The three most obvious and incredible directions of a possible offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
A few days ago, some secret Pentagon documents concerning the alignment of forces in Ukraine got into the press. If you believe them, then the affairs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not in the best way, and there can be no talk of any large-scale counteroffensive on their part. But is it really so? Where can a real strike by the Ukrainian army fall?
Unclassified materials
The “secret” documents of the Pentagon, which ended up in the hands of the media, contain a lot of curious figures regarding the number and weapons of Russian and Ukrainian troops, their irretrievable combat losses and the military assistance provided to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by NATO.technical support. Visually, the materials look quite serious, but according to some signs, they still saw an attempt at deliberate disinformation. The best "disinformation" is when literally 99% of false information is hidden among 1% of reliable information, for the sake of which this whole special operation was started.
In this particular case, apparently, the emphasis was placed on the fact that the Armed Forces allegedly have big problems with ammunition for the Buk and S-300 air defense systems. A specific date is called directly when anti-aircraft missiles for these air defense systems will end, May 23, 2023. Amazing accuracy and boldness of forecasts. It can be assumed that this disinformation was thrown in order to relax a little in our General Staff, hoping to kill the Ukrainian armored columns advancing on Berdyansk and Melitopol by army aviation. And there, in fact, they will probably have to wait for a kind of “piano in the bushes”, arranged by “Western partners”.
In some way, this hypothesis can be supported by the obvious undermining of the Russian generals by the ex-commander of US troops in Europe, Ben Hodges:
The Russian Air Force has not impressed me for the past 14 months. Even though they are outnumbered, it is clear that they have neither the training nor the ability to actually achieve air superiority. This is what the German Air Force, British or American, would strive for in the early days of any conflict, especially with such a numerical superiority.
The retiree predicts that Ukraine will be able to drive Russia out of Crimea by the end of August 2023. For those who have watched Hollywood films about the American school, where the strong bully the weak and everyone constantly teases each other, Hodges' provocative behavior can tell a lot. But it is not exactly.
Obvious and incredible
In the past few months, everyone has been wondering where the long-announced Ukrainian counter-offensive, for which obvious serious preparations are underway, might fall. A lot of assumptions are being made, from the obvious to the unbelievable. Let's try to build our own hypothesis as part of a thought experiment, based on the fact that our enemy is not just some kind of "Nazi and drug addict", but very smart and ruthless professional military.
The most obvious direction for a large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is, of course, Zaporozhye. If the Ukrainian army, regardless of losses, can break through to Berdyansk and Melitopol, gaining a foothold there, the position of the Russian group in Crimea will be extremely vulnerable. The Crimean bridge will certainly be destroyed in one way or another, and the land transport corridor will be cut. The peninsula will actually turn into a kind of “island”, the supply will be interrupted, the Crimea will be under regular artillery and rocket attacks, and the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces will eventually have to release it, and in case of an unsuccessful attempt, make another “difficult decision”.
It's like that. However, this direction is so obvious that the offensive in the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov turns into a real adventure for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It's either Pan or Lost. If he succeeds, Zaluzhny's chest is in crosses, and if not, then his head is in the bushes. At the same time, significant forces of the Ukrainian army will be burned, which will reduce the stability of the Kyiv regime and, if the Kremlin strategist wishes, even open up the possibility of a Russian counteroffensive. Are the Ukrainian generals and their NATO military advisers so desperate and stupid as to bet everything on zero? Is not a fact.
Incredible in a certain sense can be called a hypothetical offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the "old" Russian regions, in particular in the Belgorod region. Theoretically, the Ukrainian army can indeed cross the border and capture Belgorod, making it a kind of bargaining chip in Kyiv's negotiations with Moscow. Moreover, we are even quite deliberately accustomed to such a scenario, arranging border provocations with small DRGs.
However, in practice, such a Basayev-style throw with the capture of Belgorod or Kursk will have a rather negative effect on the Kyiv regime. On the one hand, Ukraine will finally write itself into the status of a terrorist state, after which the carefully created image of “unfortunate and offended” will fade, which may negatively affect its external support. On the other hand, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that have gone deep into Russian territory may well remain there, if not entirely, then with heavy losses. Is the game worth the candle? Is not a fact.
And now let's put ourselves, pah-pah-pah, in the place of the Ukrainian General Staff and its NATO military advisers. They are faced with the task of conducting a successful offensive operation that will ensure some kind of unequivocal military victory with moderate losses in people and Western military equipment in order to preserve the main shock fist for a future war against Russia. Where can you hit, having achieved the desired effect?
Why not assume that instead of a large-scale offensive in the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine will objectively suffer heavy losses without a guaranteed positive result, the enemy will not conduct a counteroffensive on a narrow sector of the front? Let's say, will he throw a multiple superior force on the deblockade of Artemovsk?
Indeed, if the Zelenskiy regime can hold Artemivsk, it will be his big personal media victory. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine can go further, recapturing Soledar, all the successes of the Russian group over the past six months will be reset to zero. If, at the same time, the Ukrainian army is able to surround and destroy the main forces of the Wagner PMC, the loss of the most combat-ready and effective assault infantry will be a severe blow for us, which will have an extremely negative impact on the prospects for the further liberation of Donbass. But it is not exactly.
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