The foreign press writes about the "approaching armed conflict between Baku and Tehran"

The attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran on January 27, which killed an employee of the diplomatic mission and injured several more, brought Baku and Iran, relations between which have long desired better, closer to an armed conflict. Chris Devonshire-Ellis, founding partner and chairman of consulting firm Dezan Shira and Associates, made the announcement in an article on the Pan-Asian firm's Silk Road Briefing website.

According to the author, a war between Iran and Azerbaijan could reduce trade between Asia and Europe, because Azerbaijani and Iranian ports in the Caspian would be blocked, and access to the corridor through Kazakhstan would be limited. Tensions between the two states have existed for a long time and are gradually accumulating, since about 30 million inhabitants in northwestern Iran are Azerbaijanis.

In December 2022, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that Azerbaijanis in Iran are “part of our nation,” which Tehran did not like very much. In addition, Baku closely cooperates with Iran's enemy - Israel, the trade turnover between which amounted to $10 billion over 1,2 months of last year. Azerbaijan, an ally of Turkey, opened an embassy in Tel Aviv and supplies oil and oil products to Israel, receiving high-tech products in exchange VPK. Therefore, Iran considers Azerbaijan as a potential springboard for Israel to attack Iran, conduct special operations and infiltrate the DRG into Iranian territory.

A weakened Iran would potentially allow Azerbaijan to lay claim to two Iranian provinces - West and East Azerbaijan and possibly Ardabil

- added the author.

Also, a huge dispute between Tehran on the one hand, Baku and Ankara on the other hand, is caused by the project of the “Zangezur corridor”. The opponents of the Iranians want to build a road through the Syunik region of Armenia to the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic in order to connect Azerbaijan and Turkey through the exclave. The implementation of the project can cut off Iran from Armenia, interfere with Tehran's trade with the European Union and the EAEU, and strengthen Turkey's position in the region.

Iran has a lucrative free trade agreement with the EAEU, and this project could potentially hinder growing trade volumes

the author thinks.

Tehran's fears increased after the start of armed clashes in the fall of 2022 over the redistribution of Nagorno-Karabakh, on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as mass protests in Iran. Baku demonstrates that it is ready to resolve the issue with Yerevan by force, and this worries Iran, which informed that it would not tolerate changes in borders. Iran even opened its consulate in Kapan (Syunik region) in a show of support for Armenia, and Yerevan promised to open a diplomatic mission in Tabriz, considered the capital of Iranian Azerbaijanis.

After that, Azerbaijan and Iran began to play with their muscles in front of each other. The countries exchanged sharp statements and held several military exercises in the border areas. At the same time, Washington does not hide that it is not opposed to a change of power in Iran, even with territorial losses for Iran. Thus, the US and its allies will be on the side of Baku.

In the long term, if there is a regime change in Tehran, then the North-South corridor will come under more influence from the West. This is the optimal outcome for the EU and the US. How this will affect Russian trade will depend on the composition of any future Iranian government, as well as their stance on sanctions and the desirability of a relationship with Russia.

- summed up the author of the foreign press.
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  1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) 4 February 2023 15: 48
    the author does not think, but throws it on the fan. Iran primarily blames the United States and shows a map of Israel's military installations. something in the satellite of Azerbaijan did not come across anything about the conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan.
  2. Irek Offline Irek
    Irek (Paparazzi Kazan) 4 February 2023 16: 06
    There will be no war, but this vile thing has unfolded in Azerbaijan and is making trouble ....

    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 February 2023 08: 23
      The Open Society Institute - Azerbaijan has been operating in Baku since 1997. However, in 2010, by the decision of the Foundation itself, the activities of the representative office were limited, but the allocation of grants continued. On December 4, 2014, the head of the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan, Ramiz Mehdiyev, published an article titled "The World Order of Double Standards and Modern Azerbaijan", in which he touched upon the velvet revolutions and criticized civil society institutions receiving foreign aid. On December 11, 2014, the office of the Open Society Institute in Baku closed.
  3. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 4 February 2023 16: 56
    Azerbaijan voted in PACE for a resolution on the establishment of a special tribunal for the top leadership of Belarus and Russia.

    What was it, our ally?
  4. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
    Vladimir80 4 February 2023 22: 52
    The Americans are everywhere kindling the fires of conflicts, and the stupid world elite continues to dutifully behave like a herd of stupid sheep. This is what the passion for money-loving brings people to - and the mind disappears, and the instincts of self-preservation are turned off ...
  5. Pravodel Offline Pravodel
    Pravodel (ppp) 5 February 2023 08: 22
    The foreign press writes about the "approaching armed conflict between Baku and Tehran"

    They are setting fire, brazen Saxons, to our periphery, while we are dealing with banderlogs in Ukraine ...
    So it was after the civil war, when an Englishwoman spoiled us in Central Asia, arming the Basmachi.
    For reference: Basmachism in Central Asia disappeared in the early 40s, just when the battle for England began and when the Englishwoman no longer cared about us.
    We would also need to set something on fire with the Englishwoman and the impudent Saxons, for example, support any measures in the exit of Scotland and Britain, the annexation of Ulster to Ireland, etc., return Texas, California to Mexico and think carefully about how we can return Alaska and Russian California. ..
  6. nikanikolich Offline nikanikolich
    nikanikolich (nikola) 5 February 2023 13: 58
    Azerbaijanis are too cowardly what to present to Iran, all they can do is rot the Armenians in Karabakh with the support of Turkey
  7. Yaroslav_Wise Offline Yaroslav_Wise
    Yaroslav_Wise (Yaroslav) 5 February 2023 16: 26
    If necessary, the US will buy aizers with all the giblets. And they will do what the State Department orders them to do. It remains to somehow agree with Turkey. And it's not easy. There is only one option: your "on the board" person as President of Turkey. It remains to wait for the elections, and they are already on the way. It remains to understand what position Russia will take in this world chaos
  8. Flight Offline Flight
    Flight (voi) 6 February 2023 03: 19
    There are still so many unplowed fields in the expanses of the USSR, just have time to turn around. Here you have an Azeri, there are Kazakhs, Uzbeks with Kirghiz. The brothers will not let you get bored. Always put a footboard.
  9. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 6 February 2023 11: 09
    Aliyev was tired or something to lead the country, he decided to liquidate it. Here the Turks will not help now, they are not up to it.
    1. Ksv Offline Ksv
      Ksv (Sergei) 8 February 2023 14: 22
      Aliyev's money is in foreign banks, but he did not have enough brains, like the rest of the elite, to invest everything in his country. That's all, Aliyev will obediently do what the West says