When Belarus will become part of Russia
Recently, more and more can be found news that Belarus will become part of the Russian Federation. It should be noted that such statements are by no means new and in one concentration or another have always been present both on the Internet and in print media of dubious quality. In most cases, these news feeds were not supported by anything serious, which, however, did not prevent some people from believing what was written. What has changed now, what is the likelihood that Belarus may cease to be an independent state and whether Belarus is needed as part of Russia? Let's try to understand in more detail.
As mentioned above, many have long predicted a loss of independence for the Republic of Belarus, and indeed - policy “Take a loan to give a loan” is clearly not an indicator of the country's prosperity and development. If we add to this the general low standard of living of the population outside large cities, liquidation, or an absolute inability to maintain at least once large plants, then it becomes clear to the average person that the country is going through hard times.
Thoroughly added fuel to the fire and the statement of the head of the country, which was made this summer in Shklov. Alexander Lukashenko noted then that the current situation is comparable with the military. “Belarus is now on the front line. And if this war is lost, then you will have to join some other state. ” Which state was not specified, but this is clearly not the United Arab Emirates. This statement was immediately picked up by the opposition media, and until now they have systematically forgotten to throw firewood into this bonfire.
Now, each meeting of the leaders of Belarus and Russia is interpreted as another small step towards the loss of independence of Belarus. You don’t have to go far for examples; right now in Mogilev there is a Forum of Regions with the participation of politicians and leaders of the two states. Of course, such an event could not go unnoticed, and to him, on the contrary, they were unreasonably assigned the status of “one more step on the way to the Russian Federation”. Of course, no one cares that the goals of this meeting are completely different.
Individuals who consider themselves to be in the opposition do not disdain to use not the most honest tricks in order to cause discontent among the residents of the host city. So, the main trump card was the news of blocking the entrance and the main street of the city.
Of course, for the entire duration of the Forum of the Regions, no one was going to completely stop traffic, but the information was provided in a completely different way. Many sources reported that due to road blocking, two sleeping areas — Kazimirovka and Sputnik — would actually be cut off from the city, and people simply could not get to their jobs. Of course, this is not true, and the roads are blocked only temporarily, which, although it causes inconvenience, is not as global as predicted. But the process has begun.
Leaflets and graffiti appeared on street lighting poles and stops, offering Vladimir Putin to go home. It is clear that such a phenomenon is a planned action that does not reflect the real attitude of the residents of Mogilev neither personally to Vladimir Vladimirovich, nor to the Russian Federation as a whole. But discontent is still present. It was directed, first of all, to local authorities, who urgently repaired the very central street all summer, substantially slowing down the traffic flow on it and making it impossible to walk on sidewalks in some sections, suggesting instead to put mud.
If we touch upon the very issue of Belarus joining the Russian Federation, to which there were no obvious prerequisites, besides the rash statement of Alexander Lukashenko, the opinion of the population of Belarus has already begun to change. If a couple of years ago, virtually every resident of the country was in favor of living in a separate independent country. Now, many see this absorption as a way out of the crisis, in which Belarus was bogged down in 2010. And although this opinion is not the majority, but it already has a place to be.
But we will not consider the situation one-sidedly. It would be logical to ask a question: does Russia need Belarus as part of a united state, not a union state? So what can Belarus offer to Russia? The control over the borders with the EU countries seems to be as it is now. Placement of military bases? So Belarus is only happy about this, since it is a means of maintaining its own army. Minerals? Here you can mention potash fertilizers, but no. Could there be developed production facilities to become an assembly shop, as it was under the USSR? Unfortunately not either. You can still recall the nuclear power plant, which should be launched in the near future, but this is a very weak argument.
As a result, we obtain that there are no obvious advantages for Russia. Another region will appear that will try to actively pull on a budget blanket. And Belarus has more than enough experience in this, not even being part of the Russian Federation. It turns out that such an acquisition on the territory suffers rather only losses.
The content of such a neighbor, namely, as a neighbor, has some positive aspects, albeit few. The main advantage is the presence of a buffer zone, which does not concern Western sanctions. And let Belarus warm up its hands on this, it’s better than being completely cut off from the rest of the world.
It would be unfair not to notice that Belarus’s independence has long been rather arbitrary. To be objective, it is thanks to the constant infusion of funds from Russia, debt forgiveness and special energy prices that the country is at least somehow making ends meet.
You can endlessly look at how Alexander Grigorievich is trying to create the appearance of a multi-vector policy, but everyone understands that if you try to join the EU, you will have to change a lot. To everything else, you can still then remain with nothing and useless to anyone. Examples are the neighbors behind the western fence. As it turned out, the European Union is not Russia and just does not give anything, but in order to get something, you have to work hard.
What conclusions can be drawn from everything that is written above? First of all, this is of course the conclusion that the issue of Belarus joining the Russian Federation should not be taken seriously. If such an opportunity was discussed, then at the moment it is unlikely that such an event will happen, since Russia will benefit little from this, and the current government of Belarus will undermine popular trust, which is already a little. If we look to the future, then with a change in the current geopolitical situation and a serious deterioration of affairs within the Republic of Belarus, we cannot exclude the possibility of a unification of the two countries. It’s only necessary to consider this not as “the Russian aggressor is swallowing up peaceful Belarus,” but rather a favor to the detriment of itself, since in this case Russia will have another region in which it will be necessary to invest without return.
Like it or not, but so far it is much more profitable for Russia to see Belarus as a neighbor, and not part of the country.
As mentioned above, many have long predicted a loss of independence for the Republic of Belarus, and indeed - policy “Take a loan to give a loan” is clearly not an indicator of the country's prosperity and development. If we add to this the general low standard of living of the population outside large cities, liquidation, or an absolute inability to maintain at least once large plants, then it becomes clear to the average person that the country is going through hard times.
Thoroughly added fuel to the fire and the statement of the head of the country, which was made this summer in Shklov. Alexander Lukashenko noted then that the current situation is comparable with the military. “Belarus is now on the front line. And if this war is lost, then you will have to join some other state. ” Which state was not specified, but this is clearly not the United Arab Emirates. This statement was immediately picked up by the opposition media, and until now they have systematically forgotten to throw firewood into this bonfire.
Now, each meeting of the leaders of Belarus and Russia is interpreted as another small step towards the loss of independence of Belarus. You don’t have to go far for examples; right now in Mogilev there is a Forum of Regions with the participation of politicians and leaders of the two states. Of course, such an event could not go unnoticed, and to him, on the contrary, they were unreasonably assigned the status of “one more step on the way to the Russian Federation”. Of course, no one cares that the goals of this meeting are completely different.
Individuals who consider themselves to be in the opposition do not disdain to use not the most honest tricks in order to cause discontent among the residents of the host city. So, the main trump card was the news of blocking the entrance and the main street of the city.
Of course, for the entire duration of the Forum of the Regions, no one was going to completely stop traffic, but the information was provided in a completely different way. Many sources reported that due to road blocking, two sleeping areas — Kazimirovka and Sputnik — would actually be cut off from the city, and people simply could not get to their jobs. Of course, this is not true, and the roads are blocked only temporarily, which, although it causes inconvenience, is not as global as predicted. But the process has begun.
Leaflets and graffiti appeared on street lighting poles and stops, offering Vladimir Putin to go home. It is clear that such a phenomenon is a planned action that does not reflect the real attitude of the residents of Mogilev neither personally to Vladimir Vladimirovich, nor to the Russian Federation as a whole. But discontent is still present. It was directed, first of all, to local authorities, who urgently repaired the very central street all summer, substantially slowing down the traffic flow on it and making it impossible to walk on sidewalks in some sections, suggesting instead to put mud.
If we touch upon the very issue of Belarus joining the Russian Federation, to which there were no obvious prerequisites, besides the rash statement of Alexander Lukashenko, the opinion of the population of Belarus has already begun to change. If a couple of years ago, virtually every resident of the country was in favor of living in a separate independent country. Now, many see this absorption as a way out of the crisis, in which Belarus was bogged down in 2010. And although this opinion is not the majority, but it already has a place to be.
But we will not consider the situation one-sidedly. It would be logical to ask a question: does Russia need Belarus as part of a united state, not a union state? So what can Belarus offer to Russia? The control over the borders with the EU countries seems to be as it is now. Placement of military bases? So Belarus is only happy about this, since it is a means of maintaining its own army. Minerals? Here you can mention potash fertilizers, but no. Could there be developed production facilities to become an assembly shop, as it was under the USSR? Unfortunately not either. You can still recall the nuclear power plant, which should be launched in the near future, but this is a very weak argument.
As a result, we obtain that there are no obvious advantages for Russia. Another region will appear that will try to actively pull on a budget blanket. And Belarus has more than enough experience in this, not even being part of the Russian Federation. It turns out that such an acquisition on the territory suffers rather only losses.
The content of such a neighbor, namely, as a neighbor, has some positive aspects, albeit few. The main advantage is the presence of a buffer zone, which does not concern Western sanctions. And let Belarus warm up its hands on this, it’s better than being completely cut off from the rest of the world.
It would be unfair not to notice that Belarus’s independence has long been rather arbitrary. To be objective, it is thanks to the constant infusion of funds from Russia, debt forgiveness and special energy prices that the country is at least somehow making ends meet.
You can endlessly look at how Alexander Grigorievich is trying to create the appearance of a multi-vector policy, but everyone understands that if you try to join the EU, you will have to change a lot. To everything else, you can still then remain with nothing and useless to anyone. Examples are the neighbors behind the western fence. As it turned out, the European Union is not Russia and just does not give anything, but in order to get something, you have to work hard.
What conclusions can be drawn from everything that is written above? First of all, this is of course the conclusion that the issue of Belarus joining the Russian Federation should not be taken seriously. If such an opportunity was discussed, then at the moment it is unlikely that such an event will happen, since Russia will benefit little from this, and the current government of Belarus will undermine popular trust, which is already a little. If we look to the future, then with a change in the current geopolitical situation and a serious deterioration of affairs within the Republic of Belarus, we cannot exclude the possibility of a unification of the two countries. It’s only necessary to consider this not as “the Russian aggressor is swallowing up peaceful Belarus,” but rather a favor to the detriment of itself, since in this case Russia will have another region in which it will be necessary to invest without return.
Like it or not, but so far it is much more profitable for Russia to see Belarus as a neighbor, and not part of the country.
Information