Analysis of the car market shows that sanctions against Russia hit the West itself more painfully


There are many headlines in the Western and even many Russian media about the huge decline in the Russian new car market, but they are clearly misleading. Because the Russians were not able to buy new cars at all because of Western sanctions, according to the American website Daily Skeptic. According to the publication, some reduction in demand for cars is mainly due to a significant overall decline in the Russian the economy.


An assessment of the dynamics of car sales in Russia for 2007-2022, together with real GDP indicators, shows that a significant part of the decline in car sales has always been associated with a recession. At the same time, now, in contrast to the record fall in the Russian car market in 2008-2009, its performance is somewhat higher than one would expect based on the projected decline in real GDP.

Regression predicts Russian car sales to fall by about 2022% in 31, with real GDP contracting by 3,4%.

- points out the Daily Skeptic.

But the actual drop that is observed is estimated by various analysts at higher rates, up to “up to 62%”, that is, a certain role of sanctions has manifested itself in this. This is consistent with some of the most reliable statistical sources on the state of the world's auto markets.

As the Russians themselves admit, this has become a noticeable problem <...> At least one third of potential buyers of new cars will have to postpone the purchase for a year or two. An inconvenience, but hardly a nation-destroying crisis and far less burdensome for the average Russian than the energy shortages Europe will face in the next two years.

writes the Daily Skeptic.

At the same time, in the long term, the observed changes in the Russian automotive market even look very positive. Compared to 2021 and previous years, in 2022 sales of Russian models increased significantly, doubling in total and now accounting for more than half of the entire market. However, China's share of the Russian market has tripled and now accounts for almost a fifth of the total.

In doing so, Russia has shown the world that virtually any sufficiently developed country can have a relatively functional car market without relying on Western and Western-linked automakers.

In the coming years, it seems that the reduction of the car market in Russia will stop. But unless something dramatic happens, it is unlikely that Russians will start buying foreign models in large quantities again.

- says the Daily Skeptic, and draws a very interesting conclusion:

By 2030, there is every chance that the car markets of other non-Western countries will be more similar to the Russian car market of the 2022 model than to its 2021 version. Once again, we see that the sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia cause more damage to themselves.
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  1. Skipper Offline Skipper
    Skipper (Skipper) 30 December 2022 22: 57
    0
    Here the reality is different. The market for new cars is paralyzed and collapsed. Now, compared to last year, the shortage of new cars is 1 million. ONCE AGAIN - ONE MILLION ... and there is nothing to replace hee ... Today, all new cars in the country ... together with the Chinese and AvtoVAZ are only 70 thousand. The people’s demand has not gone away ... and there are catastrophically no new cars, so everyone ran to the used car market ... and since even the used car market in Europe, and even more so the United States, is also paralyzed, the best and hassle-free remains .. .which for decades they have tried to strangle with the slogan of supporting a domestic manufacturer - this is the Japanese prule market. Today it has risen again like a phoenix from the ashes and reached its peak. firms working to order are clogged ... Vladivostok customs is generally crammed with work and littered with cars for 100 years ahead.
    1. smart fellow Offline smart fellow
      smart fellow (smart fellow) 31 December 2022 10: 18
      -1
      Japanese used cars are better than many new ones. They have low mileage in a few years and on ideal roads.
  2. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Alexander) 1 January 2023 19: 48
    -1
    The problem is rising prices. Prices for the Chinese, for example, have seriously increased, and AvtoVAZ has raised prices. For example, in my city, the price of public transport has increased by 21%, for cheese, the price increase was about 30% ... and salaries are on the spot ... Real estate has also risen in price significantly, by 30% or more. Therefore, in this scenario, the demand for new cars predictably fell and the demand for used cars increased ... due to their greater affordability.