Is the Chinese C919 dangerous for the Russian civil aviation import substitution program

December 13 2022 18

Currently, Russia is lagging behind China in creating its own medium-haul narrow-body aircraft that could replace the products of Western companies Airbus and Boeing. The release of the Russian import-substituting MS-21 has been postponed again, this time to 2024, and the Chinese C919 is almost ready for mass (serial) production.

It should be noted that the West put a stick in the wheel of the Russian aviation industry. It was his activities that prompted Russia to actively engage in a civil aviation import substitution program, moving away from cooperation, which allowed the Chinese to get ahead. Probably, the West decided to slow down the development of at least one of the two competitors for as long as possible and chose the Russian Federation as the main goal, temporarily not touching the PRC.

The thing is that the C919 flies and will do so for a long time on bypass turbofan engines of the LEAP family (a joint venture between the French Snecma (a subsidiary of Safran) and the American GE Aviation (a division of General Electric) - CFM International). The Chinese practically did not bother about import substitution.

Therefore, there is no doubt that soon China will begin to actively offer everyone, including Russian air carriers, their C919 liners. However, not all countries will agree or be able to do this, even with well-established maintenance mechanisms and the availability of spare parts, as Western restrictions may still apply against them.

Suffice it to recall the incident that happened several years ago, when the Iranians wanted to buy 40 Sukhoi Superjet 100s to upgrade their fleet of aircraft, but the Americans did not give permission for the supply of some components and the deal did not take place. Nobody prevents the United States from repeating this, but China will definitely provide its huge market, and perhaps even grab pieces in Asia, Africa and South America.

Given this, the Chinese C919 will not be able to negatively affect the import substitution program for Russian civil aviation. Moscow simply has no other choice but to bring what it started to a successful conclusion. About the competition of Russian aircraft manufacturers with the Chinese Comac, and even more so with the European Airbus and the American Boeing in the international markets in the next five years, it will not be necessary to speak for sure. However, this is not so important, because the main thing is to preserve the domestic market and shares in countries that are under Western sanctions for aircraft manufacturers from the Russian Federation. At the same time, the number of aircraft produced in Russia is really important, the production of which must be increased from dozens a year to hundreds, then competition will become real, otherwise there will be little sense.

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Shamil Rasmukhambetov

-4

13 December 2022 20: 27

It will be as always, we will start buying aircraft in the PRC, we will forget about our own 100% as it always happens and we will call it MS-22, we will fasten the nameplate made in Russia.
1. Vdars
  
  +1
  
  13 December 2022 20: 39
  
  Not all are the same deceivers like you, Shamil!!
Rubicon

-3

13 December 2022 21: 22

On the 24th they will be transferred to the 28th, etc. MS21 is not needed by anyone. Collectors only
Sergey Latyshev

+2

13 December 2022 22: 31

The article is not signed. Rather, the author himself does not believe in it ...
Berton

+4

13 December 2022 23: 20

Dangerous. There is a danger that there will be no production at all in the country.
All this has been going on for 22 years.
Today I was in the shopping center Grand. Chose a chandelier. Germany, Poland, China, Spain, Italy.
Somewhere in the farthest corner there is a small Russian exposition of a few meters.
In the lower price segment. Accordingly, you understand the design and materials.
A few meters in a total area of a couple of thousand. Here is the result of efficiency and productivity.
For the first time I was in South Korea about 14 years ago. Surprised by the lack of Mercedes, BMW and the Japanese.
To my question, why, the answer is, oh, it's too expensive, All Asian, as they are commonly called, tigers built their economies through customs duties. And we are in the role of a gullible simpleton bear.
1. whitebeard
  
  0
  
  17 January 2023 18: 53
  
  Well, the lower price range also needs to be filled by someone. And in Korea now there are cars of a quality similar to competitors, which cannot be said about the Russian Federation. Duties are duties, but the same Koreans worked very hard on their car industry, and the government not only imposed duties, but also created conditions for the development of its car industry, instead of stupidly flooding the losses of insufficiently efficient automakers with budget money, as is done in the Russian Federation.
ivan2022

+2

14 December 2022 04: 06

The Chinese have created a huge industry on their original Western technologies. But no one put sticks in them anywhere.

For some reason, sticks were inserted only for us .... Some dancers are disturbed not only by other people's sticks and planes, but also by their own ... organs
1. Vdars
  
  0
  
  14 December 2022 18: 52
  
  And just think a little why you stick sticks to us, and not to the Chinese - will it be weak for you ?!
2. Fizik13
  
  0
  
  18 December 2022 11: 50
  
  Quote: ivan2022
  The Chinese have created a huge industry on their original Western technologies. But no one put sticks in them anywhere.
  
  Sanctions in 1987 due to the suppression of the student beam in Beijing.
  and now in China there are about 50 large firms under sanctions.
  If necessary, the Americans will introduce something else against China, they never cancel them, they only introduce new ones.
3. whitebeard
  
  0
  
  17 January 2023 19: 00
  
  No, sticks were also inserted into them, for example, it is forbidden to supply microprocessor technologies and second-purpose technologies there. But they, of course, have a completely different attitude towards their own production than in the Russian Federation, this is true.
lance is gone

0

14 December 2022 07: 37

if China starts pushing them for selling oil, then this is a threat and a huge
kriten

0

15 December 2022 09: 44

The US will not tolerate this for long. Everything technologically modern they will crush in China, like Huawei for example. As soon as they start doing more than 1 piece, sanctions will be included so that the loss is greater.
Nelton

0

15 December 2022 09: 50

Hmm, everything is correctly written in the article that the C919 has a lot of American components, including engines, and it also falls under the ban on deliveries to the Russian Federation, just as the SSJ-100 once fell under the ban on deliveries to Iran.
Tellingly, even Iran did not want to take the Tu-214, which does not fall under the ban.
wladimirjankov

0

15 December 2022 16: 20

the Chinese traveled around us in the creation of a medium-haul narrow-body aircraft, although they began developing the project much later than we did with the MS-21. Of course, the sanctions slowed down the UAC, but why couldn’t they have been foreseen and not bet on Western components and systems. After all, there was already a negative experience with the superjet. It is not clear what is now preventing the MS-21 from being put into production. It seems that according to the loud statement of the leaders of the KLA, they now have everything for this. Its own PD-14 engine, wings made of its own composites, its own control systems. navigation, etc. And the aircraft has not yet been certified and not put into production. Scheduled deadlines are broken and constantly shifted. One gets the impression that the matter is not only in the sanctions, but also in the ability and desire to work of the top managers of the UAC, their competence and organizational skills.
1. Nelton
  
  0
  
  15 December 2022 17: 11
  
  Quote: wladimirjankov
  although they started developing the project much later than we did with MS-21.
  
  Almost simultaneously, and for a long time they went nostril to nostril.
  
  Comac c919-
  the beginning of the program - 2008,
  first flight - 2017 (with aluminum wing and imported engines.),
  built copies - 9 pcs
  first flight with Chinese engines - not even in the plans
  the first flight with a wing made of Chinese composites - not even in the plans
  
  MS-21
  program start 2007
  First flight 2017 (with a wing made of imported composites and imported engines.)
  built copies - 6 pcs.
  first flight with PD-14 - December 2020
  first flight with a wing made of Russian composites - December 2021.
  
  everyone would work like the creators of MS-21.
2. whitebeard
  
  0
  
  17 January 2023 19: 04
  
  C919 - initially a much simpler aircraft, almost completely metal, there are few composites, it will only take the market for its cost. MS-21 is much more advanced, the first among commercial narrow-bodies in this segment with a composite wing. The engines, again, will now be completely their own, albeit forcedly. And as our "analogue" of the C1, we have the Tu-919/214, which also should not be discounted in the current conditions
The comment was deleted.
whitebeard

0

17 January 2023 18: 58

Probably MS-21 and S919 will coexist in our market, because. the production of our aircraft will initially be small. Well, in principle, the Chinese may not even dare to supply C919 to our market, because. there are a lot of imported kits, which will be forbidden to be delivered to us. Therefore, the scenario not with the purchase of S919, but with Tu-214/204, is also quite likely. There was already infa that Aeroflot insists that the Tu-214 be delivered to it with 2 crew members, and Tupolev replies that they do not have the technical ability to reduce the crew, because resp. they do not have avionics.
vlad127490

0

21 January 2023 13: 39

For the Russian Federation, with its near-zero industry, everything is dangerous. What to discuss? There is MS-21, Tu-204/214 and also Il-96, produce 100 aircraft a year, fill the Russian market, and do not search for how not to make and not let a Russian aircraft go. Do not engage in sabotage.