Belorussian front: what a new attack on Ukraine from the north might look like


Recently, we are increasingly hearing forecasts that Russia may again begin to liberate the north of Ukraine. This is hinted at by the recent visit to Belarus by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and the upcoming meeting of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk. According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), during this visit, the Russian leader will try to convince his Belarusian counterpart to go to war with Ukraine, or at least help create the conditions for a new offensive from the north.


The experience of recent years shows that the plan, which everyone knows about, comes true very rarely. But even assuming that Russia will again try to open a northern or “Belarusian front” in Ukraine, how good is this plan? To date, on the part of Belarus, Ukraine has destroyed almost all bridges, mined roads and, in general, prepared quite thoroughly for such a development of events. And if 10 months ago the Russian landing in Gostomel was in some sense a surprise for the enemy, now it will not be so easy to get close even to the suburbs of Kyiv. Therefore, to achieve success in this area, our armed forces will need much more military cunning and ingenuity.

Options for attacking Ukraine from the north


In February-March 2022, our army tried to take Kyiv "in an impudent manner", attacking the capital of Ukraine almost head-on. To do this, units of the RF Armed Forces entered the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, stretching in long columns along the roads, and also trying to take control of some strategic infrastructure facilities. How it all ended, we all remember very well. Under the threat of cutting off supply lines, our units were forced to take a “goodwill step” and completely left the north of Ukraine.

If we assume that the Russian Armed Forces will again attempt to liberate the northern regions, then it is unlikely that this will happen according to the same scenario. Most likely, the main goal of the new offensive will not be the capture of Kyiv, but the fettering of Ukrainian troops by fighting in the north, as well as creating problems for the supply of Western weapons that come from Poland. To do this, the Rivne and Volyn regions, which are directly adjacent to Belarus, can become a new target for the offensive. The potential direction of such a blow could be the E373 highway, leading from Poland to Kyiv and being the so-called. European route from the Ukrainian capital.

Another option for developing an offensive against Ukraine from the north could be an attempt by our armed forces to encircle the Kyiv group by creating "big pincers" along the Korosten-Zhytomyr-Vinnitsa line. This may provide the prerequisites for the liberation of the Ukrainian capital, but for such a maneuver, our army must be very well prepared. In particular, such a plan should provide for the destruction of most of the major crossings across the Dnieper, which will prevent normal communication between enemy groupings located on different banks of this river. Also, to implement this plan, a counter strike is needed in the north-east of Ukraine, namely, all in the same Chernihiv and Sumy regions.

Consequences of a campaign to the north of Ukraine


If you look at the situation objectively, the prospects for such a military plan look very vague. This is due to two main reasons. Firstly, the enemy is now much better prepared than it was in February 2022. Zaluzhny, Zelensky, and other Ukrainian military leaders regularly cry to their Western curators and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about the possibility of a second campaign against Kyiv. Secondly, for the successful implementation of the plan to encircle Kyiv, at least 150-200 thousand people and a colossal amount of military equipment. To partially liberate the northern regions of Ukraine and create problems for the Armed Forces of Ukraine there, much fewer soldiers will be required. But all the same, the successful conduct of such an operation will require very large resources, which can only be obtained by entering into an alliance with the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus.

And here we come to the most interesting. If our president still manages to convince Alexander Lukashenko to take part in a new liberation campaign against Ukraine, the current war will take on a completely different look. With a very high probability, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin to strike already on the territory of Belarus itself, having received new long-range weapons from the Western masters. It is possible that Zelensky and the company will even manage to beg aviation and heavy armored vehicles from their curators, which will significantly complicate the solution of combat missions for our army.

Poland and the American units stationed there are also unlikely to sit idle. It is possible that in case of success of our armed forces, the Polish-American troops will openly enter the territory of the western regions of Ukraine, trying, if not to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then at least to take these territories under their protectorate. Perhaps this is what our political leadership, hoping thus to finally complete the division of Ukraine. But all this will be accomplished only if preliminary agreements are reached on this score. So far, we do not see such signs.

The result?


From the foregoing, we can conclude that a second campaign against Kyiv, or even an attempt to cut off supply lines in the Rivne and Volyn regions, is a very dangerous adventure for Russia. Of course, we all would really like to see the Kyiv regime finally fall, and Zelensky and his gang be brought to justice. But the current realities of the NMD are such that in 10 months we have not yet been able to liberate even the Donbass from neo-Nazis, where the Russian army is expected and joyfully welcomed in every city. As for the north of Ukraine, it will be even more difficult to solve serious combat missions there, because not only the regular army will be on the side of the enemy, but also the population fooled by years of propaganda.

If the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation nevertheless takes such a step, then it will require additional mobilization of resources from our country, including human resources. Is modern Russian society ready for this? Find out the answers in the comments.
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  1. Rainy Offline Rainy
    Rainy 18 December 2022 09: 08
    -2
    So far, there is still no answer to the question - for what?
    Victory is a very vague concept. Suppose the Armed Forces of Ukraine are defeated, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are on the border with Poland, and the entire territory of Ukraine is part of the Russian Federation. Victory? Victory. AND? How will the life of the Russian people change from this for the better? What is the strategic goal for which it is still necessary to mobilize the population? To then what?
    1. prior Offline prior
      prior (Vlad) 18 December 2022 09: 50
      +1
      Yes.
      Protecting the Motherland and protecting the income of the oligarchs are two big differences.
      Having won the war, what will the common people get?
      All the same rise in prices, all the same hucksters? All the same beggarly pension.
      In December, I was transferred social benefits.


      Who has such an opportunity, convey my gratitude to Sobyanin.
      1. tagil Offline tagil
        tagil (Sergei) 18 December 2022 17: 25
        +1
        it is useless to explain anything (when there were no social payments, everything was fine, they appeared, now they are dissatisfied, they will raise them, there will be little).
    2. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
      Michael L. 18 December 2022 12: 19
      +2
      So that later: NATO missiles on the adjacent Ukrainian territory.
      The collective West is coveting the natural resources of the Russian Federation. The population of Russia is a bone in his throat. Goal: the collapse of the Russian Federation and the reduction of its population to 50 million (L. Walesa). Forced displacement on reservations cannot be ruled out either. (Competing oligarchs are already being cowardly - they are depriving them of their assets and the same yachts.)
      For this, Ukraine provides manpower, and "friends" provide it with weapons and intelligence. And besides, "friends" are strangling the Russian Federation economically - with sanctions.
      Are the prospects satisfactory?
    3. ozon34rus Offline ozon34rus
      ozon34rus (ozon34rus) 18 December 2022 19: 24
      0
      For the sake of crests and others not coming, including to your home ..
  2. Vasya 225 Offline Vasya 225
    Vasya 225 (Vyacheslav) 18 December 2022 09: 28
    +1
    So far, there is not enough strength to figure it out on the left bank. That is where everything will be decided. Perhaps the left bank is the limit of the possible, and there is still a long fight to be had for it. Volyn - a gamble, to the cat. no one will go. There would be more disorganization to bring in, as far as there is enough strength. In the meantime, it will be necessary to repel the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Melitopol.
  3. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 18 December 2022 11: 02
    +1
    Why not liberate the Chernihiv region. Give it to Belarus (of course, by voting the people). The old man has nowhere to go, he sends troops to protect the new region. Send the freed military fist to Volynskaya, ... Why start with Chernigovskaya? - given the internal elite conflict between the Kyiv and Chernihiv authorities.
  4. BaTHuK333 Offline BaTHuK333
    BaTHuK333 (I. Ha) 18 December 2022 11: 42
    0
    Polish-American troops will openly enter the territory of the western regions of Ukraine, trying, if not to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then at least to take these territories under their protectorate. Perhaps this is exactly what our political leadership is counting on, hoping, thus, to finally complete the division of Ukraine.

    there will be no division of Ukraine! In ZapUkria there are the largest underground gas storage facilities, created back in the USSR. Giving them into the hands of the Americans means putting an end to Russian gas exports to Europe. Russia, I am sure, will not allow it.
  5. VICTOR VALENTINOVICH (VIKTOR VALENTINOVICH) 18 December 2022 12: 38
    0
    Thank you very much for the information! Very good analysis! Nothing to even complain about. I think that a) Ukraine will never agree to give the western regions to Poland voluntarily. I know the opinion of acquaintances zapadentsev they are categorically against it. b) I think soon hosh not hosh but for the annexation of the app. In Ukraine, the Poles will have to ask permission from Russia and very very confidentially.
  6. Vlad Sirs Online Vlad Sirs
    Vlad Sirs (Sirius NVL) 18 December 2022 12: 42
    0
    Firstly, Lukashenka will never agree to the direct participation of Belarus in the war, even if Kyiv starts shelling the border areas of Belarus today.
    In the second 10 months of the war, they showed that the RF Armed Forces were not capable of large-scale strategic operations.
    Third, the Russian Federation simply will not physically pull two fronts, eastern and northern. Well, you need to understand that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also getting stronger every month, the army of Ukraine is becoming more modern, with experience in the hardest battles in the east.
    Strategically, the war was bordered back in March, all 4 tasks with the opposite sign, the past 10 months, are confirmation of this. Now the Kremlin is relying on the Republicans and the BS in the 24th.
    1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
      Michael L. 18 December 2022 12: 51
      0
      never

      Aphoristic title of the series: "Never say never"! :-)
  7. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 18 December 2022 13: 11
    +2
    I have already written here more than once about the option of an offensive with a consistent complete power outage in the eastern regions (with the transfer of the event to the west of days in 5 - 7). This will lead to the flight of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, deprived of ammunition, replenishment, food, and the flight of the population (for us, superfluous) from cold houses without water, sewerage and food to the West. On carefully abandoned bridges.
    So no additional mobilization is needed.
    Grouping in Belarus - insurance in case of an attack on Belarus and (or) Poland's invasion of Zapukra.
    Now I want to draw attention to a number of facts of recent days in the light of history not so long ago.
    On Friday, December 16, Putin spent the whole day at the headquarters of the joint group of troops participating in the NVO.
    If anyone has forgotten, immediately before the start of the annexation of Crimea, Putin disappeared somewhere for a couple of days from the information space.
    Today, information was received that Shoigu flew around the entire line of active hostilities.
    A few days earlier, Gerasimov was there, the United States and Ukrainians say that he was almost covered there, many officers died, he survived by accident. Well, this is already so, you never know what they will say. The main thing is that he was there, preparing for Putin's visit to the headquarters.
    On February 24, NWO began. And on February 20, the Beijing Olympics ended. We have a good relationship with Xi. Putin did not spoil his holiday of life.
    For those of you who don't know, the World Cup in Qatar ends today. We now have excellent relations with Qatar, they (like the KSA) help us a lot in gas policy.
    Until they finish the game, until they leave ...
    And Christmas is coming soon in the West. Already on December 24, they will begin to relax, on the 25th they will begin to plump specifically.
    It's time to give them a present.
    I do not have insiders in the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces (as Kedmi boasts), but I see a good logical sequence of events. More than strange coincidences.
    Well, I really want this to happen.
    1. Muscool Offline Muscool
      Muscool (Glory) 19 December 2022 08: 13
      -1
      The key word here is "logical".
      The behavior of people in whose hands power is concentrated does not lend itself to any logical explanation at all. So drawing any plans based on logic is not appropriate.
  8. Rainy Offline Rainy
    Rainy 18 December 2022 20: 27
    0
    Quote from Mikhail L.
    So that later: NATO missiles on the adjacent Ukrainian territory.
    The collective West is coveting the natural resources of the Russian Federation. The population of Russia is a bone in his throat. Goal: the collapse of the Russian Federation and the reduction of its population to 50 million (L. Walesa). Forced displacement on reservations cannot be ruled out either. (Competing oligarchs are already being cowardly - they are depriving them of their assets and the same yachts.)
    For this, Ukraine provides manpower, and "friends" provide it with weapons and intelligence. And besides, "friends" are strangling the Russian Federation economically - with sanctions.
    Are the prospects satisfactory?

    Watch less TV.
    Missiles are already on the territory of the Baltic states. And now they will also be in Finland. Are you suggesting they also strike ahead of the curve?

    About resources. Do not worry. They don't belong to you anyway. It's funny, we are driving gas to the West, when the hinterland of Russia has not been gasified for so many years.

    There will be no Ukraine, Georgia will be used. Or Kazakhstan. Or Japan. And all of them will provide manpower, and the West will supply them with equipment.
    You propose to make war with the whole world? How do you like the prospects?
    1. Foe Pshekov Offline Foe Pshekov
      Foe Pshekov (Arkady) 19 December 2022 01: 22
      +2
      Rainy, and you suggest like in the 90s??? To give away the export of resources for nothing? Give enterprises to Western henchmen, salaries of $150? no taxes, closed hospitals and kindergartens, dark streets???
      Hey, uncle - everything has long been clear with the West and all its bedding. Wet and destroy. Otherwise they will destroy us. For them, we are slaves.
      PS : Or maybe you didn’t exist in the 90s ... rainy, or maybe you don’t live in the Russian Federation at all
    2. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
      Michael L. 19 December 2022 03: 50
      0
      He stepped on a sore spot - so he started with a personal attack-instruction?
      I don't discuss with them.
      I will only say that you are not intimidating with that, and that it is not I who propose to fight with the "whole world", but the collective West is already (!), de facto, at war with the Russian Federation!
      And if you are a patriot of your country - your place is ... not on the couch!
    3. Nelton Online Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 19 December 2022 15: 44
      0
      Quote: rainy
      we are driving gas to the West, when the hinterland of Russia has not been gasified for so many years.

      Gasification costs are quite high, and the smaller the n / a and located further, the greater the cost per 1 consumer.

      however, since 1990, gasification has been raised from 40 to 72%, and each subsequent % costs more and more.
      target - 83%.
    4. Ksv Offline Ksv
      Ksv (Sergei) 19 December 2022 16: 37
      0
      There are no serious missiles in the Baltic States ...
  9. Sergio63 Offline Sergio63
    Sergio63 (Sergey Petrovich) 18 December 2022 22: 14
    +1
    We do not need Kyiv yet - this is a matter of time and secondary at the moment! The main thing is to figure it out in the next two months with the Donbass, and then a raid in the Zapadenschina ... at a gallop from Belarus! It is necessary to cut off this territory from Poland, which sleeps and goes to Eastern Kresy in its composition !!? Don't give them a chance! To do all this, a GENERAL mobilization is needed! Having previously declared war on Ukraine, the consciousness of the State Defense Committee and the transfer of the entire country to martial law with all the consequences!!! No negotiations, but only an ULTIMATUM!!!
    1. Foe Pshekov Offline Foe Pshekov
      Foe Pshekov (Arkady) 19 December 2022 01: 49
      +1
      What will the declaration of "universal" give? The country could not quickly dress, put on shoes and prepare 300 thousand. The third month has gone, and half of those called up are not morally ready to fight. So continue partial, systematically gaining 100-150 thousand per month. As an option, conclude a contract with the army of the DPRK, offer them 195 thousand per month to volunteers. I think there will be many who want to destroy American accomplices.
  10. Foe Pshekov Offline Foe Pshekov
    Foe Pshekov (Arkady) 19 December 2022 01: 40
    +1
    If there is an "attack on Kyiv", then only in order to pull off combat-ready forces from the east and south. Because you don't have to be a military strategist to understand that forests and swamps are a dead place, and a rare network of roads is mined and shot down with all kinds of weapons long ago. An attack in the north-west of an independent ... option is more interesting, but there will be no less problems than Kyiv. NATO and the Poles, of course, will not officially intervene, but tens of thousands of Polish mercenaries with Ukrainian ksivs will definitely enter the war right away.
    Dill will immediately begin to hit Belarusian cities, and most likely in western Belarus there will immediately be uprisings against Minsk, which will be blamed for the death of peaceful Belarusians. Now, if on February 24 ... instead of a breakthrough to Kyiv, there was a blow to Lutsk and Lvov ... there would be a slightly different alignment. But, of course, for this it was necessary to carry out covert mobilization in advance, because. it would also be necessary to conduct a demonstrative "active movement" in the Kiev direction in order to tear the enemy on all sides. Well, of course, it was necessary for the first ten days to blizzard every day at power plants, railways, warehouses and factories. Well, and most importantly, on border railway junctions.
    And to announce that the country that supplied weapons to Ukraine will be considered to have declared war on the Russian Federation, and a nuclear strike will immediately be inflicted on it.
    1. zenion Offline zenion
      zenion (zinovy) 25 December 2022 18: 28
      0
      To make progress, you need to negotiate with the polar bears. Give the chief on the paw. They don’t understand it differently in Russia, only in the paw.
  11. Rainy Offline Rainy
    Rainy 19 December 2022 04: 46
    0
    Quote: Foe Pshekov
    Wet and destroy. Otherwise they will destroy us.

    Why don't you wet? Volunteer recruitment is underway. Lead us by example.

    Quote from Mikhail L.
    And if you are a patriot of your country - your place is ... not on the couch!

    Curious logic. Here is one of two. You write this to me either from the trench, or ... you are not a patriot))
    1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
      Michael L. 19 December 2022 14: 15
      +2
      Curious logic:

      It's funny, we are driving gas to the West, when the hinterland of Russia has not been gasified for so many years.

      According to this "logic": having destroyed the Russian statehood, the "charitable organization" of NATO will redirect gas flows and gasify the Russian hinterland!
      But you write your own demagogy: let the readers see the essence of Russian liberals - national traitors by your example!
      1. Rainy Offline Rainy
        Rainy 19 December 2022 14: 29
        0
        Ahahahaha!
        Then if you are a patriot, a true patriot of your homeland, your place is not in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but in the pro-Russian underground. But not on this site.
        And it turns out that it is we who must come to save people like you. What did you actually do yourself?
        1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
          Michael L. 19 December 2022 14: 36
          -1
          It's not for you to decide where my place is, and it's not for you to shut my mouth!
          1. Rainy Offline Rainy
            Rainy 19 December 2022 14: 47
            -1
            The person who previously decided where I should be if I am a patriot is writing.
            Be consistent in your words, otherwise such embarrassment happens. When you point out to others where their place is, but when they try to do the same with respect to you, you immediately rear up.
            1. isofat Online isofat
              isofat (isofat) 20 December 2022 14: 27
              0
              Rainy, I know where you should be! laughing
  12. Muscool Offline Muscool
    Muscool (Glory) 19 December 2022 08: 08
    +1
    Adequate schedule. I also think that we missed our chance in the north of Ukraine. And as a result of this "atomized blow in thin streams" we have today's situation. They took Kherson and part of Zaporozhye with a swoop, crushed Mariupol, and, perhaps, that’s all.
    And if all forces were thrown into the encirclement of the group in the Donbass, the war would probably already be coming to an end. This is a consequence of taking into account the wrong situation before going to Ukraine
  13. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) 19 December 2022 11: 37
    0
    The maximum that we can count on is the use of airfields and positions for firing from the territory of the Republic of Belarus.
    To do this, Lukashenka demands guarantees that return fire will be completely stopped. In order to realize this, it is necessary to bring up additional missile defense, air defense, and counter-battery forces.
    It is likely that the provision of this technique with the choice of positions used is precisely the topic of negotiations.