What can we expect from the second year of the NWO

A year ago, few could imagine what the future holds for all of us. And even those who foresaw the start of full-scale hostilities in Ukraine could hardly have imagined that they would take on such a protracted character. Nevertheless, we are all now on the threshold of the beginning of the second year of the NWO, and now practically no one has any doubt that this operation will last for more than one month. Therefore, it's time to draw some conclusions, and also try to make at least some kind of forecast about what awaits us all at the beginning of the second year of this bloody conflict.

As you know, any forecasts and "vanging" is a very thankless task, since such forecasts do not come true in 9 cases out of 10. Therefore, in this article we will try to use a scenario approach, which makes it possible to describe the future in terms of several scenarios. By tradition, we will analyze three such scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and a certain average (realistic).

Optimistic scenario

Over the past year, the number of jingoists in our country has noticeably decreased. Now there are no more people left who believe in the illusions about the capture of Kyiv in three days or the mass transfer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shaking with fear to the side of the RF Armed Forces. Even those who consider our army the strongest in the world and capable of single-handedly resisting not only Ukraine, but also China, the United States or the entire NATO bloc have noticeably decreased. However, this does not mean at all that our armed forces do not have a powerful combat potential capable of inflicting a crushing military defeat on the current enemy if used correctly.

Therefore, within the framework of an optimistic scenario, such an approach to the conduct of the NMD should be considered, which will allow us to achieve significant changes at the front, and at the same time on political arena. And there is only one such approach - a radical change in the entire appearance of the military operation, right down to its name. This has been repeatedly pointed out at various levels, and in the light of recent events, there is hope that literally within the next few days we will see positive developments in this direction.

As you know, by the end of the first year of the special operation in the Kremlin подготовили something special. On February 21, our president will deliver a message to the Federal Assembly, after which a large-scale rally-concert will be held at Luzhniki the next day. It is expected that the presidents of Belarus, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will even take part in these events, which once again hints at the announcement of some serious strategic decisions.

Some predict that one of these decisions will be to change the status of the NWO to a CTO (counter-terrorist operation) or even a domestic war. According to many, this decision is the only right step towards the implementation of the optimistic scenario. If Russia really wants to achieve victory over Ukraine and its Western masters, then this can be done only through large-scale mobilization of the military, economic and human resources. Victories similar to the one we are all so striving for have been achieved in the past only by using the full potential of our great fatherland. And whether we like it or not, but in order to implement an optimistic scenario, we cannot do without it now.

Pessimistic scenario

Otherwise, we can all expect the implementation of a pessimistic scenario that is unfolding before our eyes for the entire first year of the NWO. During the 12 months of the operation, Russia not only failed to achieve the stated goals of "demilitarization and denazification", but also received exactly the opposite effect. The number of Western weapons and equipment in Ukraine has grown many times over, now not only Ukraine, but also other neighbors of our country are striving for NATO, and Ukrainian Nazism is now the official state ideology, which is professed even by moderate citizens of this country in the past.

And it is very obvious that the longer this conflict continues, the more the situation with the supply of weapons to Ukraine and the growth of neo-Nazi sentiment in this country will worsen. Moreover, in case of an unfavorable development of events, the Kiev regime may attempt a new massive offensive, which may well be crowned with, if not strategic, then operational-tactical success. This can be critical not only from the point of view of the future of the inhabitants of the new regions of Russia, but also for the entire population of our homeland, because a defeat on the battlefield will inevitably be followed by a cascade of political and socio-economic upheavals.

The pessimistic scenario, among other things, provides for the current sluggish nature of the NWO course. It's no secret that a protracted military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the eternal dream of the Anglo-Saxons, which they have now realized. Every day on the battlefield, our country loses its best sons, and it will take decades to restore this gene pool. Not to mention the fact that as a result of hostilities, one of the largest industrial regions of the world (Donbass), which until recently was the locomotive of socio-economic development, was actually destroyed. And if there are still at least illusory hopes for the restoration of the industrial potential of Donbass, then if hostilities continue for another year or two, this probability will tend to zero.

Realistic or inertial scenario

Practice shows that among all options for the development of events, a certain “median” one is most often implemented. In our case, we can expect with high probability that in the near future the military situation on the battlefield and the political processes in Russia will develop according to an inertial scenario, which provides for the continuation of the current trend.

Now our troops are slowly but surely advancing near Artemovsk, and are also making attempts to attack in other directions, in particular near Ugledar. It is possible that one or two more will soon be added to these, for example, the northern one in the direction of the Sumy or Kharkiv region, or the southern one in the direction of Zaporozhye. This may lead to some operational success, but it is unlikely to significantly change the overall picture that has developed at the end of the first year of the JEE.

Under this scenario, it is also unlikely that we should expect changes in terms of changing the name or strategy for conducting ACS. Most likely, our General Staff will continue its course of methodical grinding and slowly squeezing the enemy out of occupied positions, and will also continue to use the tactics of pinpoint missile strikes on enemy infrastructure. It is possible that in the near future we will have another reshuffle in the military or political leadership, but even they will hardly be able to turn the tide of events and lead us to a decisive and quick victory. Therefore, Russia should prepare for the long second year of the NWO, which in the future may develop into a third, or even a fourth.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 19 February 2023 09: 13
    What can we expect from the second year of the NWO

    Third year! And then? Fourth year! Putin disposes of Russians, and all of Central Asia moves to Russia and receives citizenship. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are already using chemical weapons. Soon they will start using nuclear weapons. There are enough nuclear power plants in Ukraine to do the minimum.
  2. George1950 Offline George1950
    George1950 (Georgy1950) 19 February 2023 09: 32
    The first year brought almost nothing. Stomping on the spot, scurrying from side to side. Putin's indecision has been paying off for nine years now. Rather, it does not give any results. He had just begun to admit "some mistakes". Allegedly, they "interpreted the information" incorrectly.
    Well, we have what we have...
    1. July Offline July
      July (Peter) 20 February 2023 09: 24
      In general, everything is so, with the exception of Putin's indecision. When the structure of governing the country is transparent to many, then there will be no such definition. Putin is the head of state only nominally, and is only a kind of manager to regulate internal stability and balance. And as such, it has no direct levers of influence on events. And these levers are in the hands of corporations and industrial clans. Each of which has its own TK. on processes and allows itself certain influences. If you do not agree with this, bring another, working scheme that reflects reality and removes all questions.
    2. Materialist Offline Materialist
      Materialist (Michael) 21 February 2023 05: 15
      ...doesn't work

      just gives the result. sharply negative. the situation was driven into ... .
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 19 February 2023 09: 45
    Threat. The main thing will remain the same:
    Impunity and Irresponsibility of "effective managers" who fail everything and everything
    All the old people are still in power. They put on makeup and are buying up real estate not in NATO. and the Arabs.

    And the rest is just a consequence...
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 19 February 2023 10: 10
    What can we expect from the second year of the NWO - mobilization, bitterness and separate collusion
    1. Materialist Offline Materialist
      Materialist (Michael) 21 February 2023 05: 17
      followed by repetition under even worse conditions
  5. Ivan1971 Offline Ivan1971
    Ivan1971 (Ivan) 19 February 2023 10: 23
    The offensive, the captivity of the Nazis, the arrangements of the oligarchs, the release of the Nazis, the treat of tiramisu, the donation of iPhones, the counter-retreat, the daily shelling, the destruction of Donetsk, the BELGOROD REGION - it’s impossible in Kiev, because this is terrorism, weapons from NATO, but in the end the same end, so who wanted to give up the petrodollar - sticking a bottle in the anus like Muammar Gaddafi. This is SVO, agreements, a grain deal. We would like to really fight - we fought, but with such an attitude - in the end there will be a failure
  6. Vasya 225 Offline Vasya 225
    Vasya 225 (Vyacheslav) 19 February 2023 12: 43
    We climbed into such a swamp, from which you can get out only by the joint efforts of the whole country. And the country is completely decomposed and does not burn to breastfeed Vekselberg's eggs and Lukoil's grandmother. To solve with a blow, it seems, there are no forces. It was not in vain that Ivanov and Serdyukov worked on the army. There is no road without socio-political changes, and they also do not exist.
  7. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 19 February 2023 13: 04
    To date, all the actors in Ukraine have come to a standstill, no one will yield. Russia, to win, you need a strong political move related to Ukraine. Without a political move, all actions will be marking the Russian Federation in place, giving rise to NATO tightening and transferring the military conflict to the pre-nuclear level.
    In order to defend Russia's national interests and consolidate them, Russia needs to legislate that the entire territory of Ukraine, seized by the separatists with the help of NATO, is the property of Russia.
    Assigning the status of the territory of Ukraine, that this is the territory of Russia, will transfer the NMD into a counter-terrorist operation (CTO), i.e. All military actions will be carried out in accordance with the Law "On Counteracting Terrorism" dated March 06.03.2006, 35 N XNUMX-FZ, and this is already the legal basis for conducting military actions.
    All actions of the Russian Army, including conscripts, on the territory of Ukraine will comply with the Law of Russia.
    1. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
      Vox_Populi (vox populi) 19 February 2023 14: 57
      In order to defend the national interests of Russia and consolidate them, Russia needs to legislate that the entire territory of Ukraine, captured by the separatists with the help of NATO, is the property of Russia

      You have already repeated this proposal, and many times! In addition to the simple consideration that practically no one recognizes such a decision, I recall a phrase from a joke that they beat not on the passport, but on the face ...
      1. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
        vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 21 February 2023 00: 23
        Are you interested in the recognition of Russia's enemies? Who are you? In 1991, all the enemies recognized as legitimate the coup d'etat in the USSR, his assassination and recognized all the small-town princes, sultans, khans. Here is the result when they blew up.
        In 2014, in Spain, there was an attempt by the inhabitants of Catalonia to leave Spain and create their own independent state. All the instigators were put on trial, imprisoned, the people fled to other countries. Catalonia is already 5 centuries old and this is not a national territory in the USSR, which did not exist at all until 1917. The Balts openly declare, we expelled the Russians, we conquered, NATO helped us, i.e. they occupied Russian lands. All former republics must be considered as temporarily occupied territories with the help of NATO, and traitors are at their head.
  8. Jstas Offline Jstas
    Jstas (jstas) 19 February 2023 13: 31
    They were preparing to fight with the Ukrainian army, but got "much more valuable fur-green Shanghai tigers" -NATO. And with all the inconveniences of NATO, and very successfully, the private army of Russia is beating. The 5th column crawled out and fled to Israel.
    ... Purely theoretically, does Israel have anything to offer Moscow, at least in terms of negotiations?
    - Israel can help not to destroy Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk and other cities with the presence of entrepreneurs with Jewish roots. Agree on guarantees for entrepreneurs from these cities that Russia accepts their right to own these assets after their release. In return, they should contribute to the surrender of these territories without a fight ...
    Same result.
  9. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 19 February 2023 14: 53
    Therefore, Russia should prepare for the long second year of the NWO, which in the future may develop into the third, or even the fourth.

    Let's just say, so-so prospects ...
  10. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 19 February 2023 18: 01
    Given the way the fighting is going on, next year our troops will travel another 20 kilometers. And we'll see, maybe our generals will still show military leadership talents. and still the Kremlin would not interfere with calls for solid humanism in relation to his brothers and our non-brothers.
  11. hlp5118 Offline hlp5118
    hlp5118 (hlp) 19 February 2023 18: 30
    It's just ..... Fog in the head of the leadership. Either "demilitarization of Ukraine", or "protection of the DNR and LNR". These are completely different tasks and goals. And these are unjustified losses. "We are responsible for everything," the leaders of the United Russia said, but only a few out of 2.5 million members went to the front. Soap bubble. And as always, the country will be saved by ordinary people, not favored by the authorities. A mass offensive with all forces for a quick exit to the borders of the regions and the transition to a deep defense and a tough response. The peoples enter the world, not endless nightmares.
  12. Spasatel Offline Spasatel
    Spasatel 19 February 2023 21: 07
    Our government, all these Medvedevs, Volodins and Matvienkas, Millers, Sechins and Usmanovs, Rotenbergs, Timchenkos and other members of the unique Ozero cooperative, of course, together with the Tsar of All Russia, magnificent and infallible, a great strategist and sovereign ruler of the souls and wallets of Russian citizens , are not able to stop this bloody thriller, which they themselves organized over the thirty years of their "galley" work in the field of Russian gas and oil splendor, neither in the second year, nor in the third, even in the fifth or tenth. What they have done cannot be corrected by the sudden desire of the king when it smells of fried food. This will take years.
    And another power!
  13. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 20 February 2023 01: 26
    Today it finally happened - FAB500 took the stage. Let's hope that in the new annual period, the SVO will enter into the business of the Aerospace Forces. There are very large stocks of free-fall bombs. We will not be able to use these stocks in a conflict with NATO. Now is the perfect time to move the stockpile of bombs onto the heads of the enemy.

    It is possible that part of it will be possible to equip it with various upgrades, wings and all kinds of high-precision nozzles, but for the most part the task is purely logistical - loading bombs, flying, landing.

    It may not always be accurate to bomb from a height above the capabilities of MANPADS, but what experience will there be in the VKS. Now experience in the Aerospace Forces comes in a small stream, Su-25 attack aircraft, sometimes something comes across to fighters, helicopters are still working (they would shoot something like that and forget anti-tank, 305 of course a cool product, but unsuitable for a war against NATO).

    The RIA report did not say that the aircraft dropped 500 hundred. Tu-22 doesn’t seem to carry these or does it carry it all the same? Su-34? Even if 250 will be massively used, this is already a big deal, it will change the course of hostilities.

    The beginning of the air campaign is the most anticipated event. NATO's answer will be fighter jets. Well, we'll see how it goes.
  14. Kuziming Offline Kuziming
    Kuziming (Alexey Kuzmin) 20 February 2023 07: 33
    What is an optimistic scenario?
    Announce mass mobilization and a concert of pop artists.
    At the same time, thieves with children in Israel and the United States remain in power.
    A mass mobilization will be announced, but a mass exodus from mobilization will begin. The economy will be covered with a copper basin, the supply of troops will deteriorate, there will be a military defeat.
    Prigozhin and Strelkov will be appointed as scapegoats, while the same commodity oligarchs will continue to sell Russia's mineral resources in a different format.
  15. Alexbf109 Offline Alexbf109
    Alexbf109 (Alexey) 20 February 2023 14: 39
    There are several real scenarios:
    1. War to victory, with mobilization, war economy and the tension of all the resources of the people. (But I can’t quite believe that our modern society is like this! Plus, this is also mobilization and significant losses!)
    2. "Agreement", in the positions that we have now! This is what many people in power now hope. (But why is the United States, the clown Ze, and the rest?! Why is it a pity for them to throw simple dill on minced meat? In addition, this option is only possible when Ukrostan loses the ability and strength to resist. And then, in order to save his Bandera "brainchild", The United States will try to conclude this "peace". But only to strengthen and rearm the Bandera people! It will not be peace, but a truce! In a few years everything will happen again. Only in even worse conditions for Russia. And with even more bloodshed!)
    3. Military defeat, with the massacre of Russians by Bandera in the Donbass, Crimea! (After this, it will really become "ashamed to be Russian"! In addition, NOTHING WILL END! I doubt very much that the United States will let go just like that, such a "wounded animal." I am sure that a Civil War will be provoked, because all the outskirts and many regions they will feel that "Moscow has completely blown away", and there will be plenty of local leaders who want "independence" there! And they will certainly be supported by the "collective West", weapons, money, etc.)
    4. Nuclear strike on all communications in the west of Banderostan! With the overlap of all channels for the supply of weapons! (In this case, it will take a few more months to finish off the "VSU" gangs. It is also necessary to have proper communication with the United States, so that the "Western world" would get fucked up, "put it in their pants", but at the same time draw the right conclusions ! "Russia is not a monster, but it will use all available weapons to protect its people and territory! And it will not allow NATO bases to approach its borders")
    That's it, I have no more real options! If you have, please add!
    1. Nelton Offline Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 20 February 2023 15: 02
      Quote: Alexbf109
      1. War to victory, with mobilization, war economy and the tension of all the resources of the people.

      I strongly doubt that we will pull out against the whole of NATO.
      But let's blow up the rear.
      The most obvious analogue is the July offensive of 1917, which was the beginning of the end of the interim government.

      Quote: Alexbf109
      4. Nuclear strike

      With a high probability - we will get a "preemptive" nuclear strike on Russia.

      3. Military defeat, ... the outskirts and many regions will feel that "Moscow has completely blown away", and there are plenty of local leaders who want "independence" there!

      Yes it is. "Akella missed" - here you are ... there really are such risks.

      2. "Agreement", in the positions that we have now! This is what many people in power now hope. (But what is the USA, the clown Ze, and the rest for?!

      The United States will arrange such a deal.
      They traditionally bet on economics rather than direct confrontation.
      This does not suit the broad strata of Ukraine. (Zelensky is only their frontman).
      So far not satisfied.

      this option is possible only when Ukrostan loses the ability and strength to resist

      Now there, most likely, in anticipation that the roads will dry out - and the leopards will demolish both Wagner and the RF Armed Forces.
      If they are met, as Rokossovsky met the panthers in 1943, then there is a possibility that enthusiasm will be replaced by disappointment, and they will agree to a temporary ceasefire.
      well, or they won’t, and mutual shelling through the lines of continuous echeloned defense of both sides will continue.

      In a few years, everything will happen again. Only in even worse conditions for Russia.

      well, from what.
      Global trends - Asia is growing, the West is shrinking.
      Regional - in Ukraine, the population is declining and aging much faster than in the Russian Federation.
      In the Russian Federation, industry has now received a powerful impetus to the development of deeply localized production.
      1. Alexbf109 Offline Alexbf109
        Alexbf109 (Alexey) 20 February 2023 16: 45
        And what do you propose? Or which of my options is closer to the goal?
        1. Nelton Offline Nelton
          Nelton (Oleg) 22 February 2023 11: 05
          Quote: Alexbf109
          which of my options is closer to the goal?


          "Agreement", in the positions that we have now!

          A dead end - it's a dead end, because other options are purely theoretical.

          Maybe someone in their old age (and there are no children of grandchildren) is not afraid to die, and they really want the United States to "weakly" check. (But it would be better if you went to the NWO as a volunteer, since it’s not scary to die) Maybe they will lead. And if not?
          The probability that they will respond to the swinging and use of nuclear weapons with a preventive salvo - well, I estimate at ~ 60-70%. Yes, even if only 10%, the product (risk) x (damage) is orders of magnitude higher than the entire negative of option 2.

          Why do we need tactical nuclear weapons at all then?
          same simple answer.
          When hostilities are transferred to the territory of the old regions of the Russian Federation (which may be the result of the complete defeat of conventional troops), the Russian Federation simply does not have any other options. In this case, the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the eyes of the whole world looks justified.
  16. Anrey Offline Anrey
    Anrey (Andrey) 23 February 2023 21: 20
    I suppose that if we had completed the operation in a short time, we would have received such "partisanism" that it would not have seemed small. There would not be enough opportunities and means to block everything and everyone, and the losses would be orders of magnitude greater. L / s APU is intact! Weapons and BC in bulk! We have support and motivation! Therefore, peppy reports about the victory, it seems to me, would quickly come to naught. The fact that the command changed the plan is optimal. This is an assumption, nothing more.