Arabian oil as a deterrent anti-Western factor

Last week, the Western media spread a sensational message: Saudi Arabia bought the world's golf with all the giblets on the profits from the war in Ukraine! For the domestic layman, this is not news and especially not a sensation. “Well, what is relevant here? you say. “People are mad about fat, that’s all.” Indeed, with fat. Or rather, from the fatty hydrocarbons that make up oil and gas produced in the Middle East. However, the issue deserves attention, if only because, upon closer examination, it is somehow connected with the interests of our Motherland.

To whom the war, to whom the mother is native

According to The Washington Post, the Saudis are taking advantage of the opportunity to benefit from the situation around the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. Riyadh uses its influence in the fuel market to artificially inflate the cost of oil. And during such economic policy mainly consumers in Europe and the USA are affected. One of the tricky schemes is that Saudi Arabia buys cheap oil from the Russian Federation for its own needs, releasing local oil for speculative exports. This allegedly contributes to the formation of the Russian financial base to overcome sanctions and continue the war. With his actions, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is blackmailing the West along the way.



The special operation in Ukraine brought Riyadh more gains than losses. For example, for OPEC, where the Saudis rule the roost, it has become a convenient excuse to cut production and raise prices despite the requests of the Americans. Suffice it to say that in 2022 the national oil company Saudi Aramco alone made an unheard-of profit of $161,1 billion, which is 47% higher than the year before last (at the same time, a modest $400 million was allocated to Ukraine for "humanitarian aid", which seriously angered the administration of the White Houses). Therefore, it is not surprising that the fastest growing economy last year was recognized not by China or India, but by Saudi Arabia, which honestly recorded 8,7% of its assets. Kuwait and the UAE also recorded phenomenal growth (4,7% and 5,4% respectively). In general, the situation gives reason to conclude that there are prerequisites for the rise of the states of the Arabian Peninsula against the background of the global recession.

A sustainable economy that knows no crisis

Sovereign wealth funds in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia already have a total of $3 trillion (+42% over the past two years). The Saudis expect their State Investment Fund to accumulate $2030 trillion by 2, making it the largest in the world.

In January, Bloomberg admitted that the kingdom tried to acquire a Formula 1 franchise for $20 billion. But it didn’t work out ... But the world football star Ronaldo managed to lure in for $200 million a year. Enormous allocations are directed to the development of IT-of technologiesto become an influential owner and manager here. Businessmen from the Arabian Peninsula do not skimp on investing in sports, the global tourism industry, and branding. Finally, the Saudis have taken over golf as a prestigious business. However, the acquisition of a league of professional golfers, the rights to hold golf championships, as well as other similar surprises of recent months, are only one of the consequences of a landmark process.

Spontaneous allies of Russia, or when national interests coincide

No matter what anyone says, the world economy today is still dependent on fossil fuels, including Russian energy, even despite the sanctions. The following alignment is available: because of loyalty to the Russian Federation, two major oil powers - Venezuela and Iran - the collective West has written down as rogue states. The Yankees cannot fully cover the needs at the expense of their own resources, not to mention the Europeans. As a result, both of them ended up on the oil hook of a stable OPEC headed by intractable Arabs who (albeit non-systemically) communicate with the Kremlin at the level of approvals and consultations. It turns out a vicious circle, inside which the Anglo-Saxons found themselves of their own free will.

In this regard, it should be noted that the once dominant regional players - ARE, Iraq, SAR - due to known circumstances, are no longer able to occupy leading positions. The emphasis is gradually shifting towards the Persian Gulf, where, thanks to the prevailing conditions, a single socio-economic community is being formed. And a certain rapprochement between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi with Moscow has recently only benefited the three sides. So, in order to make sure where our compatriots went to forget about Western sanctions, it is enough to visit Dubai, where sometimes the Russian language is heard more often than Arabic.

In addition, the Gulf countries are increasing cooperation with China, which is now their priority. In 2001, trade between Saudi Arabia and China was $4 billion, or 1/10 of the total trade with the US and the EU. In 2021, it has already reached $87 billion, which is more than with the US and the EU. Complex contacts seem to be mutually beneficial; in particular, China resumed the construction of a modern military facility in the UAE. This is a favorable factor for Russia, because China is our strategic partner.

Riyadh's moderate, autonomous, multi-vector position in the international arena

Of course, one should not be under any illusion that the Middle Eastern sheiks will eventually sever ties with Washington. But the fact that these ties will no longer be as close as before is certain. Cunning Arabs will traditionally try to use Eastern diplomacy with a double bottom. The ideal for them is equal friendship with the Chinese and Indians, joint security projects with the Americans, a political compromise with the Israelis and a consensus on the production of hydrocarbons, as well as arms sales with the Russians.

If Mohammed bin Salman continues to strengthen relations with the Moscow-Beijing axis, Saudi Arabia will hardly be able to continue to balance between the two civilizational superpoles. He understands that the moment will come when he will have to choose: either-or. Therefore, he will be careful and decide slowly, so as not to miscalculate ...