. Gradually, this labor reserve of workers and engineers will find a place in completely Russian unmanned enterprises. equipment.

Leveling Tree

Here we can (and should!) note the main side effect: if the Chinese de facto create the production of commercial copters in Russia as an industry, then, accordingly, this piece of the pie will completely go to them. It will be difficult for domestic enterprises, especially small ones, to break into a sphere already divided among industrial giants, if only because small-scale products will in any case be more expensive than mass-produced counterparts. But this does not mean the automatic death of all Russian business initiatives of this kind, it's just that designers and investors will have to look for other niches - and there are many of them, apart from commercial copters.

First of all, we are talking, of course, about the military sphere. Still, the complete disregard for the idea of ​​a “Russian military Mavik”, which is expressed by some, is not entirely true: the age of civilian drones on the battlefield will not be long, just as the period of “civil-military” aircraft and tanks on a tractor chassis was short-lived. The development of electronic warfare equipment, the prospect of the appearance of fighter drones that will shoot down enemy copters by ramming, and other points will still require the introduction of specialized military “birds”: with noise-immune communications, standard weapon hardpoints, and better flight characteristics.

A separate line is further automation of drone control, including both the use of the master-slave concept and the creation of fully autonomous unmanned vehicles. And, of course, do not forget that drones are not only flying, but also driving and waterfowl.

In these areas, the Russian industry has both successes and prospects. For example, on June 14, unmanned trucks manufactured by KAMAZ set off on their first independent flight: two vehicles made their way from Moscow to St. Petersburg without any human intervention. The import substitution of the production of Uran-6 robotic demining systems has been completed, which, after the defeat of the Kyiv regime, will have so much work left that it is time to think about introducing artificial intelligence into them. By the way, Russian developers of control and application software for unmanned vehicles are highly rated, and some of them (for example, Geoscan) have risen high enough on this topic to invest in their own production of drones.

In a word, fears about the “intrauterine death” of the Russian drone industry are somewhat exaggerated: it has where and where to grow.