What deters China from conducting a special operation in Taiwan


In response to the provocative visit of the Speaker of the Lower House of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi, expected any day to Taiwan, China began large-scale naval exercises in the strait separating the island from the continent. If Beijing nevertheless decides on its own special operation to return Taiwan, occupied by anti-communist separatists, then not only Eastern Europe, but also Southeast Asia will go up in flames. It will already be possible to speak directly about the hot stage of the Third World War. What are the American “elites” trying to achieve, and when can we really expect the start of the Chinese NWO?


Island of bad luck


China, like Russia with its Kaliningrad, Kuril Islands and Transnistria, is also lucky to have its own "hot spots". These are Tibet, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Hong Kong and Taiwan. If in Hong Kong against the PRC the British are "muddying the waters", then in Taiwan the Americans are doing it.

The problem of the island arose in 1949, when the Kuomintang forces led by Chiang Kai-shek, who lost in the civil war with the Communist Party of China, moved there. Informal relations and business ties with mainland China resumed in the 80s, but Beijing does not recognize Taipei's independence, considering Taiwan to be its province.

The position of the United States on this issue is highly ambiguous. On the one hand, Washington formally adheres to the principle of "one China", on the other hand, it guarantees the security of the island from attempts to seize it by force. President Joe Biden promised military assistance to Taipei, which caused fury in Beijing and demanded additional clarifications, according to which only the supply of American weapons to the separatists was implied. It was about F-16V fighters, SRZO with long-range missiles and anti-ship missile systems, as well as the provision of intelligence and targeting data by the Pentagon, similar to the Ukrainian events. The idea is to turn the "island of bad luck" into a kind of porcupine that will be too painful to attack.

In other words, the United States is definitely not going to intercede directly for Taiwan. Then what does Uncle Sam achieve by sending a third person in the government system to an island that China claims as its own?

The expected visit of Nancy Pelosi has already led to the start of unscheduled naval exercises of the PLA Navy. After that, the Americans will be able to point the finger at China and say, they say, you see, they are really preparing to attack, so we urgently need to supply Taipei with defensive weapons that will make the amphibious assault impossible, as near Odessa. And this, all the more, can speed up the timing of the Chinese special operation to "demilitarize" and "communize" Taiwan. Why does Washington need it?

The overall context must be taken into account. China is the main competitor to the United States in economicsfollowed by the European Union. After the start of the Chinese NMD in Taiwan, the Americans themselves will impose sectoral sanctions against the PRC and force their European allies (vassals) to do so. The analogy with the Ukrainian events is complete. In response, Beijing itself will impose sanctions against the US and the EU. The blow to the global economy will be colossal, comparable in consequences to a full-scale World War.

The Celestial Empire, tied to exports to Western markets, will sag very strongly in all respects. Europe, already suffering from the consequences of the conflict with Russia because of its special operation in Ukraine, will be knocked out. The United States will also suffer greatly, but its industrial potential, the presence of its own natural resources and a capacious domestic market will make it easier to survive the consequences of the global economic crisis. After that, the capitalist economy will restart, and the American "elites" will again get rich in its new cycle on the takeover of bankrupt competitors and the "Marshall Plan-2".

The scheme is quite working. It remains to figure out exactly when it can be applied.

semiconductor question


The answer to the question lies in the quite unique status of Taiwan. This small island is of great importance for the world economy, since more than 50% of all manufactured microprocessors and over 90% of the most advanced and advanced developments are concentrated here.

The Taiwanese company TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) has a market share of semiconductor chips of 52,1%, another Taiwanese company UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) - 7%. For comparison, the closest competitor from South Korea, Samsung, has a share of only 18,3%. These processors are needed everywhere today - in smartphones, tablets, cars, servers, game consoles, household technology, modern weapon systems.

Taiwan, with its entire microelectronics industry, is a giant "prize" for China if its special operation succeeds. That is why there are big doubts that the Americans will allow Beijing to get the production facilities intact. In the event of the outbreak of hostilities, all these factories are likely to be deliberately destroyed so as not to go to a direct competitor. In any case, there will be problems with the supply of microchips for export. And this alone can provoke a real crisis, because then the undisputed leader with his products, which is urgently needed by everyone, will disappear from the market.

Thus, while the critical dependence of the world economy on Taiwanese processors remains, the island is better protected from a large-scale invasion from the sea than any American SSB and air defense. However, this will not continue indefinitely.

In 2020-2021, Taiwan, with its humid climate, suddenly faced an unusual drought. Rivers began to dry up, fresh water reserves in reservoirs dried up, and it is necessary in the process of industrial production. It got to the point that Taipei cut off the supply of water both to farmers and for the personal use of its citizens, directing it to the needs of the semiconductor industry. Either this was the impetus, or a premonition of a Chinese special operation, but last year the process of a gradual withdrawal of production capacities from Taiwan began.

For example, in Arizona, TSMC built a new plant in addition to the one already in Washington state. The US authorities are ready to launch a large-scale program to subsidize the semiconductor industry in the hundreds of billions of dollars on its territory. The European Union has set a goal of doubling the production of microprocessors by 2030. Intel Corporation intends to invest up to $20 billion in the construction of new factories in Germany, France, the Netherlands or Belgium. Beijing is ready to invest $1,5 trillion in semiconductor import substitution through the joint efforts of its Huawei, Alibaba and SenseTime, luring specialists from Taiwan. Now between the island and the mainland there is an informal wage race for highly qualified employees. South Korea intends to increase the production of microchips by building a full production cycle. India will invest 11 billion in import substitution of semiconductors.

As you can see, all the world's leading economies are actively preparing for problems in Taiwan. (The only pity is that Russia is not on this list.) When is a real special operation possible for China to return its rebellious island?

Then, when the main actors, China and the United States, are ready. It is from these terms that it is worth dancing in building forecasts for the Chinese NWO.
29 comments
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  1. cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 31 July 2022 16: 10
    0
    And the Russian leadership, alas, is sleeping on this issue ...
    1. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 31 July 2022 18: 38
      +1
      Why is he sleeping? After all, the guarantor said that without Russian neon, their microelectronics would die. And Marzhetsky answered the question of when the Chinese one would be. Never. They will transfer all production to Europe and America and China will not need this island for nothing
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 31 July 2022 19: 09
        -1
        Marzhetsky answered briefly and clearly

        Somewhere it is customary to copy other people's posts. Here it is customary to copy my comments. Posts are not published.
        Here is a comment to the post https://topcor.ru/26505-moment-istiny-tretja-mirovaja-otmenjaetsja-telefonnaja-diplomatija-nakanune-otkrytija-vtorogo-fronta.html#comment-id-257904 dated June 28th.

        Actually, China's takeover of Taiwan is nothing new.
        Here is a post from October 23 last year https://topcor.ru/22285-ssha-delajut-uverennyj-shag-k-vojne-s-kitaem.html#comment-id-197339.
        In a comment to him, I wrote about the inevitability of this capture, explained the reason for this inevitability, indicated the deadline. I wrote before, too lazy to look.
        So, in this matter, the most interesting thing is why China has not yet attacked.
        In my opinion (this is purely my point of view), the reason here lies in the creation of a new reality by Putin on February 24.02.2022, XNUMX.
        What used to seem easy and simple now makes Xi dumbfounded.
        Xi was supposed to capture the island somewhere before the end of May, the edge - the middle of summer. He almost missed this deadline.
        What is the reason? The capture of Taiwan is needed by Xi in order to please the people with the return of the island "to its native harbor" and to explain the upcoming deterioration in living standards by the US intrigues for the capture. Plus, the island has technologies for the production of such chips that cannot be produced in China.
        On such a positive, Xi will win the elections, which are coming in the autumn.
        But on February 24, Putin began the NWO. With military affairs, China is not very good. No one knows how the PLA will fight, including the commanders of the PLA. Not to mention C. All this is understood purely theoretically, "on the fingers", according to the results of the exercises. The experience of their successful wars is stupidly NO!
        Watching the NWO video, Xi could not help but appreciate the sights of Azovstal.
        It seems to have dawned on him: no one can guarantee that the production of these chips will go to him safe and sound. Rather, on the contrary, the United States will do everything to ensure that this production is destroyed along with qualified personnel.
        Taiwan provided a very large supply of such chips on a global scale. Compensate for such a drop in volume is unlikely to succeed. And China, as the culprit (and it will be made the culprit, even if all production is shot by Ticonderoga) of the rout, will receive these chips either last or not at all. Now he gets them from Taiwan.
        How this will affect China's production is simply hard to imagine. High-tech products will become inaccessible to China. The standard of living of the people will fall below the level of the city sewer. It's easy to imagine how happy China and Taiwan will be to lose production of these chips. Xi will only have to lather the rope.
        Basically an oil painting.
        And the procrastination of the capture of the island is probably due to blackmail by the United States, which rolled out an exorbitant price to China for transferring Taiwan with the entire production of chips.

        And there is another idea here. But I didn't post it in the comments. And Marzhetsky does not have it.
        Ohhh, damn professionals...
        No mind, no fantasy...
        1. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 31 July 2022 19: 12
          -3
          By the way, pay attention to + - to my comment. dated 28 June. That says something about the level of commentators here...
      2. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 31 July 2022 19: 51
        +1
        After all, the guarantor said that without Russian neon, their microelectronics would die.

        This is probably news to you, but the articles that appear here without a signature are not at all a text written by the president. I’ll say more - these are not even Peskov’s texts.
        1. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 31 July 2022 20: 38
          -2
          What does Peskov have to do with it? Also me, the criterion of truth.
          Marzhetsky is also not Peskov. Who you are, no one knows.
          If you press the nickname boriz, you will find a couple of posts that were, after all, published. There is my first and last name. Authentic.
          Just reading the posts serious content, you expect the author to be able to present their thoughts. And they come true over time. At least sometimes.
          If the post goes without a signature, then this is a copyright, there are no complaints. But then it is customary to indicate the source.
          1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 1 August 2022 04: 21
            0
            I didn't write this to you. See the quote at the top of the comment.
  2. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 31 July 2022 19: 06
    +1
    When is a real special operation possible for China to return its rebellious island?
    Then, when the main actors, China and the United States, are ready.

    Two delegations will come to Moscow - from the USA and China. And they will begin to coordinate the start date of the special operation.
    They will argue, give arguments, quote Shura Balaganov and Cicero, spit and shout obscene slogans. And as soon as the stern arbiter B, B. Putin will give the go-ahead - they will disperse to their countries in order to start a war at the agreed time.
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 31 July 2022 19: 34
      -3
      In this case, Putin has nothing to do with it. This is Comrade Xi's situation. How he will get out of it is purely his problem. He is already losing face. Putin's popularity in China is growing. Many call him Great Putin in the networks. But Comrade Xi turns a little pale. He began to utter many words and make many small gestures, without supporting them with serious actions. Unlike Putin.
      Here they believe (primarily Marzhetsky) that the United States will wait until they start producing chips. But this is a serious misconception. They could provoke Xi's attack even tomorrow (if they don't win substantial concessions). And they will win. After all, this is not about the interests of the United States (global financiers don't give a damn about them).
      1. The comment was deleted.
  3. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 31 July 2022 19: 47
    +2
    Quote: boriz
    after all, it is not about the interests of the United States (global financiers don't give a damn about them).

    How is it possible to separate them? Interests of the USA and their financiers. In my opinion they are identical.

    As for China, it will not start a war with the United States on its own initiative.
    From this we must dance.
    US initiative.
    They can open the regime of maximum military assistance to Taiwan, up to the creation of military bases on the island. This is the whip for China.
    And they can wash their hands and say - figure it out yourself. This is gingerbread for China.
    The price of the question of what will be the stick or the carrot is a game according to the rules of the West. That is, full support for sanctions against Russia.
    The question: what is more valuable for China - Taiwan or relations with Russia - is a very interesting one.
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 31 July 2022 20: 28
      -4
      How is it possible to separate them? Interests of the USA and their financiers. In my opinion they are identical.

      You swim lightly. The United States is the same occupied country as the Russian Federation and the vast majority of countries in the world. Just occupation in varying degrees. And the US has been and still is a tool of global financiers. But the United States is no longer able to fulfill its functions.

      As for China, it will not start a war with the United States on its own initiative.

      Well, I see, Xi is not a stupid person. And the US will not go to war with China. It’s just that when China captures Taiwan, it will throw several dozen Tomahawks at the centers for the production of the most advanced chips. At least in terms of exhibiting equipment, together with qualified personnel. This will be enough. The goal of the financiers will be achieved.

      The question: what is more valuable for China - Taiwan or relations with Russia - is a very interesting one.

      The issue of Taiwan has nothing to do with relations between Russia and China.
      Putin solved his problems in Ukraine. Xi must show the appropriate ability to solve his problems in Taiwan. Otherwise, he will fly out of politics (if not out of life). And he has very little time. Just time pressure. His time ended at the beginning of June.
      1. John2212 Offline John2212
        John2212 2 August 2022 14: 49
        -4
        If everything was as you want, the whole world would still walk in bast shoes. Not to fight, but to trade. Need to think. And not something to break everything, ruin, destroy.
        1. guest Offline guest
          guest 2 August 2022 15: 08
          +3
          Quote: John2212
          Where the USA is, there is peace, prosperity and well-being of the people.

          Tell it in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 31 July 2022 20: 23
    -1
    On the eve of the XNUMXth Congress of the People's Republic of China, shocks are not needed, but it is also impossible to yield to the USA. Comrade Xi said it clearly: China does not want war, but it is not afraid of war either. It's up to the USA.
    I suppose the senior bosses do not allow aunt Pelosi to fly to Taiwan, but in order not to hit the face in the dirt, Taiwan can fly to aunt Pelosi in Singapore, for example, or wherever they say.
    In the event of a sanctions war, the USA and the EU will lose incomparably more than the PRC.
    Firstly, the consequences of the war with the Russian Federation are already straining
    Secondly, a break with China will simply bring down their economy,
    Thirdly, no one can replace the PRC market with it, and the PRC has a program of double circulation (a huge solvent domestic market and an external one - ASEAN, an example of the Russian Federation in surviving in conditions of a political economic blockade and the experience of the USSR in the pre-war years.
    Taiwan is a microelectronics assembly shop, just as the PRC was once the world's consumer goods factory. The equipment is Dutch, raw materials and semi-finished products are imported, and the longer the supply chain, the easier it breaks. The only possible prize for the PRC is scientific and technical personnel if they are not taken away in time, as SS Fuhrer Brown and his colleagues were once taken to the USA.
    The PRC is making great efforts to create its own production of microprocessors and all critical microelectronics, and they have no equal in terms of graduates and program funding. 5G networks in China are like 4G in the Russian Federation, they fly to the moon, digital renminbi is a common occurrence. This creates the prerequisites for fulfilling the task of transition to technical and technological leadership. As they say in the USA, no matter who does what well, in China there will always be someone who does it better.
  5. weddu Offline weddu
    weddu (Kolya) 31 July 2022 20: 33
    +2
    ..restrains prudence. If the US recognizes Taiwan's independence, war cannot be avoided. But, if the US merges Taiwan, for the sake of geopolitical interests, don't expect good things, including from China... We have already gone through this. For all this, the United States, like, transferred Hong Kong and Taiwan to China, but as it turned out, they transferred it, but not quite ...
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 31 July 2022 20: 41
      -4
      But if the US merges Taiwan...

      Can be merged without chip production. And who needs such Taiwan? Including the population of Taiwan?
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 1 August 2022 10: 16
        0
        The technology is Dutch, production facilities are being built in the USA and Korea. Taiwan will simply become one of the manufacturers, that's all. Need a Taiwan? Definitely yes. Even if you do not take into account the political component, then the economic one is quite seductive.
  6. NatiKoshka_87 Offline NatiKoshka_87
    NatiKoshka_87 (Ela) 1 August 2022 02: 57
    -5
    I wonder why China suddenly considers the island of Taiwan its territory? Because in the past Chinese anti-communists in the person of the Kuomintang led by Chiang Kai-shek fled there and built their own mini-China, or because China so wants to, feeling the imperial appetite?
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 1 August 2022 10: 20
      +2
      I wonder why China suddenly considers the island of Taiwan its territory?

      Indeed, why would? Just think, the Chinese live there and speak Chinese. Well, for a long time they were a single state with mainland China. It's such a trifle!
      Ask any Nazi from the territory of the former Ukraine and he will say that Taiwan is American or Japanese soil.
    2. weddu Offline weddu
      weddu (Kolya) 1 August 2022 15: 26
      0
      Taiwan is de jure part of China, de facto a separate state. In 1992, the parties met in Singapore and agreed that China is one and indivisible. China and Taiwan are not different states. At the same time, under the "united China" each of the parties meant something of its own.
      In the course of the 2000s, relations between China and Taiwan alternated between getting better and then again reaching a dead end. In 2015, the leader of the island nation visited mainland China for the first time in 66 years.
      Now Taiwan is recognized by 23 countries: Belize, Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Gambia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Dominican Republic, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Nicaragua, Palau, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Sao Tome and Principe, Solomon Islands, Swaziland, Tuvalu and the Holy See. In general, very small and not very rich states.
      The country has no embassies. Formally, their functions are taken over by cultural and economic representations.
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 1 August 2022 16: 54
        +3
        But what about the Great Baltic Tiger - Lithuania? She seems to have recognized Taiwan and informed the world community that she is ready to fight for the freedom of the island to the last Ukrainian, sorry I mixed it up - to the last Taiwanese. And imposed sanctions against China. China will no longer be able to supply Lithuania with peat and firewood. And - never. That's so tough. Yuan collapsed.
        1. weddu Offline weddu
          weddu (Kolya) 2 August 2022 11: 14
          0
          That's right, and Lithuania ..)
      2. guest Offline guest
        guest 2 August 2022 15: 03
        +1
        Nicaragua withdrew the call.
    3. John2212 Offline John2212
      John2212 2 August 2022 14: 55
      -2
      Taiwan probably needs to consider China its own. And if more, maybe everything? Far from it. Russia has been breaking its teeth about Ukraine for 6 months. She won't burn anything. So small doesn't mean weak.
      1. weddu Offline weddu
        weddu (Kolya) 2 August 2022 23: 09
        0
        Would you like carpet bombing of residential areas in Kyiv, as the United States did in Belgrade, in order to achieve a quick surrender? And then what? What to do with these people then? Donbass was bombed and spread rot for 8 years, and you wanted quick solutions? Why and where to hurry? The Ukrainian people should be gradually reformatted and there is no need to rush. Ukrainians must feel that Bombas (Donbass) is not somewhere far away, but already on a neighboring or their street.
        Hiding behind civilians and bombing your people, that's the whole glory of Ukraine. Russia, having a grouping several times smaller than the Ukrainian one, is systematically pushing it on all fronts, saving its soldiers and civilians, that's the glory of Russia.
        But there is no hurry, time is working for Russia, the world is getting more and more tired of this war, counting losses, looking for ways out of the energy and food crisis, governments have already fallen in Europe, in the USA they laugh at Biden, as we once did over Brezhnev , and Trump the clown is no worse. Let's wait and see, winter is on the way, and Ukrainian heads will cool too.
        Note that only regular military personnel, part of contract soldiers and volunteers participate in the SVO, and no one plans to send conscripts and reservists to Ukraine, there is no question of mobilization at all.
        ..and in Ukraine they are already calling for pensioners, and the heroes, having received awards from the hands of Zelensky, prefer to go to jail than to return to the front line ...
  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 1 August 2022 10: 41
    -4
    What deters China from conducting a special operation in Taiwan

    IMHO, brains.
    China has previously successfully "peacefully" agreed on a number of territories, or "almost peacefully", so why should it rush and destroy ties?
    The carrot and stick method also works well. And its own electronics ... in spite of everything, it seems to be ahead of the Russian one anyway, and much ...
  8. John2212 Offline John2212
    John2212 2 August 2022 14: 33
    -2
    Nancy Pelosi did not plan to visit Taiwan. All propaganda.
  9. Aslan777 Offline Aslan777
    Aslan777 (A A) 3 August 2022 04: 02
    +1
    Author, what do you want to provoke by putting Kaliningrad and the Kuriles on a par with Transnistria? The first two are indisputable regions of Russia, but what does Transnistria have to do with it?
  10. Yuri Bryanskiy Offline Yuri Bryanskiy
    Yuri Bryanskiy (Yuri Bryansky) 4 August 2022 16: 24
    0
    Sergey is smart. I hope for the best in microelectronics, but I doubt Manturov. He talked a lot about import substitution, well ...