Probable directions of APU strikes predicted

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Despite the numerous arguments of experts, functionaries and the military that the spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin in the Zaporozhye direction to approach the Crimea and cut the land corridor between the peninsula and the Donbass, much points to the likelihood of not one strike by the Ukrainian army, but two. Moreover, only in the process of hostilities, based on the operational situation, it will become clear which of them will be the main one, and which one will be auxiliary.


For Kyiv, Crimea is of great importance, but one should not forget that no one refused to take control of all territories within the borders of 2013. Over the past six months, the forces and means of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have accumulated enough to form at least two full-fledged corps. Taking into account the almost total mobilization of the male population and the gigantic military assistance of the Western allies, by April all preparations should be completed, and already in May the Armed Forces of Ukraine can begin active offensive operations.

Probably, the Ukrainian command is now probing all possible sectors of the gigantic front without exception. Where they feel the weakness of the defenders, the concentration of strike groups in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin.

It is possible that access to the Sea of ​​Azov will become one of the priority goals. But it is not at all necessary that the blow will be directed towards Melitopol and Berdyansk. The Armed Forces of Ukraine can go through Volnovakha to Mariupol in order to achieve the desired result at a shorter throw distance.

The second blow could be delivered in the Svatovsky direction to reach the Borovaya River (a tributary of the Seversky Donets), as well as cutting off a railway line and a highway in the area of ​​​​the Troitskoye village in the LPR, which will greatly complicate the supply of troops of the RF Armed Forces.

With two designated strikes, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may try to stretch the forces and means of the RF Armed Forces. It is difficult to predict whether they have enough reserves to deliver a third strike, because everything accumulated can be used in the two offensive operations indicated.
  • Used photographs: Armed Forces of Ukraine
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18 comments
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  1. syndicalist Offline syndicalist
    syndicalist (Dimon) 12 March 2023 20: 23
    +4
    You need to be a complete fool not to use the completely open direction Bryansk-Moscow
    1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
      rotkiv04 (Victor) 12 March 2023 21: 38
      +2
      Quote: syndicalist
      You need to be a complete fool not to use the completely open direction Bryansk-Moscow

      along the way, they have already demonstrated that they are not fools at all
    2. Baltika3 Offline Baltika3
      Baltika3 (Baltika3) 12 March 2023 22: 13
      +1
      completely open direction Bryansk-Moscow

      It was deliberately left uncovered. The columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may reach the MKAD and beyond. But there they will get stuck in traffic jams, scatter around the shops for beer and soon cease to exist as an organized force.
    3. Ru_Na Offline Ru_Na
      Ru_Na (Rustam) 12 March 2023 23: 27
      0
      Well, yes, and give an excellent informational reason to expose Ukraine as an aggressor in front of the Western layman. Understand one simple truth, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will only attack in the southern and southeastern directions on their former territories, there will be no attack on Bryansk, Kursk, Kiev does not need to change its role from victim to aggressor, otherwise there will not only be problems with Western assistance, but a number of other countries that want to spoil the United States will openly begin to help the Russian Federation in repelling Ukrainian aggression.
  2. Shmurzik Offline Shmurzik
    Shmurzik (Seymslav) 12 March 2023 20: 38
    0
    And a strike on Donetsk with a dissection of the group, followed by an attack in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, is not an option?
    Agree, but unlike the General Staff of the Russian Federation, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine thinks creatively ...
  3. svit55 Offline svit55
    svit55 (Sergey Valentinovich) 12 March 2023 20: 42
    +4
    Someone call Shoigu, although it is useless to him, well, at least Gerasimov, and tell him that the crests are preparing an offensive, otherwise everything will be unexpected again later.
    1. bonifacius Offline bonifacius
      bonifacius (Alex) 12 March 2023 22: 15
      -1
      No panic! There is a general "Armageddon" in reserve. Remember the brilliant operation in Kherson!
      1. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
        Vladimir80 13 March 2023 05: 00
        -2
        Perhaps a military defeat is now the main tactic of the towers, Wagner interfered a little with this tactic, but apparently he will be forever "put" in bakhmut ....
  4. Vlad Burchilo Offline Vlad Burchilo
    Vlad Burchilo (Vlad Burchilo) 12 March 2023 20: 49
    0
    Two blows, and which of them will be the main one will be determined in the process of the offensive. This is a classic of the genre.
    They have an overwhelming superiority in manpower, + the help of American reconnaissance satellites.
    They, on February 24, 2022, had just over 2000, half destroyed.
    Now, they expect to get 700-750.
    We REALLY can oppose: about a thousand modern tanks, and a total of 15.000 for storage, but this is a frank junk of the 60-70s. Against modern anti-tank weapons, and they have a huge amount of anti-tank weapons ..
    The advantage in modern aviation, apparently, with missiles, we will not yet experience deficiency.
    If the command is not at a loss and the infantry holds out. We'll still see what they come up with.
  5. Igor Alekseevich Offline Igor Alekseevich
    Igor Alekseevich (Igor Alekseevich) 12 March 2023 20: 58
    0
    The direction of the main attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Melitopol is a diversionary maneuver. I think the main direction will be in the Kherson region. - forcing the Dnieper. Landing craft will be brought in grain carriers, Turkey will miss, some will be sent down the Danube. Turkey is interested in the defeat of Russia and the "de-occupation" of the Crimea. Let's look at the history of WWII. Where did the Germans on the Black Sea come from submarines and torpedo boats? Built in Austria and launched down the Danube. What's stopping you from doing it again? Russia has enough Danube enemies. Recall the operation "Anadyr" in 1962. The USSR delivered missiles in grain carriers to Cuba. Now the West, taking advantage of the "grain deal", can transport tank landing barges to Odessa. The Anglo-Saxons have vast experience in landing operations and the widest range of landing equipment. My opinion is that the main blow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be in the form of forcing the Dnieper, and on Melitopol - a distracting or auxiliary one.
  6. bonifacius Offline bonifacius
    bonifacius (Alex) 12 March 2023 22: 21
    +3
    It is a pity that the General Staff of the Russian Defense Ministry does not read our comments.
    1. Plumbum Offline Plumbum
      Plumbum (Alexey) 12 March 2023 22: 32
      0
      Exactly)

      But there is no friendship between us.
      Destroying all prejudices
      We honor everyone with zeros
      And in units - yourself.
      We all look at Napoleon;
      There are millions of bipedal creatures.

      Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said in an interview with The Time that he respects Russian military institutions and keeps in his office the collected works of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov.

      According to Zaluzhny, he "grew up on Russian military doctrine" and still believes that "all military science is in Russia." The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that he studied with Gerasimov, who is 17 years older than him.

      “I read everything he ever wrote… He is the smartest of people, and my expectations from him were huge,” Zaluzny added.
      1. Vladimir Tuzakov Offline Vladimir Tuzakov
        Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 12 March 2023 23: 37
        0
        When the enemy praises, it is already clear that V. Gerasimov is a small fry, because the enemy benefits from insignificance in the place of the NGSH of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (If the enemies scold, then we act correctly. Retelling by V.I. Lenin). About the works, for the NGSh it’s enough for hangers-on and scientists from the Academy to write, and for him to sign for ten volumes. In addition, good theorists have never been good practitioners, so choose either a theorist or a practitioner, but it seems neither nothing else, according to the results of the SVO ..
  7. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
    Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 12 March 2023 22: 40
    -1
    Well, straight to Mariupol and Melitopol, to get stuck in urban battles. They will most likely try to encircle a large enough grouping of Russian troops to defeat it, and then move on to the cities. The offensive in Luhansk on Troitskoye from Svatovo without the encirclement of troops is futile. Well, they'll get Trinity and what. The supply routes for our troops will still be, only the logistics will change.
    1. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
      Vladimir80 13 March 2023 05: 03
      0
      We will not conduct urban defensive battles, we are "not allowed", the owners and ingenious strategies forbid, and in general the state of the army in our country is becoming similar to 1917 ...
  8. Siegfried Online Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 13 March 2023 02: 40
    +2
    it will be important to correct the mood for the advance of these shock corps during the concentration.
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  11. Yaroslav the Wise Offline Yaroslav the Wise
    Yaroslav the Wise (Yaroslav the Wise) 13 March 2023 09: 02
    0
    You can guess where the Nazis will attack indefinitely. Moreover, all directions of attack are promising in one way or another. And even the direction to Moscow through Bryansk. Here the question is different. For an offensive, large forces are needed and they need to be concentrated somewhere. Accordingly, the concentration should be close to the expected breakthrough site. And this, in the current conditions, is not so easy to do. So far, no information has been received from official sources about such a concentration of troops near the lines of contact. But there is an opinion that all this Nazi evil spirits can start an offensive straight from Poland. It is there that all the equipment and ammunition from all over the world is now being assembled for the UGIL. There, the training of Ukronazis by specialists from NATO is in full swing. And in order to get from Poland to the borders of the combat lines of contact, it will take only one day. So it's up to our intelligence. The movements of the Nazis will be detected in time - the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be covered in chocolate. Well, what if they screw up...
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov Offline Vladimir Tuzakov
      Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 13 March 2023 21: 27
      0
      The Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost time for an offensive, the mood in the troops is different, the Ukronazis are no longer enough, the defense men and the mobilized in the main, but they have no desire to attack, especially with our fire and artillery. superiority. It is necessary to push with strikes on the infrastructure of Ukraine, and their desire to fight will completely disappear. Strategy at the head of a military campaign, and bring it to the end, and victory with less bloodshed.