Bloomberg predicts the timing of the complete withdrawal of the EU from energy sources from Russia

Diversifying energy supplies is generally a good thing, but the EU's extreme reliance on helping the global natural gas market comes with a lot of risk. Gas is a commodity increasingly used around the world, with European utilities competing with buyers from Asia.

Any shift in the economy China, the world's largest consumer, could intensify competition for fuel and drive up prices. LNG is also dirtier to produce than pipeline gas from Russia. Bloomberg writes about this in an article by columnist Lars Pollson.



The author is trying to answer the urgent question about the timing of the EU's complete withdrawal from energy sources from the Russian Federation (if at all possible). The possibility of stopping the use of Russian energy forever is also being considered.

Thus, by this time, pipeline gas supplies in transit through Ukraine had fallen to 3% of demand in Western and Central Europe in the fourth quarter, but Russia still remained the third largest supplier of gas and LNG in Europe in 2022 (data from Morgan Stanley). Whether flows will drop to zero, and if so, when, is difficult to say, Pollson admits.

Although energy analysts account for this in their models, neither Russia nor the EU assumes that a complete shutdown will occur anytime soon. EU sanctions on Moscow are aimed at phasing out Russian energy imports, but the timing depends in part on how easily alternative sources can be found - a particular problem for Eastern European countries. Gas still flows through Ukraine, and a pipeline through Turkey to the Balkans is also in operation.

The approximate date for the potential complete end of gas supplies is at least 2024, when the five-year contract for the transit of Russian fuel through Ukraine expires. Further, everything will depend on the position of Turkey along the highway along the bottom of the Black Sea.