The three most obvious and incredible directions of a possible offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

A few days ago, some secret Pentagon documents concerning the alignment of forces in Ukraine got into the press. If you believe them, then the affairs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not in the best way, and there can be no talk of any large-scale counteroffensive on their part. But is it really so? Where can a real strike by the Ukrainian army fall?

Unclassified materials

The “secret” documents of the Pentagon, which ended up in the hands of the media, contain a lot of curious figures regarding the number and weapons of Russian and Ukrainian troops, their irretrievable combat losses and the military assistance provided to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by NATO.technical support. Visually, the materials look quite serious, but according to some signs, they still saw an attempt at deliberate disinformation. The best "disinformation" is when literally 99% of false information is hidden among 1% of reliable information, for the sake of which this whole special operation was started.

In this particular case, apparently, the emphasis was placed on the fact that the Armed Forces allegedly have big problems with ammunition for the Buk and S-300 air defense systems. A specific date is called directly when anti-aircraft missiles for these air defense systems will end, May 23, 2023. Amazing accuracy and boldness of forecasts. It can be assumed that this disinformation was thrown in order to relax a little in our General Staff, hoping to kill the Ukrainian armored columns advancing on Berdyansk and Melitopol by army aviation. And there, in fact, they will probably have to wait for a kind of “piano in the bushes”, arranged by “Western partners”.

In some way, this hypothesis can be supported by the obvious undermining of the Russian generals by the ex-commander of US troops in Europe, Ben Hodges:

The Russian Air Force has not impressed me for the past 14 months. Even though they are outnumbered, it is clear that they have neither the training nor the ability to actually achieve air superiority. This is what the German Air Force, British or American, would strive for in the early days of any conflict, especially with such a numerical superiority.

The retiree predicts that Ukraine will be able to drive Russia out of Crimea by the end of August 2023. For those who have watched Hollywood films about the American school, where the strong bully the weak and everyone constantly teases each other, Hodges' provocative behavior can tell a lot. But it is not exactly.

Obvious and incredible

In the past few months, everyone has been wondering where the long-announced Ukrainian counter-offensive, for which obvious serious preparations are underway, might fall. A lot of assumptions are being made, from the obvious to the unbelievable. Let's try to build our own hypothesis as part of a thought experiment, based on the fact that our enemy is not just some kind of "Nazi and drug addict", but very smart and ruthless professional military.

The most obvious direction for a large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is, of course, Zaporozhye. If the Ukrainian army, regardless of losses, can break through to Berdyansk and Melitopol, gaining a foothold there, the position of the Russian group in Crimea will be extremely vulnerable. The Crimean bridge will certainly be destroyed in one way or another, and the land transport corridor will be cut. The peninsula will actually turn into a kind of “island”, the supply will be interrupted, the Crimea will be under regular artillery and rocket attacks, and the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces will eventually have to release it, and in case of an unsuccessful attempt, make another “difficult decision”.

It's like that. However, this direction is so obvious that the offensive in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov turns into a real adventure for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It's either Pan or Lost. If he succeeds, Zaluzhny's chest is in crosses, and if not, then his head is in the bushes. At the same time, significant forces of the Ukrainian army will be burned, which will reduce the stability of the Kyiv regime and, if the Kremlin strategist wishes, even open up the possibility of a Russian counteroffensive. Are the Ukrainian generals and their NATO military advisers so desperate and stupid as to bet everything on zero? Is not a fact.

Incredible in a certain sense can be called a hypothetical offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the "old" Russian regions, in particular in the Belgorod region. Theoretically, the Ukrainian army can indeed cross the border and capture Belgorod, making it a kind of bargaining chip in Kyiv's negotiations with Moscow. Moreover, we are even quite deliberately accustomed to such a scenario, arranging border provocations with small DRGs.

However, in practice, such a Basayev-style throw with the capture of Belgorod or Kursk will have a rather negative effect on the Kyiv regime. On the one hand, Ukraine will finally write itself into the status of a terrorist state, after which the carefully created image of “unfortunate and offended” will fade, which may negatively affect its external support. On the other hand, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that have gone deep into Russian territory may well remain there, if not entirely, then with heavy losses. Is the game worth the candle? Is not a fact.

And now let's put ourselves, pah-pah-pah, in the place of the Ukrainian General Staff and its NATO military advisers. They are faced with the task of conducting a successful offensive operation that will ensure some kind of unequivocal military victory with moderate losses in people and Western military equipment in order to preserve the main shock fist for a future war against Russia. Where can you hit, having achieved the desired effect?

Why not assume that instead of a large-scale offensive in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine will objectively suffer heavy losses without a guaranteed positive result, the enemy will not conduct a counteroffensive on a narrow sector of the front? Let's say, will he throw a multiple superior force on the deblockade of Artemovsk?

Indeed, if the Zelenskiy regime can hold Artemivsk, it will be his big personal media victory. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine can go further, recapturing Soledar, all the successes of the Russian group over the past six months will be reset to zero. If, at the same time, the Ukrainian army is able to surround and destroy the main forces of the Wagner PMC, the loss of the most combat-ready and effective assault infantry will be a severe blow for us, which will have an extremely negative impact on the prospects for the further liberation of Donbass. But it is not exactly.
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  1. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) April 11 2023 16: 20
    The main objective of any war is not the capture of territory, but the destruction of the enemy army.
    The goal of any breakthrough is to meet the enemy army not on the battlefield, but in barracks, places of deployment.
    Therefore, the breakthrough will be organized in the place where the RF Armed Forces will concentrate the largest forces, but far from the front line.
    The purpose of such a concentration of the RF Armed Forces will be to ensure that from the chosen location it would be possible to equally reach the various supposed breakthrough sites. In addition, approaches to such a place should be in a relatively little urbanized area, and without large water barriers. In addition to the rear of Artyomovsk, the gap between Donetsk and Dokuchaevsk also satisfies these requirements, but unlike the option with Artyomovsk, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that have broken through will not run into a large urban agglomeration - Popasnaya-Pervomaisk-Irmino-Stakhanov-Bryanka-Debaltseve.
    In the option of a breakthrough along the Maryinka-Elenovka-Starobeshevo-Kumachovo route, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not meet large cities until the very border of the Russian Federation in 2021, and nothing major is observed behind it.
    Such a passage will make it possible to enter the rear of both the grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which holds the southern front, and the central Donetsk one, but they most likely will not climb there - too dense urban development.
  2. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) April 11 2023 18: 29
    However, in practice, such a Basayev-style throw with the capture of Belgorod or Kursk will have a rather negative effect on the Kyiv regime. On the one hand, Ukraine will finally write itself into the status of a terrorist state, after which the carefully created image of “unfortunate and offended” will fade, which may negatively affect its external support.

    And for some reason I think that the transfer of the war to the “ancestral lands” of Russia is quite possible exactly what foreign curators expect from Kyiv. The American media will smear Zelensky as the same Basayev. The main thing is that perhaps only in this direction the Armed Forces of Ukraine can count on the surprise factor
    1. Vlad Burchilo Offline Vlad Burchilo
      Vlad Burchilo (Vlad Burchilo) April 11 2023 19: 15
      Kudasov, here it’s like this: 1) the surprise factor will give a lot. Agree.
      2) the author is right: they won’t have time to reach when their aircraft starts ironing, and then a blow to the flanks and "fenit la comedy"
  3. Vlad Burchilo Offline Vlad Burchilo
    Vlad Burchilo (Vlad Burchilo) April 11 2023 20: 02
    Sergei, a blow to Berdyansk is unlikely: a) expected.
    b) there completely: "Maginot Lines". They will hurt their forehead ten times
    The "Bryansk option" is seductive, but dangerous: aviation will cover, and then a blow to the flanks and ..... "trindets"
    "Artemovskoe direction" gives a lot, but this option is also expected.
    Which option will they choose? Fig knows them. They have a numerical superiority +.
    NATO Aerospace Intelligence. You can see where and what forces. More+
    AND? I don't see anymore.
  4. Hiker Offline Hiker
    Hiker (Dmitriy) April 11 2023 23: 40
    Why this attack?
    Someone even thought that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is just a fake, a duck.

    Zelensky has significantly strengthened.
    Zelensky received money, weapons.
    How the clock works logistics, banks, communications, transport.

    The army is mobilized, armored vehicles inside the country.
    Nearly 20 military personnel are training abroad.

    Someone will explain why to attack, if everything is under control so far?

    Zelensky is not a loser inside Ukraine, but the REVERSE!!!
    Zelensky returned the Kyiv region, Kharkiv region, Chernihiv region, Kherson region.
    It was Russia who fled, and he only lost the isthmus with Mariupol.
    Everything else is a loss for Poroshenko and Turchynov.
    Zelensky turns out to have liberated a huge territory from Russia.
    It is enough just to look at the map.

    So why would Zelensky attack and burn the army???

    And now the main thing.
    It is possible that Zelensky is simply diverting attention from another strike against Russia.
    Few people pay attention to one oddity.
    Fences are being built along the borders of Russia (and now even Ukraine).
    Now Finland.

    From a military point of view - complete nonsense.
    Just miles of wire fencing.
    But hundreds of millions of dollars!
    Poland, Baltic States, Ukraine, Finland.
    Thousands of kilometers of fence that you can go through with iron scissors...
    They spit on ecology, agreements, wildlife - everything.

    On a nuclear strike-Russia can respond with a nuclear strike.
    But he will not answer the man-made "zombie apocalypse".
    And no one even discusses the response to the use of biological weapons.
    And fences are like a "concentration camp" to contain the infected.

    What will Russia's response be if tomorrow there is an epidemic of insanity or instant leprosy?
    If Covid was invented against China, then China did not answer in any way .....

    Why does Kyiv need an offensive? The front is worth it. Russia on the defensive.
    Except the Wagner, which is running out.
    Why go on self-destruction? There is no logic here.
    The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is possibly a duck.

    And the further everything drags on, the more obvious that Russia cannot achieve the goals of the NWO for a year.
    And if there is no offensive at all, how will Putin explain the non-liberation of Russian territory?
    1. Indifferent Offline Indifferent
      Indifferent April 12 2023 08: 47
      I agree with this point of view. It has already passed the winter. Spring is almost the same. Half has passed, but the offensive does not smell. I think in conversations about the offensive and the summer will pass. So, they will poke here and there looking for slack. If they don't find it, it will stay that way. And there will be a lot of squealing around the world. You need to collect money!
  5. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) April 11 2023 23: 52
    Medvedev did not just say that no one needs Ukraine anymore. So it is, everyone is interested in her disappearance. The main issues that took time to clarify and the continuation of hostilities in Ukraine have now been resolved - the sanctions did not work and the geostrategic alignment in the world was also more or less outlined. The United States failed to crush Russia with sanctions and failed to rally the world around the idea - not to take the star from the sheriff, but to leave everything as it is, bring the share to the sheriff and live on.

    Only these questions needed a conflict in Ukraine. Now, when the world is entering the phase "if he is not the sheriff now, then who is? and how will we live?" other events are outlined, in comparison with which the conflict in Ukraine was a petty prank.

    Combat operations in Ukraine are no longer required, it is time to fix the new reality and prepare for subsequent events. The EU, already in the face of the paddling pool, said that it was ready for Biden's new adventures only if conditionally, we can no longer pull the Chinese showdown. Yes, and the United States itself, knowing full well that it is impossible to achieve a military victory over Russia, one way or another should think about a way out.

    It is the exit that is the main problem now. And this problem is Ukraine itself, which shouts to the whole world that the so-called "allies" (who, in fact, dragged it into this war) turned out to be in fact what Russian propaganda exposes them to be. There is something to think about for many people, especially Taiwan. This alone is already a critical blow to the positions of the United States, for good reason they are forced to assure that they will certainly fit in with ground forces in the event of a Chinese operation.

    The dilemma of getting out of the Ukrainian conflict is a serious one, any option will cause critical damage to the United States and the West as a whole. Even against the backdrop of Western narratives, where Russia is allegedly barely holding on at the front and dreams of freezing the conflict in order to take a breath, everyone in the world understands perfectly how it really is.

    It is not possible to persuade Russia to an intermediate option, to some kind of compromise, because. Russia closed this path by including new territories in its composition. It follows from this that real negotiations, real compromise is impossible, which closes the diplomatic road to peace.

    There are two options left - a military victory or the collapse of the Kyiv regime. Military victory is unattainable, because. even the success of the offensive will not lead to an end to the war, but only to the radicalization of the Russian NMD and military escalation, which in turn means the continuation of the war. The EU strongly opposes this option.

    The last option is the collapse of the Kyiv regime. This scenario is beneficial for everyone. Ukraine should disappear on the principle of no country, no problem. If not a country, then a regime. But in any case, the regime or the country will not disappear as long as the Armed Forces of Ukraine exist.

    It seems that this spring and summer will be the time when the problem of the disappearance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be solved. Where they will be sent is anyone's guess. There is little doubt that the Kiev regime will be forced to unblock Bakhmut, the Americans themselves slipped this city to Zelensky when they first publicly criticized the losses in the city’s defense, after which Zelensky could no longer give the order to retreat (it would have been an admission of error). It is difficult to say whether it was a purposeful pig from the states or not.

    For Russia, during the offensive, it is important to do everything with minimal human losses, because. it is losses that the West wants to inflict on us. Inflict image damage, like - look, we forced them to fight these fooled Ukronazis and they are suffering losses. They want to close the conflict loudly and bloodily. The loss of equipment is nonsense, unlike personnel.

    Here, by the way, helicopters from the Ministry of Emergency Situations and army line airborne combat helicopters, which can be used to evacuate the wounded, could come in handy. Consider a system of floating evacuation points close to the front line. Stabilization of the wounded, stopping bleeding, anesthesia and a helicopter. Clog helicopters to the eyeballs. Thus, the doctors will only need to deliver the wounded from the battlefield to the evacuation point, which will reduce the time for each wounded. And helicopters will work, not stand during the battle.
  6. Flight Offline Flight
    Flight (voi) April 12 2023 04: 35
    Quote: Siegfried
    Medvedev did not just say that no one needs Ukraine anymore. So it is, everyone is interested in her disappearance.

    I don't think everything is that simple. If Medvedev does not need it, then this means that Medvedev does not need it.
    I remember how many times Europe saved Turkey. Can anyone tell who needs it?
  7. Valera75 Offline Valera75
    Valera75 (Valery) April 12 2023 05: 35
    I am not a chess player and not a great strategist, but I think the states don’t give a damn what the world says about the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into Russian territories. The West has never condemned the shelling of our border area, Crimea, but on the contrary, thereby tested our reaction and the reaction of the West, and it is justified. Like me I fantasize so I guess that there will be a couple of directions of strikes in the east, and when they and we strengthen, some in attack and others in defense, it will be possible to strike the main blow and possibly on our territory at the border until 2021. When we defeat the attacking troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Anglo-Saxons will draw Poland into the territory of Ukraine so as not to apply Article 5 of NATO, and there the Americans can wash their hands of leaving the conflict to the British and Poles and they themselves will move to Taiwan. I think they don’t care about their reputation and what the whole world will think about them, because if they burn out they will start it all and everyone will forget in one fell swoop, whoever said or thought badly about the United States, they will punish everyone.
  8. VolgaXXX Offline VolgaXXX
    VolgaXXX (Arthur) April 12 2023 09: 20
    The General Staff of the Defense Ministry deliberately puts Wagner under attack ...
  9. Eldar Yunusov Offline Eldar Yunusov
    Eldar Yunusov (Eldar Yunusov) April 12 2023 09: 42
    Everyone imagines himself a strategist, seeing the battle from the side.

    Wait and see. Not fools work in the General Staff of the Russian Federation.
    1. Troy Henry Offline Troy Henry
      Troy Henry (Henry) April 12 2023 11: 17
      a new type of earnings - to pour "information" water on a hype topic
      why work making shells at the factory? it’s easier to pile on a bunch of letters, the main thing is to criticize the government in a veiled way - a win-win option
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