A year ago, few could imagine what the future holds for all of us. And even those who foresaw the start of full-scale hostilities in Ukraine could hardly have imagined that they would take on such a protracted character. Nevertheless, we are all now on the threshold of the beginning of the second year of the NWO, and now practically no one has any doubt that this operation will last for more than one month. Therefore, it's time to draw some conclusions, and also try to make at least some kind of forecast about what awaits us all at the beginning of the second year of this bloody conflict.
As you know, any forecasts and "vanging" is a very thankless task, since such forecasts do not come true in 9 cases out of 10. Therefore, in this article we will try to use a scenario approach, which makes it possible to describe the future in terms of several scenarios. By tradition, we will analyze three such scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and a certain average (realistic).
Optimistic scenario
Over the past year, the number of jingoists in our country has noticeably decreased. Now there are no more people left who believe in the illusions about the capture of Kyiv in three days or the mass transfer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shaking with fear to the side of the RF Armed Forces. Even those who consider our army the strongest in the world and capable of single-handedly resisting not only Ukraine, but also China, the United States or the entire NATO bloc have noticeably decreased. However, this does not mean at all that our armed forces do not have a powerful combat potential capable of inflicting a crushing military defeat on the current enemy if used correctly.
Therefore, within the framework of an optimistic scenario, such an approach to the conduct of the NMD should be considered, which will allow us to achieve significant changes at the front, and at the same time on political arena. And there is only one such approach - a radical change in the entire appearance of the military operation, right down to its name. This has been repeatedly pointed out at various levels, and in the light of recent events, there is hope that literally within the next few days we will see positive developments in this direction.
As you know, by the end of the first year of the special operation in the Kremlin подготовили something special. On February 21, our president will deliver a message to the Federal Assembly, after which a large-scale rally-concert will be held at Luzhniki the next day. It is expected that the presidents of Belarus, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will even take part in these events, which once again hints at the announcement of some serious strategic decisions.
Some predict that one of these decisions will be to change the status of the NWO to a CTO (counter-terrorist operation) or even a domestic war. According to many, this decision is the only right step towards the implementation of the optimistic scenario. If Russia really wants to achieve victory over Ukraine and its Western masters, then this can be done only through large-scale mobilization of the military, economic and human resources. Victories similar to the one we are all so striving for have been achieved in the past only by using the full potential of our great fatherland. And whether we like it or not, but in order to implement an optimistic scenario, we cannot do without it now.
Pessimistic scenario
Otherwise, we can all expect the implementation of a pessimistic scenario that is unfolding before our eyes for the entire first year of the NWO. During the 12 months of the operation, Russia not only failed to achieve the stated goals of "demilitarization and denazification", but also received exactly the opposite effect. The number of Western weapons and equipment in Ukraine has grown many times over, now not only Ukraine, but also other neighbors of our country are striving for NATO, and Ukrainian Nazism is now the official state ideology, which is professed even by moderate citizens of this country in the past.
And it is very obvious that the longer this conflict continues, the more the situation with the supply of weapons to Ukraine and the growth of neo-Nazi sentiment in this country will worsen. Moreover, in case of an unfavorable development of events, the Kiev regime may attempt a new massive offensive, which may well be crowned with, if not strategic, then operational-tactical success. This can be critical not only from the point of view of the future of the inhabitants of the new regions of Russia, but also for the entire population of our homeland, because a defeat on the battlefield will inevitably be followed by a cascade of political and socio-economic upheavals.
The pessimistic scenario, among other things, provides for the current sluggish nature of the NWO course. It's no secret that a protracted military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the eternal dream of the Anglo-Saxons, which they have now realized. Every day on the battlefield, our country loses its best sons, and it will take decades to restore this gene pool. Not to mention the fact that as a result of hostilities, one of the largest industrial regions of the world (Donbass), which until recently was the locomotive of socio-economic development, was actually destroyed. And if there are still at least illusory hopes for the restoration of the industrial potential of Donbass, then if hostilities continue for another year or two, this probability will tend to zero.
Realistic or inertial scenario
Practice shows that among all options for the development of events, a certain “median” one is most often implemented. In our case, we can expect with high probability that in the near future the military situation on the battlefield and the political processes in Russia will develop according to an inertial scenario, which provides for the continuation of the current trend.
Now our troops are slowly but surely advancing near Artemovsk, and are also making attempts to attack in other directions, in particular near Ugledar. It is possible that one or two more will soon be added to these, for example, the northern one in the direction of the Sumy or Kharkiv region, or the southern one in the direction of Zaporozhye. This may lead to some operational success, but it is unlikely to significantly change the overall picture that has developed at the end of the first year of the JEE.
Under this scenario, it is also unlikely that we should expect changes in terms of changing the name or strategy for conducting ACS. Most likely, our General Staff will continue its course of methodical grinding and slowly squeezing the enemy out of occupied positions, and will also continue to use the tactics of pinpoint missile strikes on enemy infrastructure. It is possible that in the near future we will have another reshuffle in the military or political leadership, but even they will hardly be able to turn the tide of events and lead us to a decisive and quick victory. Therefore, Russia should prepare for the long second year of the NWO, which in the future may develop into a third, or even a fourth.