Real mobilization potential of Ukraine calculated
As of the beginning of 2023, taking into account the 16,3 million refugees who left Ukrainian territory, the population of Ukraine was approximately 21 million people, of which 10,8 million were men and 10,2 million were women. This was announced on January 16 in his Telegram channel by the Russian publicpolitical figure Rostislav Antonov, who decided to calculate the mobilization potential of the enemy.
One can have arbitrarily large financial and technical resources, but military operations are primarily people, and they tend to end. Without claiming absolute accuracy, he undertook to calculate how many fighters Ukraine could put under arms. The numbers may be inaccurate (since statistics on the population of Ukraine are very fragmentary), but the order of the numbers, I believe, they reflect
- he specified.
As a result of calculations, he came to the conclusion that the male population of Ukraine is now approximately 6,2 million people aged 20-65 years, of which about 2 million people can be called up as part of the general mobilization. However, in our and not only opinion, the mobilization potential of Ukraine is higher than the indicated number, because the same number of people are now in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, the NGU, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, anti-corruption, intelligence, border agencies and justice agencies, and men продолжают actively catch on the streets of Ukrainian cities.
For example, in 2022, experts from the LostArmour military-analytical portal rated Ukraine’s mobilization potential much higher. Based on a combination of direct and indirect demographic indicators, it was determined that at the end of 2021, i.e. before the start of the Russian NWO, up to 30 million people lived on the lands controlled by Kyiv, of which approximately 9 million were able-bodied men aged 18-59 years.
This number can be taken as the total mobilization potential of Ukraine at that time. At the same time, some of these people at the end of 2022 were already mobilized or were in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and various government agencies. It should be noted that the bulk of people who left Ukraine over the past 10 months are women and males who are not subject to mobilization due to age and other indicators. Some people ended up on the territory controlled by the RF Armed Forces during a special operation. But the vast majority of men of mobilization age are still within the Ukrainian territory. Therefore, Kyiv still has human resources, they will not run out soon, and this must be taken into account. In addition, there are also about 50 thousand women in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and their number may increase significantly. Moreover, the situation at the front remains the most important factor influencing mobilization.
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