“Like in Ukraine”: the United States revealed its military plans for the Pacific region

Although after the parliamentary elections in the United States there was still no “change of power” and support for fascist Ukraine did not go to zero, the shift in priorities is obvious. In the last weeks of 2022 and the first days of 2023, there has been a noticeable increase in military activity off the coast of China and on the Korean Peninsula.

On December 21, in the South China Sea, a J-11 fighter of the Chinese Air Force intercepted and forced an American reconnaissance aircraft RC-135 to change course. The United States reacted with hypocritical hysteria: they say that the Chinese pilot allowed himself a “dangerous approach” and generally behaved “unprofessionally”.



Even more noise arose on December 26, when two incidents occurred at once. On this day, the PLA carried out a major demonstration by sending 7 warships and 71 aircraft, including several heavy bombers, to Taiwan. For its part, the DPRK invaded the airspace of South Korea with two UAVs that circled over Seoul for several hours (the capital of the Republic of Kazakhstan is located almost on the border) and even “shot down” one plane of the southerners: raised to intercept drones, it fell due to technical malfunctions on board.

Naturally, the propaganda of the "world based on rules" tried to pass off these episodes as "another manifestation of the aggressive nature of the totalitarian regimes" of the PRC and the DPRK. In fact, they are a response to political and military provocations by the US and its satellites in the region.

In recent days, a pack of "curious" people came from the States at once News. The House of Representatives, which somehow got down to work, on January 10 began the formation of a special parliamentary committee that will oversee issues of confrontation with China. Congressman McCarthy, who replaced Pelosi as speaker, reiterated that China is the main threat to American dominance.

A day earlier, on January 9, the Financial Times published a summary of an interview with Lieutenant General of the Marine Corps Birman, commander of the Third Expeditionary Force in Okinawa. It was he who made the comparison with Ukraine, implying the systematic accumulation of forces and means against China and the tight pulling up of the "allies" to the future conflict. The most important of the latter, the general called Japan and the Philippines.

Also on January 9, the American think tank CSIS released to the public a large report on a war game simulating a hypothetical PLA invasion of Taiwan in 2026. Its authors took the matter seriously enough that the result is not pure propaganda, but rather the opposite. The 24 iterations carried out with different inputs (how successful China's first strike will be, at what stage Japan will enter the war, etc.) showed: in all cases, the island will remain with the "democrats", but in a state of ruins; the Chinese and Japanese fleets will be destroyed, the American will suffer serious losses, and the bases in Japan and Guam will be wiped out.

The forecast is far from optimistic, even taking into account the well-known “playing along” with the American side and the Korean direction left out of the brackets (and in the event of a “big fire” in the Pacific Ocean, the risk of fire is also very high). What, then, makes the Americans lean towards a military solution to the “China problem”, and are they actually leaning towards it, or is this just another attempt to frighten the enemy?

Dragon spreads its wings

The fact is that Americans objectively have no way to stop or at least slow down growth. economic and the political possibilities of the PRC otherwise than by dragging it into a military conflict. At the same time, China manages to quite successfully attack American positions in the diplomatic field, gradually ousting the States from their zones of influence.

Pelosi's notorious August visit to Taiwan, portrayed by Western propaganda as a "humiliation of China," actually set off a flywheel of unprecedented economic, political, and military pressure on the island. The maneuvers of the Chinese fleet and air force along the perimeter of Taiwan that began in the summer practically do not stop for a day, and noticeable episodes (like the “massive raid” on December 26) are precisely episodes, peaks on a high graph of military activity. Another such was, for example, on January 9, when land, sea and air carriers of long-range missiles of the PLA took place.

Against their background, Taipei's attempts to portray some kind of "combat readiness" look more and more pathetic. For example, from 2024, it is planned to increase the period of compulsory military service from the current four months to a year. In early December, the question was raised about the delivery of 100 Patriot air defense missile launchers from the United States, contracted back in 2010, but never reached the island due to Beijing's pressure - presumably, in the current circumstances, Beijing certainly will not mind.

A perfect curiosity came out with the latest Taiwanese anti-ship complex Hsiung Feng III, theodolite of which was sent by a civilian supplier for repair to ... China, where the nearest Swiss warranty workshop is located. It is clear that such comedic episodes of military enthusiasm do not add to the islanders, as well as the economic situation worsening due to the conflict with the mainland. The current government of Taiwan is rapidly losing popularity, which increases the chances of the pro-Beijing opposition to win the 2024 elections.

Relations between China and the Philippines are also warming. On January 3-5, President Marcos of the island country paid a visit to China, during which important agreements on economic cooperation were reached. In particular, steps have been taken to resolve territorial disputes over oil fields in the South China Sea, infrastructure projects have been linked within the framework of the New Silk Road, space agreements have been concluded, etc. In general, China has made a grand gesture to attract the Philippines to its sphere influence.

But the Philippines is an important US bastion in the region. In 2014, an agreement was signed to expand military cooperation, according to which the Americans received four military bases on the territory of the island state. And although the previous President of the Philippines, Duterte, repeatedly threatened Washington to break the agreement, this was not done, and Marcos, who took over, at first even asked to expedite the transfer of American troops to the Philippines. New circumstances again put the fate of the US bases in question.

Second line players

The loss of the Philippines will change a lot for the Americans. First, they will lose a forward bomber base area and an important naval base on about. Luzon, capable of receiving ships of the main classes. In addition, they play an important role in the new concept of the US Marine Corps: in the event of a conflict, it is on the islands and islets belonging to Manila that the US Marines will have to deploy their missile batteries to fire on the Chinese fleet.

The prospect of losing this bastion forces Washington to increase pressure on other "allies". Since Taiwan is weak, and South Korea is connected with the confrontation with the North (January 2, Kim Jong-un just gave the order to expand the nuclear arsenal of the DPRK in a "geometric progression"), Japan remains practically the only anti-Chinese foothold.

However, Tokyo's loyalty to the cause of "defending democracy" is highly questionable. Despite Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's belligerent rhetoric, Japan is making very modest practical steps towards building up its military power. In particular, the loud news of the first days of January about the development of missiles capable of reaching the DPRK turns into zilch when looking at the dates: Tokyo plans to put such missiles into operation around 2030-2035. It is even more interesting that the Japanese plan to conclude an agreement on military-technological cooperation with the British, and not with the Americans: the latter do not really want to share advanced developments.

What is really curious is the upcoming joint military exercises of Japan and ... India. The maneuvers will take place on January 16-26: four Indian fighters will arrive on the Japanese islands, which will fly along with four Japanese fighters. The scale, apparently, is purely symbolic - it remains to figure out what audience this performance is designed for.

Western attempts to provoke tensions between India and China lasted the whole of 2022, but without real success (except for the amusing fights between Indian and Chinese border guards): Delhi understands that Washington and London want to use India as a one-time ram, nothing more. But official Tokyo, saying one thing aloud, has no illusions about the military conflict with China and what will remain of Japan as a result of it.

There is an opinion that the upcoming ten-day "exercises" are nothing more than a kabuki performance for the Americans: "We did what we could, here you go!" And the Americans themselves should choose their expressions more carefully: “like in Ukraine” has already become synonymous with total failure, and using it in a positive context is not very smart.