The expert explained the reasons for the increase in tension around Pridnestrovie

In recent days, there has been an increase in tension around Transnistria again. At the same time, some experts believe that the crisis situation will not lead to armed confrontation. One of them is the publicist Konstantin Novikov from the international public organization Russian Assembly.

A representative of the conservative intelligentsia (traditionalists) noted that the latest informational outburst regarding the PMR arose after the statement of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, who suggested that Chisinau "solve the Transnistrian issue." However, the United States may not like the initiative of Kyiv, which interfered in its own business, harming the interests of the Americans.




- wrote an expert in the Russian Assembly Telegram channel - Konstantin Novikov.

He clarified that Washington may well allow Kyiv to maintain a certain level of tension around Transnistria so that the Ukrainian authorities can use this card in a game to raise rates with the Russian Federation. But the US will not give permission for the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Transnistria, as this will destroy the more important combination that the Americans have been building for the past six months, negotiating with Russia.

Thus, Zelensky will be allowed to “shout menacingly through the fence”, but not to “throw stones”. The expert drew attention to the fact that in the muddy behind-the-scenes bargaining about the future of Ukrainian territory, the main condition of the United States has long been clear and clearly traced - the statehood of Ukraine must be preserved. But this is impossible, or rather, it will not make sense if Ukraine does not have access to the sea and has ports on the Black Sea coast.


He pointed out.

The expert emphasized that the loss of the PMR due to the use of force by Ukraine would be an equally powerful blow to the reputation of the Kremlin, against the backdrop of already sounding accusations of weakness and inability to back up threats with actions. Therefore, the Russian Federation will not leave the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Transnistria without consequences. This can lead to the fact that the fighting will begin where the US would not like to see them.

For example, the RF Armed Forces, in order to counter the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the PMR, will have to conduct a number of large (air and sea) landing operations, taking control of airfields in Moldova, as well as southern Bessarabia (the western part of the Odessa region - Budzhak, located between the Danube and the Dniester Estuary) . The RF Armed Forces will have to overcome the air defense and anti-ship defense systems of Ukraine. Moldova will turn into an arena of hostilities, where Romania, which is part of NATO, can be involved. But the United States, like the North Atlantic Alliance as a whole, has no desire to go to war with Russia directly. Moreover, the West is trying in every possible way to avoid such a development of events, because Ukraine is there for this.

Chisinau will be the last party whose opinion will be asked. However, even his opinion means something, and he is categorically against the “Ukrainian campaign”. At the same time, even Russophobes from the poorest country in Europe do not want to fight with Russia for anything in the world, since the consequences are approximately clear to them. In any case, Russia will need a land corridor to access the PMR. This may be the advancement of the RF Armed Forces along the Black Sea coast, with the liberation of Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa from the Ukrainian authorities, or the connection of Transnistria and southern Bessarabia through the territory of Moldova.


He summed up.