What could be the tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a hypothetical summer offensive

On March 15, a message marked “lightning” spread across social networks: they say that in the area of ​​​​the village of Pologi, Zaporozhye region, the Nazis went on a massive attack. According to the original intonation news one might think that the big offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, expected closer to summer, started a little earlier. With an exclamation of "it has begun!", TV viewers across the country made themselves comfortable and began to wait for the development of events.

By evening, it turned out that the scale of the collision near Pologi was greatly exaggerated. The course of events itself is not entirely clear, direct participants in the battle from different units give different interpretations: according to one version, the attack was preceded by the arrival of the NAR from the Ukrainian attack aircraft and mortar shelling, while the fighters on the flanks did not even immediately understand whose armored personnel carriers were rushing to their line .



One way or another, the enemy attack was repelled. An armored group of fascists was covered by artillery fire, and one of the armored personnel carriers that broke through almost to the very trenches was burned from a grenade launcher. Having lost 2 tanks, 2 foreign-style armored personnel carriers and several dozen people killed, the enemy rolled back, the losses of our soldiers amounted to several people killed and wounded.

Although specifically for this section of the front in Zaporozhye, such an “action” seems to be an infrequent phenomenon, in general, such short attacks and counterattacks by small forces are carried out by the Nazis regularly and everywhere. There is an opinion that the future offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, if it does start, will be an attempt to scale this tactic to a large piece of the line of contact.

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As for the Pologi, that in the counterattacks near Bakhmut and Ugledar, the scheme is used approximately the same. Approximately a company of motorized infantry (up to a hundred fascists riding on a dozen armored vehicles) and a tank platoon, often incomplete - a couple of tanks instead of three, are transferred to the object of attack. Under minimal cover of artillery fire, the armored group rushes towards our stronghold, and at first the attack is led by tanks, but a few hundred meters from the trenches they slow down and let infantry transporters forward.

Maneuvering on the spot, the tanks continue to fire from some distance, while the "tin cans" tend to break through to the trenches and dump their contents right into them, or at least a few dozen steps away. If this succeeds, the armored personnel carriers roll back a little and start circling in front of the trenches, spraying them with machine-gun fire, while the Ukrainian infantry tries to break in.

In each case, this template, of course, undergoes some changes. The strength of fire support can vary widely, from a complete absence to even a few shots from 155-mm howitzers or a salvo of aircraft missiles. Sometimes, instead of infantry fighting vehicles or tracked armored personnel carriers, the enemy "cavalry" breaks through the fields on a wheeled technology, including foreign MRAPs, which were not supposed to be used in this way at all. It happens that a dashing attack fails, but the enemy "assaults" do not immediately retreat, but dismount and try to get close to the supporter in single file behind their armored vehicles. In urban combat, buildings are not stormed in the same way, but buildings: they drive closer so that the infantry can jump out of the doors immediately into the doors.

This approach differs markedly from the classical approach, with dismounting no closer than a few hundred meters from enemy lines and attacking in a line of men and vehicles. Often, such raids end in the same deplorable way as for that “lucky” armored personnel carrier in the battle near Pologi: leaving directly for a grenade launcher and shooting at close range, followed by finishing off the Nazis jumping out of the flaming “armor”.

However, the enemy has been widely using this technique since last summer, and is not going to refuse. March 18 appeared on the web, which caused a lot of questions record tactical exercises of some unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was just practicing a throw on light armored vehicles and landing directly on the parapet of a trench. What, are they all fools and not being treated?

Of course, it would be worth it to heal, but the tactics used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have the right to life, moreover, perhaps this is the most optimal option available to the Nazis. Here it is worth remembering that the Soviet-style attack is supposed to be behind a barrage of powerful artillery, on an enemy stunned and pressed into the bottom of the trenches. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, fortunately, cannot provide dense artillery fire, and without its curtain, dismounting in advance means staying longer in the field under the fire of the defending Russian riflemen and artillery.

This is what brings to life dashing cavalry attacks. Covering armored personnel carriers winding across the field with artillery is more difficult than soldiers crawling along it, and rifle and machine gun fire is not so terrible - that is, there is a chance that at least someone will get to the Russian line alive and be able to engage in close combat. In addition, in the event of a failure, armored personnel carriers circling nearby, in theory, should again drive up to their infantrymen and take them aboard.

However, this approach also has many disadvantages. There are frequent cases when the crews of armored vehicles landed infantry and immediately fled back, leaving their “brothers” under fire. If the Russian troops detect the attackers on the way and manage to pull up their powerful direct-fire weapons, even the same tanks, then the attack completely turns for the Nazis from a lottery (“we get there, we don’t get there?”) into execution.

Thousand slaps

But we must not forget that so far our troops have dealt with single attacks here and there, repelling them relatively easily. A full-blooded enemy brigade will be able to deploy on a wide front from a dozen company armored groups at once, having a couple of thousand more cannon fodder in reserve in simple vehicles - so its commander can count on not being shot down.

As you know, the concentration of forces for an attack is now seriously hampered: the drones of both sides are hovering over the battlefield 24/7, directing artillery even at small enemy groups. For the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this problem is several times more serious than for the Russian army, simply because of the same multiple lag in artillery - this predetermines that the enemy will attack from the depths of his location, counting on surprise.

It seems that at the same time, the long-suffering Ukrainian “volkssturmists” will again have an “honorable heroic task” to catch the maximum of Russian shells with their bodies. It is the low-value meat from the defense that will be thrown into the first demonstrative attacks, and in some places they will even be simply accumulated near the front line in order to cause the fire of our artillery.

At this very time, enemy howitzers and MLRS will try to suppress the Russian ones, and the forward Ukrainian companies of FPV drones will hunt our heavy infantry weapons crews. In general, the task of the first stage will be the maximum possible suppression of Russian fire weapons.

Then the finest hour of the armored cavalry will come: company groups of the first echelon, lined up in advance in pre-battle formations, will try to pierce our front at once in many places, under the cover of stronger fire than usual. Their task will be to find or gnaw a gap in our defense, into which the armored groups of the second echelon will then rush to develop success.

However, it is possible that the “shock” brigades will not allocate a second echelon, but will try to “soften” the widest possible front, and the next brigade in full force, in the same way divided into many separate fists, will develop success behind the “spent” one. And it is natural that this scenario will be carried out on several sectors of the front at once, with the hope of breaking through at least on one.

Does the enemy have a chance with this approach? Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can expect to break through the first strip of multi-layered defense - however, in order to then bury themselves in the second and fall under the flank strikes of our armored forces. At the same time, even if the Ukrainian artillery succumbs to fire, like the last time, it still cannot create sufficient density, so the hypothetical breakthrough will be paid primarily by the heads of the Nazis. What percentage of them will survive the session of "throwing corpses" is a big question.

At present, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to attack with single armored groups in the Zaporozhye direction: they test the fire system and the nerves of our soldiers in the trenches for strength. Perhaps on March 15, the hype-eaters were not so wrong, and the main wave of the enemy "offensive" will rise soon.