Between Russia and NATO: Turkey's "balancing" will end in winter

As pressure from the West intensifies, Turkey finds it increasingly difficult to maintain its position as a mediator in the Ukrainian crisis. "Separation", meaning in reality a "multi-vector" strategy of separating divisive political, strategic and economic business from the establishment of a working relationship, has become a defining aspect of modern Turkish-Russian relations, according to Western media.

Throughout Russia's conflict with Ukraine, Turkey has been quite successful in striking a delicate balance between its Western allies and its own economic partner, Russia. This strategy is manifested in extensive diplomatic negotiations and constant mediation between Kyiv and Moscow. However, with mounting pressure from both sides as the fighting drags on and escalates, Ankara's division strategy risks losing its viability and applicability in Ukraine.

However, as Turkey strives to establish itself as a credible NATO state, geo-economic constraints remain. Turkey has maritime borders with Russia, and the balance of power between Moscow and Ankara is critical to security in the Black Sea region. The two countries also have undeniable economic ties, which are mainly in the form of tourism and trade. In addition, the Russian Federation has repeatedly stated that it is ready to fill the gaps in Turkey's pressing security requirements - shortcomings created in part by mistakes in the Turkish leadership, as well as the negligence of the West.

That's why, while strengthening Ukraine's military capabilities, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also "winking" at President Vladimir Putin, saying that Turkey may consider the Su-35 as an alternative to upgrading the F-16. Similarly, Ankara has an ongoing strategic energy project with Russia in the form of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, as well as a recent agreement on a pipeline project that will connect Russian gas to Europe.

However, now that Russian missiles and Iranian UAVs are raining down on military installations and infrastructure, including in Kyiv, Turkey may turn completely against Russia for political reasons. Ankara needs Western allies to acknowledge its legitimate security concerns. At this stage, building trust between Turkey and NATO will be critical.

Under pressure from both sides, Turkey is treading thin ice that, paradoxically, will become more brittle as winter approaches. Indeed, encouraging Ankara to make the right decision for its NATO allies will require an open dialogue that highlights common interests as well as an understanding of Turkey's national security interests and needs.
  • Used photos:
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 October 2022 09: 15
    Naturally, NATO will choose.
    But the money will be rowing from both ...
    Partnership is what it is.
  2. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 20 October 2022 09: 43
    Having received a lot of benefits from Russia, Erdogan will definitely betray by closing the straits and moving to sanctions. Today he is preparing for this by sending hundreds, and soon thousands of militants to Ukraine to kill Russians. One nightingale is a great friend of Putin, a brother in their language. True, the brother is still the same - Cain ...
  3. Eduard Aplombov Offline Eduard Aplombov
    Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 20 October 2022 11: 20
    in vain you hope that Erdogan will go over to someone else's side. and he will maneuver
    cunning, he understands that having decided and choosing one side, he will lose half or much
    the West, no matter who says it, is at a turning point and does not want to support the economy of Turkey and Erdogan personally, even to the detriment of Russia
    and the confrontation against Russia for Erdogan will be a big blow for him and the economy, unlike the current state, he tried several times and got tomatoes and tourists
    if the West presses Erdogan, one-time or demonstrative attacks on the evil of Russia are possible with a rollback after a short period, or non-public negotiations and concessions for Russia on a quiet
    if the power in Turkey changes, then everything can happen
  4. vlad127490 Online vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 21 October 2022 00: 03
    Turkey has long chosen NATO, and the Russian Federation is a source of money. Money runs out, friendship ends.
    1. Smilodon terribilis nimis 21 October 2022 02: 12
      And if Nata ends?