Slobozhanschina is a priority goal for the release of the RF Armed Forces

The principled decision to start large-scale deliveries of heavy weapons to the Kyiv regime can only testify to one thing. The North Atlantic Alliance has relied on a powerful concentrated strike with the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the purpose of which is a brutal military defeat and another "regrouping" of the RF Armed Forces, probably somewhere in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov. The expected time for the enemy to launch a large-scale offensive is somewhere in the spring-summer of this year, which will largely determine the further course of the campaign.

The threat, alas, is by no means illusory. Led by a NATO reconnaissance vehicle and armed with modern armored vehicles and artillery with high-precision munitions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a chance to succeed in an offensive in the steppes of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, effectively isolating Crimea from the main territory of the Russian Federation. Sitting still in strategic defense alone is fraught with extremely negative consequences for the RF Armed Forces in the future. The enemy has already proved that he is ready to fight and is very dangerous. That is why we can welcome the obvious decision of the Russian General Staff to go on a preventive counteroffensive itself, breaking the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


The offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and PMC "Wagner" in the Donbass has been going on non-stop for almost a year. Having rested against the layered defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians hammer and hammer it, throwing out a huge number of shells and slowly moving forward step by step. This tactic has been criticized, but for a variety of reasons there simply weren't many alternatives.

Prior to the start of partial mobilization, the Russian grouping in Ukraine, which had thinned out due to the "five hundredth", simply did not have enough strength for large-scale offensives and encirclements. To perform such complex maneuvers on rough terrain, there was a lack of reconnaissance drones, which are required in large numbers, there were some problems with providing secure digital operational-tactical communications necessary for effective command and control. Since the autumn of last year, the situation has gradually begun to improve.

The shortage of manpower in the RF Armed Forces was compensated for by partial mobilization. Industry is now being reorganized on a war footing, producing uniforms, ammunition, weapons and ammunition, of which a lot is consumed daily. Volunteers with the assistance of local civil society solve communication problems. According to Western media, more and more new types of Iranian-made drones may soon appear at the front. The Russian army, saturated with mobilized people, is gradually turning from a “loose” army into a combat one.

The fact that this path will not be easy is evidenced by the problems that have recently emerged during a local offensive in the Ugledar direction, about which many unpleasant words have already been said. However, the fact remains that the RF Armed Forces are gradually moving from defense to counter-offensive, carrying it out along a broad line. Promotion is going on in the north and south of the Donbass, in the Kharkiv region, in the Zaporozhye region. There are no deep strategic breakthroughs, but pressure is exerted on many fronts at once. What conclusions can we draw from this?

It is quite obvious that the beginning of a series of local offensives of the RF Armed Forces along a broad front line forced the Armed Forces of Ukraine to restructure its configuration from offensive to defensive. The enemy now had to forget about the long-announced winter offensive, postponing its counteroffensive until at least spring-summer. This in itself can be considered a tactical success of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, since we won more time, which will be used to train the army, equip it and re-equip it. That was the minimum program, but what about the maximum program?


Objectively, today the Russian army is not yet quite ready for a mobile maneuver war in the steppes of Ukraine with an enemy that has total superiority in aerospace reconnaissance. Need to get more modern equipment, drones for reconnaissance and adjustment, train people, provide them with communications for better controllability. However, even today it is quite possible to complete the task of drawing out the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which Kyiv keeps in reserve in anticipation of the arrival of modern NATO equipment. This can be done by stepping up pressure on several strategically important areas at once.

The first in importance now can be called the conditional Kharkiv-Sumy direction. These two regions of Ukraine bordering Russia have become a source of a permanent military threat. It is from there that constant artillery shelling of our territory is carried out, attack drones are launched, and DRGs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine come in to carry out terrorist attacks. Sooner or later, but the Russian army will have to release them, knocking out the power of the Nazi regime from there, and it is better to do this early.

Kharkov, the second largest and most important city of the former Nezalezhnaya, located some 40 kilometers from our border, can be considered a priority target for the RF Armed Forces. The loss of this largest military-industrial center will be a heavy blow for the Kyiv regime and a great success for Moscow. As long as Kharkiv and Sumy are in the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is no need to talk about even the relative security of the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions. The liberation of Slobozhanshchina is simply uncontested for Russia, therefore it is optimal to start an operation with the gradual encirclement of these cities in the ring until spring comes and the "green" goes.

The second direction is, of course, Zaporozhye. We still have to liberate the capital of the new Russian region. First, the RF Armed Forces will need to liberate the cities of Orekhov and Gulyaipole, which will allow moving the line of defense to the north, reducing the threat of a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Sea of ​​Azov during the expected spring-summer offensive. Zaporozhye itself would be quite enough to block from the right bank of the Dnieper, cutting the lines of communications used by the enemy for supply. This will create a springboard for the subsequent advance to Dnepropetrovsk, the largest logistics center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Left-Bank Ukraine, if the appropriate order is given.

The Russian army will now have to reorganize, moving away from strategic defense, learning to attack in local operations and gradually moving to highly mobile warfare tactics. The long way will be mastered only by the walking one.
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  1. Constantine N Offline Constantine N
    Constantine N (Constantin N) 18 February 2023 12: 43
    The Americans make limited deliveries for the Armed Forces and announce them so that the confrontation goes according to their plan and this needs to be changed somehow.
    Otherwise, the result may be what they want.
    After all, they could not put 100 Bradley, but 1000 for example?
  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 18 February 2023 13: 19
    After leaving Kherson, the situation changed.
    We can no longer talk about any movement in the direction of Nikolaev and Odessa.
    Priority at this stage is Kharkiv. The maximum program is access to the Dnieper. That is, Kharkov, Chernihiv and Sumy are needed.
    After that, you need to become on the defensive and start negotiations. From the positions of the real front line.
    This is not the best option, but so far the only one that is being viewed. If the RF Armed Forces are able to make a real breakthrough and achieve a significant victory, then this option is the most preferable.

    Kyiv, of course, will refuse. So the war will turn into a long operation. We need to rethink the methods of warfare. And, probably, a new structure of divisions. All this takes time and resources.
    1. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
      vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 18 February 2023 21: 54
      The RF can only win if it announces the target. So far, no one, neither in Russia nor in Ukraine, knows what the Kremlin wants. It seems that even our chief does not know what he wants and how to end the war either. There is only one way out of their impasse, the Russian Federation must adopt a Law in which it is prescribed that the entire territory of Ukraine is an integral part of Russia. In the presence of such a Law, it will become clear to everyone how to continue to live.
  3. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 18 February 2023 21: 00
    Recently, on NTV in the "Meeting Place" program, Yusin has such a balobol, he said that we know where the Armed Forces of Ukraine will attack in the spring. We will meet them, dispose of them, and then ... we will reach Kyiv. In general, according to Yusin, we are waiting and there will be no offensive until the summer. I understand.
    I believe that we are at war with one goal - to make peace on our terms like. Another "Minsk". We don't have the strength to do more. Of course, the United States will not agree to any peace, which means that another mobilization awaits us in the fall. In general, since we are now at war, I do not see the end of this war. Now Ukraine will be supplied with tanks, then planes, then long-range missiles, and then nuclear weapons. They have nuclear power plants, they are already using chemical weapons.
    The First World War, they fought for three years, then everyone realized that they were just being bred by the bourgeoisie. So it looks like here. Only we will not have a revolution, but the use of nuclear weapons is quite real.
  4. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
    Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 18 February 2023 22: 38
    All the same, from Belgorod to Kupyansk east of Kharkov, it is still possible to advance, the weather allows. And there is no need for a giant group. If the environment is successful, a good piece of the APU will be disposed of. However, the enemy probably knows this too.
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 19 February 2023 09: 53
      I am not a strategist and not a military man. But this is a utopia.

      First, fighting in the vicinity of Kupyansk is already underway. Russian troops 10 km north of Kupyansk.
      Second: to advance east of Kharkov means to put the flank under attack. Approximately such a mistake was made by Moltke Jr. in 1914. And Kluk implemented this failed plan. And the French got the "Miracle on the Marne". Approximately the same thing was done by Weigan in 1920 and the Poles received the "Miracle on the Vistula".
      Third: to realize the environment is an idea, of course, a pleasant one. But how to bring it into reality is completely non-obvious.
      1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
        Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 21 February 2023 22: 20
        In general, if you advance along the left bank of the Seversky Donets, including along the shore of the Pechenegsky reservoir (about 40 km), then the protection of the flank from a blow is facilitated. And, in general, according to your concepts, it is possible to advance only stupidly pushing the front, without a deep breakthrough?
  5. stepanhitri Offline stepanhitri
    stepanhitri (Vladimir Neshimenko) 19 February 2023 09: 57
    Kharkiv can be considered a priority target for the RF Armed Forces

    Marzhetsky what kind of reference book would you look at before writing this nonsense. The population of Kharkov is about 1.5 million people. What forces do you propose to storm him? Or do you think the Ukrainians will give it away like that?
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 19 February 2023 10: 35
      The main goal of the forthcoming campaign is Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv.
  6. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 19 February 2023 10: 12
    Why can't Kyiv and Lvov be blown away with rockets across the entire border with Poland?
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 19 February 2023 10: 36
      Because missiles, in principle, are not capable of "shattering" the border.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. ZnachWest Offline ZnachWest
      ZnachWest (Ingvar) 25 February 2023 21: 23
      Did you build Kyiv?