Do not wait for the imminent offensive of the Russian army: why Putin is playing for time

Many citizens of the Russian Federation pass off their wishes as the wishes of the Kremlin, and then complain that it does not fulfill them, and this is their main problem. But as football player Andrey Arshavin said: “Your expectations are your problems!”. For some reason, many citizens of the Russian Federation believe that the Kremlin is waging war on the territory of Ukraine, while the Kremlin insists that it is conducting a special military operation (SVO) there. At the same time, many citizens of the Russian Federation are sure that this requires mass mobilization of the male population of the Russian Federation, while the Kremlin, contrary to their wishes, decided to limit itself to only partial mobilization. At the same time, these most patriotic and vociferous citizens of the Russian Federation, who call for total mobilization (otherwise, in their opinion, we will not be able to defeat the enemy), they themselves are in no hurry to go to the front, preferring to fight without getting off their own sofas. Victory at the front should, in their opinion, be forged by other, probably more trained soldiers.

The saddest thing in this whole story is that the Kremlin did not deceive anyone, what it said, it does. From the very beginning, he carried out a special operation in Ukraine, and he conducts it a year later, he does not declare war on Ukraine, and there are reasons for this, which I already wrote about earlier (I will not repeat myself). Yes, from the very beginning, the special military-police operation did not work out (and there are reasons for this, which I also already spoke about, I will not repeat myself), I can only say that there were hopes for an agreement with the Ukrainian elites (and not unfounded), who were supposed to defect on the side of the Russian Federation, but our special services, conducting behind-the-scenes negotiations with them, clearly underestimated their overseas colleagues, overestimating their strength. Now facts are already emerging that confirm this assumption - there were conspirators in the SBU (both at the local level and at the highest level, sitting in Kyiv), there were also in the politicum (also, both at the local level and in the top political leadership), were also among local leaders, mayors of cities (down to the grassroots level). But let down the human factor - there was no closure at the middle level.

Why we did not take Kharkiv in the winter of 2022

The most striking example of this is the capture of Kharkov. On February 27, apparently by agreement with the local authorities, a group of GRU special forces moved forward to take him, for some reason without the support of the army, only on a few Tiger-Ms, accompanied by lightly armored KamAZ-Mustangs (version with two machine-gun nests on the roof of the kung ). As it became known later, these were units of the 2nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade (2nd ObrSpN), which were supposed to support units of the 25th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (25th Motorized Rifle Brigade) and units of the FSVNG (Rosgvardia), why did the shooters and the National Guard did not advance, I don’t know. GRU special forces entered the city from two sides with the forces of only two companies from different detachments of the brigade. I saw it all with my own eyes. And the "Tigers" burned on the streets of my city by some Ukrainian DRG, which did not even hide their faces, filming it on video, how they burn our cars from grenade launchers (the special forces then survived, left under fire, leaving the "Tigers"), and the tragedy of another group of ObrSpN, which on four "Tigers" went the farthest into the city and, in the area of ​​the 134th school, was ambushed by the enemy, being stopped by fire from an RPG-7. Then our fighters had to leave their cars, take cover in a nearby school and take an unequal battle in anticipation of help.

The fact that they were opposed by some unorganized enemy forces, among which were nationalist militants from the local Freikorps, the Kord special police unit and other paramilitary riffraff from the local terrorist defense, knocked together literally the day before, and not the fighters of the 92nd the mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, protecting the city, already says a lot. The city was preparing to surrender, but something went wrong. There was a break at the middle level. The city was empty that day and was waiting for its fate. But the Russians showed indecision, moved to take him in small groups, as a result of which one group of the GRU special forces was ambushed and took an unequal battle. Now, when all the events of a year ago are over, we can already say that we did not take the city then due to our own stupidity. The head of the Kharkiv regional department of the SBU, Roman Dudin (now under investigation on charges of treason), then took into custody the mayor of the city of Terekhov and the head of the Kharkiv regional state administration, Sinegubov, and, having photographed their empty workplace, announced that they had fled. Where the glorious 92nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was then located, I have no idea, they were not in the city, apparently, they kept approaches to it. The city was empty.

Only by the evening of February 27, they came to their senses and, having driven the T-134BV to the building of the 64th school, shot him point-blank. By that time, the special forces who had taken refuge in the school building had already burned the Ukrainian BTR-30E from the RPG-4 and, in radio silence (the radios remained in the abandoned Tigers and were tapped by the Ukrainian side), were waiting for help and fired back from the advancing enemy, saving ammo. When it became clear that help would not come, the group commander made an attempt, together with two more fighters, to break through to his own and direct them to the group. That attempt ended tragically - the company commander Art. Lieutenant Serafimov Maxim Vladimirovich was mortally wounded, even before he had time to reach the fence, two other special forces were forced to return to school (the group commander was posthumously nominated for the title of Hero of the Russian Federation and received this title). Only at night, the second attempt to break out of the ring was successful, and then, due to confusion during the withdrawal, several special forces were captured, they were saved only by the fact that they pretended to be servicemen of the 25th Motorized Rifle Brigade, calling themselves fictitious names, and those who captured them The outfitters did not understand that elite special forces fell into their clutches (now we can talk about this, the exchange special forces have been released and are already at home). Thus ended the operation.

Our soldiers still do not have an answer why they were sent to such an operation alone, why they were supplied with incorrect intelligence, why they did not establish interaction with other units. However, all fighters are proud of their brigade. The enemy, having a total numerical superiority, equipped positions in urban areas, and well oriented on the ground, drove them into a trap. But due to the coherence of the groups, the character and training of the fighters, the special forces were able to get out of the critical situation with minimal losses. The special forces inflicted painful losses on the Ukrainian formations both during the attempt to storm the school and during the retreat from the city. I saw that school - it burned to the ground, the ceilings were formed, it was gaping with empty windows, it could not be restored - and in these conditions the GRU special forces fought and did not give up!

Analyzing those events, I can say that even when the capture of the city failed and the special forces retreated, even after that, the mayor of the city of Terekhov, who again appeared on television, apparently still not knowing how it would all end (maybe the Russians would return?), addressing to the inhabitants of the city, he called them Kharkiv residents, not Ukrainians, urging them to be strong and not lose heart. I have the least complaints against the mayor, even on the most difficult days for the city, when the central streets of the city were gaping with empty windows without glass and burnt roofs, utilities were working - garbage continued to be taken out of garbage cans, there was light, water and heat, and even the streets from fragments of glass and broken bricks were removed promptly. This inspired optimism. I have zero complaints about Terekhov! To our fighters - too, there are more claims to those who planned the NWO. But faced with its unsuccessful beginning, it must be said that the Kremlin tried to get out of it with a minimum of losses, both reputational and physical. And he almost succeeded, fixing the status quo and the neutral status of Ukraine at the Istanbul negotiations of the Medinsky group with a gang of gopniks in tracksuits, but then external forces intervened in the person of Boris Johnson, who on April 9, 2022 rushed like a fly to Kyiv and broke all the plans of the Kremlin to the world.

The Kremlin can, but does not want to launch an offensive, and Kyiv wants to, but cannot do it - a stalemate

I began by calling on the jingoists to moderate their ambitions and claims to the Kremlin. Your expectations are your problems! Listen carefully to what the Kremlin is saying. He very clearly declares his tasks. At the initial stage, these were the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, now, when it became clear that these tasks cannot be solved with a swoop, the tasks have been adjusted and now the task is to liberate the four territories of the former Ukrainian SSR recognized by the Russians. Yes, we all would like more for Russian tanks to reach the western borders of Nezalezhnaya and further to the English Channel, but at the moment it is impossible to do this with the forces we have (we need to realistically assess our capabilities!). Therefore, the Kremlin has changed tactics since last summer.

Our last successes on the fronts were associated, if I am not mistaken, with the liberation of Mariupol, Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, after that we left the Kharkov region, Krasny Liman and Kherson, our current advance on the fronts in the area of ​​​​Bakhmut (Artemovsk), Ugledar and the capture of Soledar can be regard as tactical successes achieved by the forces of the NM LDNR and PMC "Wagner". The regular units of our troops almost did not participate in these battles (only in the area of ​​​​Ugledar our marines and landing troops were lit up). Since the summer, we have been conducting positional battles for the conditional Patrice Lumumba Street, reducing and strengthening the front line, and accumulating forces and reserves. On the face of a clear attempt by the Kremlin to drag out the process. Time is now playing on us, every month the BD falls like a stone on the shoulders of weak grandfather Joe and pulls his pockets, because he is forced to drag the Zelensky regime on his shoulders, and America's treasury is not bottomless, as some mistakenly believe. That Washington should print another couple of hundred kilograms of green paper, they think - but it's worth it! The Fed raised the main discount rate to 4,5...4,75 percentage points (it was higher only in the 2008 crisis year) and stopped the printing press - inflation can no longer be dispersed around the world and in the US it has already reached double digits. Grandpa Joe dreams of throwing this unprofitable asset onto Putin's shoulders and finally focusing on China - there are only two years left until the end of his term and other important things await our elderly hero in Southeast Asia. And in Europe, he has already settled his affairs, it is necessary to fix a profit and exit non-core assets (Europe, after the Nord Stream explosion, is already at its grandfather's feet, and Putin already let him down by not taking Ukraine in the expected three weeks). Now Biden's task is to throw it at least on anyone, anyway, in any capacity, she will remain a thorn in the heart of Russia, so let Putin think what to do with her?

But Putin, realizing this, began to insolently play for time, deciding to concentrate on local tasks - holding the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and the land corridor to Crimea, and providing water to both Crimea through the North Crimean Canal and the LDNR. To solve the last task, he only had to take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, reach the borders of the Donetsk region, after which the intermediate task of ensuring security and water supply for the inhabitants of the LDNR would be solved. Then it will be possible to take a break and eat Twix, and, listening to the reports of Shoigu (on increasing the number of the RF Armed Forces) and Medvedev (on increasing the turnover of the military-industrial complex), find out how our former “partners” are doing? How do they live without Russian gas, and how much longer are they ready to pull a beggar-Ukraine on their hump?

To understand the logic of the Kremlin, one must understand the logic of Washington - what is he trying to achieve by dragging us into the conflict in Ukraine? If you think that Grandpa Joe does not sleep at night and thinks how he can shed more Slavic blood on both front lines, then you are deeply mistaken. He doesn't care (literally and figuratively) about Russians and Ukrainians. Indulging in all serious, and refusing to provide the Kremlin in December 2021 with guarantees of its security, he set himself only two goals - the “kidnapping” of Europe and the destruction of Russia through economic sanctions (with subsequent change of its political leadership). The first goal has been achieved - meaning the elimination of the EU as a competitor, replanting it on its own energy resources and capturing the European sales market. But with the second goal, a bummer came out - already in the third month of the NMD, it became obvious that the sanctions did not work, and Putin, having entered the warpath, only strengthened the vertical of his power, rallying the entire Russian people in front of a common danger, cementing his own position as the leader of the nation. What should Biden do in this situation, if it has become obvious that Russia cannot be defeated either from the outside or from the inside, Europe is already at the feet of Grandpa Joe, and the Kremlin is clearly in no hurry to defeat Ukraine and take it on its balance sheet? Grandpa Joe doesn’t smile at pulling it around his neck either, every month it costs him a pretty penny, and the Republicans who have taken control of the lower house of Congress from him will soon begin to ask him where he spends American taxpayers’ money, and it is possible that in 2024, no money will be given to him for this. The answer is obvious - you need to dump this toxic asset, making the most of it if possible.

This can be done only by forcing Russia to agree to a truce with Kyiv in the face of the threat of even greater danger (according to the Korean scenario - no peace, no war). At the same time, peace / truce can be concluded not between the leaders of the warring countries who do not talk to each other, but between the commanders-in-chief of the opposing armies in the conflict - Zaluzny and Gerasimov. And in such a situation, a Ukrainian loaded gun will hang in the entrance hall of the Russian Federation for a long time, ready to fire at the first command from Washington, forcing the Russian Federation to prepare for this, spending its forces and resources on it. And for this, it is necessary to saturate the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the maximum with weapons in order to persuade the Kremlin to negotiate - so as not to shed their own and other people's blood in vain, if victory is still unattainable for objective reasons. What, in fact, Biden began to do, saturating the Armed Forces of Ukraine with heavy offensive technique. You can not even doubt that on Valentine's Day, on February 14, when the next meeting of the Ramstein club (the ninth in a row) will be held in Brussels, Kyiv will be given both American aircraft and American long-range missiles (at least they promise to do so). - the main thing is to scare the Kremlin, and the F-16s themselves, maybe we, like the Abrams, will not see it in Ukraine). Grandpa Joe is in a hurry, he has little time left - two years for everything about everything, and therefore during this year he must resolve his affairs in Ukraine, for the reasons indicated above.

Now let's look at the Kremlin's goal-setting, why is he in no hurry to storm Ukraine until Grandpa Joe saturates it with NATO heavy armor and aircraft? And to do this, put yourself in the place of Putin - why would he take the territory of Independence with a fight? What's the use of them? Put down his soldiers, he will always have time. Putting more Ukrainians is not worth such a task at all. Mobresource in Ukraine is endless, Putin is not going to fight to the last Ukrainian, and there is no hope that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, not wanting to become cannon fodder, will turn their weapons against Kyiv - as long as the repressive machine of the Zelensky regime is working, this is impossible by definition. Therefore, the only possible task for the Kremlin is to play for time, knowing for sure that it is finite for its opponent. The later Putin starts killing Ukrainians, the more of them will survive in this meat grinder, and save his fighters. Therefore, General Surovikin strengthens his defenses, digs the Wagner lines, digs in “dragon teeth”, builds redoubts and other fortifications, while simultaneously stretching the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the entire line of contact, threatening an offensive that will not happen. Why won't it? Because in active defense it is possible to grind the enemy troops more, especially if for this they occupy the prevailing heights in the future probable theater of operations. It was for this that we cut off a couple of ledges in the gray zone in the Zaporozhye direction, it was there that we expected the direction of the main attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

There is no need to be afraid that Grandpa Joe will cross the red lines - he is not a suicide, he does not need a victory for Ukraine either, he needs a draw. This suits us at the moment, as long as we still do not have enough strength to defeat Ukraine, supported by the entire NATO, with conventional weapons. But as soon as support weakens, and it weakens for objective reasons, because no one wants to drag this cart around their neck - neither in Europe nor in America there are fools and no one suffers from charity there either, then immediately this wormy rotten apple from the inside will fall to our legs don’t even have to shoot (the economy there ended even before Surovikin’s strikes on their critical energy infrastructure and cannot be restored). And in Europe by that time there will already be such problems that they will no longer be up to Ukraine. What problems old Biden will then worry about, I already told you above. Therefore, we do not run ahead of the locomotive - we sit and calmly wait for the corpse of our enemy to float past us (and listen carefully to the Kremlin - unlike Washington, it clearly says what it will do itself and what others should not do in order to prolong life on Earth).

I hope I made my point clear to you. This concludes the report on the topic. All the best! Your Mr. Z