The risk of an offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Transnistria is growing


August 2022 is already fading away, and the counter-offensive against Kherson promised by President Zelensky has not yet taken place. On the contrary, Russian troops seized the initiative and themselves began to crush the enemy, biting off from him all the new territories in the South-East of Ukraine. The criminal Kyiv regime is noticeably losing direct support in the collective West, and therefore some kind of resounding and unconditional victory is vital for it. So in what direction can a decisive blow to the Armed Forces be dealt?


To understand it, you need to look at the map of the theater of operations, and also take into account such factors as the need to supply the fighting armies with weapons, ammunition, fuel and fuel and lubricants.

So, for Russia, the Nikolaev-Odessa direction is strategically important. The RF Armed Forces are gradually approaching Nikolaev. After its blockade and capture, a direction to Odessa will open, the release of which will solve many problems at once.

At first, Kyiv will be finally cut off not only from the Sea of ​​Azov, but also from the Black Sea, which even theoretically will deprive it of the opportunity to be supplied by sea. It will also allow Moscow to take control of the main trade routes through which Ukraine exports, which will allow it to dictate almost any conditions to Kyiv.

Secondly, from the Odessa region, a path will open to Western Ukraine, a strike on which will allow Russian troops to finally cut off Central Ukraine from any military supplies from the countries of the NATO bloc - weapons, ammunition, fuel and fuel, medicines and other things. After such a successful operation, the capitulation of Kyiv is objectively a matter of time, even without the encirclement and the capture of the capital by storm Nezalezhnaya. You can't fight on sheer enthusiasm.

Thirdly, the liberation of the Odessa region will finally solve the problem of the isolation of Transnistria, the most pro-Russian enclave, an unrecognized state, sandwiched between the main part of Moldova and Ukraine.

All this is obvious and well known, including to our opponents. That is why the battle for Odessa is expected to be the most fierce, and the most likely direction for a preventive strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is, alas, Transnistria.

What will the capture of Tiraspol give Kyiv?

First of all, this is a resounding and undeniable victory over the Russians. The geographical position of Transnistria, stretched along the river, simply does not allow organizing an effective echeloned defense on it. Russian peacekeepers are few in number, do not have heavy strike weapons and are not covered by air defense systems. Unfortunately, for the Armed Forces of Ukraine it will not be any problem to suppress the positions of our military and the Armed Forces of the PMR with artillery, and then pass from above with a "skating rink" of armored units.

Alas, one should not count on a miracle here. Yes, the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Russian Navy will fire missiles at the advancing Ukrainian columns, but it is in the Odessa region that one of the largest concentrations of long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, plus, as part of Western assistance, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will soon receive modern Norwegian-made air defense systems, which will provide very effective " umbrella" air defense.

In addition, in addition to the purely media effect, the Kyiv regime can get useful benefits from the victory over the Russians. One of the main problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine today is a noticeable shortage of shells for Soviet-made artillery. It is in the military warehouses in the Pridnestrovian Kolbasna that a huge stock of shells, mines and bombs is stored, which can later be used against the RF Armed Forces. Slightly more than half of them are “rotten” due to age, but even the rest will be enough for more than one war.

The temptation for Zelensky, who failed the counterattack on Kherson, may be too great: to utterly defeat the Russians, solve the problem of shell hunger, and also secure his rear in the Odessa region.

The only obstacle holding Kyiv back so far is that the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic is unrecognized, and everyone, including Chisinau, Kyiv itself, and even Moscow, is considered legally a part of the Republic of Moldova. That is, the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Transnistria will be considered an aggression of Ukraine against sovereign Moldova. But how reliable is this "protection"?

In Chisinau, they are very afraid of the exit of Russian troops to Odessa on the border of Transnistria, because after that the status of this enclave will change dramatically, and for supporters of the ideas of uniting Moldova with Romania, it will be lost. Simultaneously with Transnistria, Gaguzia, located in the south, bordering on the Odessa region, will also be lost. Gagauzians hate Romanians, and in a referendum held in 2014, 98% of them voted in favor of rapprochement with Russia and joining the Customs Union. Over the past years, Chisinau has been gradually preparing to solve the problem by military means, gradually pumping up the army with modern weapons, sending its military for advanced training in Romania according to NATO standards. Recently, the Moldovan police special forces conducted a demonstration exercise in Gagauzia with the express purpose of scaring the locals.

In other words, the entry of the RF Armed Forces to the border with Pridnestrovie can start an armed conflict already in Moldova, up to the entry of Romanian “vacationers”. Therefore, it is very likely that as the Russian troops advance in the southwestern direction, Kyiv and Chisinau may try to solve the problem of Transnistria, and at the same time Gagauzia, preventively.

For this, it will be enough for "unknown snipers" to fire at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Odessa region from the territory of Pridnestrovie, which will become a formal reason for conducting a special military operation. From Chisinau it will be enough not to protest strongly, but to show understanding for the need for Ukraine to eliminate "Russian terrorists" on its own officially recognized territory.
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  1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 27 August 2022 15: 12
    +6
    Does Ukraine have additional opportunities to open ... a second front, without diverting forces from the line of hostilities?
    And if everything goes well for the Ukrainian side, will she voluntarily return Pridnestrovie to Moldova by laying down the heads of her servicemen? Or will we already have ... the Ukrainian-Moldovan conflict?
    1. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
      Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 27 August 2022 18: 20
      0
      Quote from Mikhail L.
      Does Ukraine have additional opportunities to open ... a second front, without diverting forces from the line of hostilities?
      And if everything goes well for the Ukrainian side, will she voluntarily return Pridnestrovie to Moldova by laying down the heads of her servicemen? Or will we already have ... the Ukrainian-Moldovan conflict?

      removed from the tongue, if the Nazis begin to accumulate reserves on the border with Pridnestrovie, then, firstly, they will expose other fronts, and secondly, Russia will completely reach these groups and begin to destroy them, with calibers, and without the accumulation of reserves, the offensive will not work, thirdly, the mobilization of Pridnestrovians from payment of military 200 thousand per month, will not allow the Nazis to advance, while Russia can speed up the movement from Kherson due to the protection of its citizens in Transnistria by increasing the grouping at times and including conscripts, after the mobilization of Pridnestrovians, you will get such a large group (in the image and likeness of the mobilization of the DPR and LPR) that neither the fascists nor the Moldovans will be greeted, and the Russian Federation will receive a lot of infantry ... the fall of the Moldovan junta regime due to gas prices .. especially comparing with these prices in the PMR, will bring pro-Russian politicians of Moldova to power or repaint adequate ones from the old ones, into this situation, no mobilization of the Moldovans for the war with the PMR will work right now, and they know about the losses of the fascist ov 1000 people a day and for small Moldova this is not physically acceptable and Moldovans are not fools
      1. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
        Pat Rick 27 August 2022 19: 36
        -3
        mobilization of Pridnestrovians with payment of combat 200 thousand per month,

        I wonder where these 200 thousand a month will come from for some kind of mobilization of Pridnestrovians.

        because of the protection of its citizens in Transnistria

        And from whom or from what should these citizens be protected? No one attacks, except for local frenzied dreamers.

        ... the fall of the regime of the Moldovan junta ...

        practice shows that popular riots in Moldova have practically no success.

        will bring to power the pro-Russian politicians of Moldova

        Voronin is already too old, they have already eaten Dodon, and there is simply nowhere to take others. Tkachuk won't get more than 5% in any election.

        mobilization of Moldovans for the war with the PMR will not work now

        Moldovans are not going to attack the PMR. Even Sandu said that only in a peaceful way.

        For reference: 355.000 people live in Transnistria, of which 346.000 have citizenship of the Republic of Moldova.
    2. Corsair Offline Corsair
      Corsair (DNR) 27 August 2022 19: 18
      0
      Secondly, the way to Western Ukraine will open from the Odessa region,

      M-m-m-yes ... Entertaining geography turns out recourse
      So, when the Russian troops were standing near Kyiv and Zhytomyr, they didn’t see the way to the memory there ...

      Somehow from the history of the Second World War, I don’t remember that through Odessa (South), the Red Army moved further to the West.

      Is it myopia when planning SVO, or brainlessness?
      1. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
        Pat Rick 27 August 2022 20: 53
        -3
        Somehow from the history of the Second World War, I don’t remember that through Odessa (South), the Red Army moved further to the West.

        After the Odessa offensive operation in March-April 1944, the troops of the 3rd Ukrainian Front during the Iasi-Kishinev operation on August 31, 1944. occupied Bucharest. Chisinau was liberated a week earlier.
        And he doesn't remember lol
        1. Corsair Offline Corsair
          Corsair (DNR) 28 August 2022 19: 16
          0
          Quote from Pat-Rick
          After the Odessa offensive operation in March-April 1944, the troops of the 3rd Ukrainian Front during the Iasi-Kishinev operation on August 31, 1944. occupied Bucharest. Chisinau was liberated a week earlier.
          And he doesn't remember

          And this is all Western Ukraine??? belay
          1. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
            Pat Rick 28 August 2022 22: 13
            -1
            so that through Odessa (South), the Red Army moved further to the West.

            West is Bucharest.
            Although you have places - the West, places - memory.
    3. Fizik13 Online Fizik13
      Fizik13 (Alexey) 28 August 2022 12: 42
      0
      Dear Mikhail L., You forgot remote denazification.
      In order to attack, you need to gather a lot of people and equipment, well, they won’t attack with one company. But to mess up, they know how.
  2. Victor 17 Offline Victor 17
    Victor 17 27 August 2022 15: 59
    -3
    what an amazing flight of fancy and what should be discussed?
    1. timeslot Offline timeslot
      timeslot (time slot) 27 August 2022 17: 22
      +1
      Not necessary. The author prefers to cut himself in the comments laughing
  3. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
    Pat Rick 27 August 2022 16: 11
    -5
    the liberation of the Odessa region will finally solve the problem of the isolation of Transnistria, the most pro-Russian enclave, an unrecognized state, sandwiched between the main part of Moldova and Ukraine.

    There is no isolation of Transnistria there. Tn isolation is created by politicians who have been figuring out for more than thirty years which of them is the most important.
    Pro-Russian enclave? - According to the leadership of the PMR and some part of its population, Russia is the best in comparison with the Romanians or Moldo-Romanians who are in power in Bessarabia. How many presidents there were in Moldova, including the "communist" Voronin (8 years old) and the "socialist" Dodon (4 years old), no one could solve the issue with Transnistria and never will be able to.
    For Ukraine, the western direction is the calmest, so opening a war in the fourth direction would be an incredible stupidity, which the Ukrainians will never go for. For what, you ask? Those Soviet ammunition still needs to be captured, they will most likely be blown up by the contingent guarding them, therefore, all such texts are annoying rehashings of old songs that have been circulating here for many years.
  4. zuuukoo Offline zuuukoo
    zuuukoo (Sergei) 27 August 2022 16: 38
    +1
    March 2022: having mobilized the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they will conduct a large-scale counteroffensive in May.
    May 2022: The Armed Forces of Ukraine have formed a powerful shock fist in the Kharkiv region and will deliver a powerful blow in June, reaching the rear of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donbass.
    June 2022: The Armed Forces of Ukraine formed a powerful shock fist for the counteroffensive on Kherson in August.
    August 2022: The Armed Forces of Ukraine formed a powerful shock fist to strike at Transnistria.
    Продолжение следует ...
  5. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 27 August 2022 17: 54
    +4
    With a blazing vast bonfire of the NWO in Ukraine, fires in Transnistria cannot be avoided. That is why it is better to prepare, but it is better to start the deblockade ourselves, with breaking through the territory along the left bank of the Dniester with the outlet of Pridnestrovie to the Black Sea, then the situation will become more favorable for Pridnestrovie. Breaking through the Ukrainian left bank of the Dniester is a fairly correct operation, taking the Odessa fortified area in pincers, which is next in line after Nikolaev. Here again, more significant forces are needed, otherwise strategic operations cannot be carried out. And what, without great strength, then small-grass NWO and marking time ...
  6. Dmitry Volkov Offline Dmitry Volkov
    Dmitry Volkov (Dmitry Volkov) 28 August 2022 08: 50
    0
    The landing brigade of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can quickly resolve this issue and within 50 hours a march from Kherson with XNUMX troops from support aircraft will remove the issue of the Black Sea coast of the outskirts.
  7. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) 28 August 2022 11: 07
    +4
    Quote: Dmitry Volkov
    The landing brigade of the RF Armed Forces can quickly resolve this issue and within a day a march from Kherson with 50 troops with aviation support will remove the issue of the Black Sea coast of the outskirts.

    Such thoughts were still possible until March 2022.
    Now the landing brigade of the Russian Federation can occupy the outskirts of the village and sit there for a month without moving forward, at least half a shed a week.
    The reasons for this tactic are unknown to us. There is strength, there is will, but there is no willpower.
    If people with character and other iron accessories were sitting in the Kremlin, then one should say:

    Tomorrow I will have breakfast in Tiraspol, and if at least one bullet falls in Transnistria, I will have lunch in Chisinau and dinner in Bucharest

    (A.I. Lebed).
  8. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) 28 August 2022 12: 15
    +2
    These words of A.I. The swan confirmed the powerful art. a blow to the places of accumulation of Moldovan nationalists on their own territory. Everything became clear to everyone. The fighting stopped immediately. They are still not there. But there are no such people as General Lebed!
  9. Oleg V. Offline Oleg V.
    Oleg V. (Oleg Vladimirovich) 28 August 2022 13: 48
    -2
    The author tired with his analytical reviews on the topic "Everything is lost."
  10. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 28 August 2022 14: 49
    0
    It is not clear how Ukraine will attack if there is only one smoke break and one salvo left of the Ukrainian army. They don’t have anything and won’t have anything anymore, because the partisans cut the railways, and bombed the airfields. Another thing is if the Ukrainian troops want to surrender to Transnistria, and not to Russia. Then everything becomes clear. There is a law in Pridnestrovie that those who managed to run to their territory, they are not issued to anyone. The Russian army will only have to bite its lower lip, or maybe both, if possible.
  11. Rust1981 Offline Rust1981
    Rust1981 (Rustam) 1 September 2022 19: 41
    0
    Quote: vladimir1155
    Moldova is not physically acceptable and Moldovans are not fools

    Sounds like a challenge