The National Interest: The conflict in Ukraine will not end with the victory of Moscow or Kyiv


Russian leader Vladimir Putin seems to have initially expected that the Russian special operation in Ukraine, which he launched in February 2022, would quickly lead to the capitulation or even the fall of the government of Vladimir Zelensky. This did not happen due to fierce resistance from Ukraine due to large-scale Western (especially American) arms supplies to the republic. Within six months, the conflict had entered a torturous phase of attrition. As President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged, Russian troops occupy approximately 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason University, writes about this in an article for The National Interest.


But while Western-backed Ukrainian forces have been able to thwart further advances by the Russian army, Kyiv looks unlikely to be able to push the Russian military back across the border. However, neither side appears to be ready for a ceasefire, and so the war will continue, possibly for months or even years.

However, as the professor writes, in the end all wars ended. How can this happen in the conflict in Ukraine? It is possible that, despite the difficulties Moscow faces now, Russia will somehow manage to turn the tide and achieve its original goal of forcing the surrender or overthrow of the Zelensky government. On the other hand, Western-backed Ukrainian forces could, in some incredible way, push the Russians out of many, if not all, of the territories they previously seized.

Wars, however, do not necessarily end with one side militarily defeating the other. There are other ways in which wars of attrition can end, such as internal collapse or a situation where neither side is able to defeat the other after years of fighting and both sides are willing to accept a ceasefire due to unacceptably high the cost of the war. It seems highly likely that neither Russia nor Ukraine will be able to win a military victory, so the hot phase of the conflict between them will continue until either side collapses or each gives up its attempt to defeat the other.

This is the most likely scenario. The least improbable is the one that provides for the triumph of one of the parties, since the situation in Ukraine will not end with the victory of Moscow or Kyiv. Such a development of events, based on the centuries-old world experience of interstate confrontations, is not visible, the expert concluded.
  • Photos used: pixabay.com
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  1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 29 August 2022 09: 59
    +3
    The same The National Interest writes

    The West was predicted an uncontested loss in Ukraine

    https://lenta.ru/news/2022/08/29/no_chance/
    The old principle of Khoja Nasreddin works: "Either the donkey dies, or the padishah dies"
    1. Corsair Offline Corsair
      Corsair (DNR) 29 August 2022 11: 17
      +6
      Quote: k7k8
      The National Interest writes

      And you should probably think - what is wrong with the SVO, and what in its course gives various experts a reason to put forward versions about its possible failure ...
  2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 29 August 2022 10: 00
    -6
    The National Interest: The conflict in Ukraine will not end with the victory of Moscow or Kyiv

    - It seems that the time has come to build very powerful fortifications along the line of military operations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of Ukraine! - Personally, I see no other way out! - It's time to start creating powerful lines with defense in depth along the entire perimeter of hostilities! - The forces of the RF Armed Forces are clearly not enough to continue attacking throughout the entire area of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbhostilities and break through the front line! - It remains only - to go on the defensive! - It is necessary to pull up military builders, military construction equipment, building materials and start building fortifications! - In the conditions of the summer period - it will be much easier and less costly to do - than during the onset of cold weather!
    - Well ... - to build up strenuously, to prepare a real "breakthrough army" (with well-armed and equipped divisions) - and not brigades and battalions, which did not justify themselves in such a huge sector of hostilities!
  3. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 29 August 2022 10: 00
    +1
    The conflict in Ukraine will not end with the victory of Moscow or Kyiv

    Name at least one media outlet that doesn't lie?
    What makes the National Interest different from others?
    In order to say that "nothing has begun yet," I think Putin had good reasons.
  4. Sydor Kovpak Offline Sydor Kovpak
    Sydor Kovpak 29 August 2022 10: 01
    +2
    The main thing is not to let the West win. And Moscow will deal with Kyiv somehow. It's none of their business (NI) and it's not for them to discuss it...
  5. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 29 August 2022 10: 22
    +4
    Comrade Katz is greatly mistaken.
    Ukraine is a bargaining chip. The main thing is to defeat Europe. And this should not be achieved by military action.
  6. Fizik13 Offline Fizik13
    Fizik13 (Alexey) 29 August 2022 10: 25
    0
    The National Interest: The conflict in Ukraine will not end with the victory of Moscow or Kyiv

    And the victory of Fashington?
    Oh, those Yankees, they stick their nose everywhere. They screwed up in Afghanistan, now they want to become winners here.
    When We successfully complete the CBO, these overseas bastards will still squeal that they won, they say, doves of PEACE.
    As in the 2nd World War at the very end, they flew in kings. Now almost all of America thinks that they defeated Hitler, and the USSR just helped them, soon they will forget about the USSR altogether.
  7. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 29 August 2022 10: 27
    0
    Moscow. August 29th. INTERFAX.RU - More than 50 military personnel will be involved in the Vostok-2022 strategic command and staff exercise (SKSHU), which will be held on September 1-7 at the training grounds of the Eastern Military District (VVO), in the waters of the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbOkhotsk and the Sea of ​​Japan, the Ministry of Defense reports RF.

    "In total, over 2022 military personnel, more than 50 pieces of weapons and military equipment, including 5 aircraft, 140 warships, boats and support vessels, will be involved in the Vostok-60 maneuvers," the report says.

    It is clear that not all 50 will be Russian. But I think that the vast majority.
  8. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 29 August 2022 12: 38
    +3
    By analogy with Crimea, the calculation on the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine did not materialize
    Fierce resistance from Ukraine is not due to large-scale Western (especially American) arms supplies, but due to the global agitation industry, which became especially active after the annexation of the Crimean province to the Russian Federation.
    Initially, Ukraine fought with its weapons, then the West collected from all over Europe and post-Soviet state formations all the available Soviet and Russian weapons to make up for Ukraine's losses. After the Soviet and Russian in the West dried up, deliveries of not the most modern of their warehouse stocks began. After the NATO warehouses began to empty, the Western military-industrial complex began to gain momentum in the production of modern weapons, which will gradually begin to appear in Ukraine in the near future.
    It is very likely that neither Russia nor Ukraine will be able to win a military victory.
    Medinsky's negotiations with Ukrainian nationalists in Belarus and Turkey ended in failure. As a condition for the start of peace negotiations, the nationalists demand the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, the DPR-LPR and all other people employed during the NWO, and the Russian Federation is seeking the exact opposite - recognition of the referendum in Crimea, the DPR-LPR and the results of voting on those employed during NWO territories.
    Therefore, the hot phase of the conflict will continue until one of the parties collapses or each gives up its attempt to defeat the other, which is unlikely given the support of Ukraine and the political and economic interests of the West in the “decolonization” of the Russian Federation.
  9. greenchelman Offline greenchelman
    greenchelman (Grigory Tarasenko) 29 August 2022 15: 05
    0
    Katz offers to give up
  10. having an opinion (Sergey Rusanov) 30 August 2022 10: 44
    +2
    It's funny to read the arguments ... Just imagine how the troops will take Kharkov? If this happens "according to an adult", then there will be nothing left of the city, but it won't be possible to take it differently yet, YET it won't work, for this they grind those who want Svidomo, and then we'll see ...
  11. Peace Peace. Offline Peace Peace.
    Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 31 August 2022 19: 42
    0
    They wrote that the flight time of Almaty to London is 2 minutes with seconds, is this the total time from the start?