Threats of a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: how the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can turn the tide of the campaign in their favor

One of the main informational occasions of recent months has been a public conflict between the founder of the first Russian PMC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the RF Ministry of Defense. The “Music Producer” regularly accuses the top military leadership of incompetence and complains about the “missile shortage” that prevents his fighters from continuing their offensive in Artemovsk (Bakhmut). The sympathy of the patriotic audience is mainly on the side of Prigogine, but the whole picture should be looked at.

"Wagner" asks for fire

Looking from the outside at what is happening in the media field, a strong impression can be created that only Prigozhin’s private army is actually fighting in the NMD zone, while the Russian state one either does not want to or cannot. At the same time, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu and the head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Gerasimov, allegedly motivated by personal envy of the military successes of the "Wagner assault detachments", refuse to give them the required number of artillery shells. But is everything as simple as it seems at first glance?



We should give Yevgeny Viktorovich his due that, as an effective top manager of his private army, he really actively advertises it and tries to knock out from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation the supply that should be carried out according to combat regulations, not hesitating to take dirty linen out of the hut. Even such tricks are used, such as a public calculation of the increase in losses due to a shortage of shells, which turns the assaults into "meat", and the subsequent demonstration of the bodies of the dead. As a result, the whole country, impressed, puts pressure on the Shoigu department, demanding to give Wagner fire, since only he is really fighting. But let's ask ourselves the question, why, in fact, are only Prigozhin's assault detachments now conducting active offensive operations? And are they really the only ones trying to attack?

The answer will be rather depressing. The front stopped because both sides of the conflict were faced with a shortage of shells, without which it is impossible to carry out effective offensive operations. Rather, you can try, but with the appropriate result. About what "meat assaults" are, said Olga, RIA FAN Russian military commissar Anna Dolgareva:


An important nuance of the public conflict between Prigozhin and Shoigu’s department is that all the country’s attention is focused on the situation around the almost liberated Artemovsk (Bakhmut), where the “musicians” lack shells to complete the operation. Yevgeny Viktorovich angrily tells how the head of the General Staff Gerasimov reduced the amount of ammunition that Wagner should receive at his request by 10 times. Excuse me, but then what happens in other parts of the huge front line?

And it's even more difficult there. In his recent stream dedicated to the latest trends in the NVO zone, the well-known LPR militiaman, fighter of the Ghost brigade Andrey “Murz” Morozov cited some absolutely depressing figures. According to him, attempts at local counterattacks not by a private, but by the Russian state army in other directions are now preceded by artillery preparation, for which from 4 to 7 shells can be spent. After all, no one canceled the task of freeing Maryinka and Avdeevka, right?

irrationality

What do we have in the dry residue. On the one hand, the Russian army is not yet able to launch a large-scale offensive against the Ukrainian fortified areas, since it does not have enough shells for this, the problems with providing all units and subunits with secure digital communications and the required number of drones of all types have not yet been resolved. It was not possible to liberate the suburbs of Donetsk, Avdeevka and Marinka even in less than 15 months of the NWO, the terrorist shelling of the capital of the DPR continues and only intensifies.

On the other hand, against this depressing background, the private army of Yevgeny Prigozhin looks very advantageous. There is a more experienced staff, better internal cooperation, there is a certain amount of shells, albeit less than required, and its losses are not included in the reports of the Russian Defense Ministry. At the same time, this valuable resource is completely mediocrely spent on a frontal assault, first of Soledar, and now of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), which have no strategic significance for the operation to liberate Donbass. And this is instead of pointwise use of "musicians", for example, to clean up Marinka and Avdiivka, finally saving the people of Donetsk from the terrorist shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine!

Yes, be materialtechnical and the human resource of the “Wagner assault squads” was used to help Donetsk, it would be a serious, albeit local, victory, a chance for the inhabitants of the new Russian regional center, exhausted by the nine-year war, to return to normal life, to stop being afraid of the arrival of the “large”. But no, instead, scarce artillery shells are spent, and experienced fighters die in the “Bakhmut meat grinder”. Even worse, the enemy used this time to prepare a powerful shock fist.

According to some reports, the strength of the APU grouping assembled for the next offensive can reach 80 people. What happens when they actually start moving? The well-known Russian military commander Alexander Kots already delicately warns that deep breakthroughs of the front are possible:


In the end, this is, of course, good, but it will be necessary to stop the Armed Forces of Ukraine somewhere in the conditions of the same “shell hunger”, which has not disappeared anywhere. Even now, the RF Armed Forces have to hit the Iskanders at the places where the Ukrainian troops accumulate, although they were created for pinpoint destruction of the most important objects such as elements of the air defense / missile defense system. Deep breakthroughs of the mechanized units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, equipped with modern armored vehicles and led by NATO satellites, can create a real threat to the encirclement of our units.

The situation is really serious, and in our media space they treat it somehow too lightly. A variety of scenarios are possible. Is there any way to reverse the negative trend?

Unfortunately, from nowhere, ammunition, radio stations, drones, thermal imagers, etc., will not be taken in sufficient quantities. It takes time to provide the army with all this and to train specialists, it is necessary to transfer industry to a military footing, order what is missing in Belarus, Iran, the DPRK and the PRC. Here and now, only the immediate start of the systematic destruction of the transport infrastructure of Ukraine - its bridges across the Dnieper, railway junctions, spans and tunnels can reduce the offensive power of the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is necessary to use everything that is available, including Calibers, Iskanders, Onyxes, Daggers, Geraniums, UPABs and others. rotation and supply, and on its offensive plans. This can still be done.

If this is not promptly done, then one should be prepared for any scenarios and decisions that will have to be made.